diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv
index 668f83e..2d3b9f8 100644
--- a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv
+++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv
@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021. The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.33380000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.2263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.2775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","8","8",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.3189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.2256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.1333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22329999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.1989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.1233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","9","9",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.31670000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.028300000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6","6",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.0313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.4987,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.2987,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","9","8",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.39799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.055999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2929,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.35710000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","8","7",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
-","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21969999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","53","52",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2208,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","52",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","86",2
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","142","120",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","122",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.42450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.21239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","43","41",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
@@ -20,13 +20,13 @@
"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","121","106",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","85",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053399999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","97","86",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30269999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","119","110",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35259999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","39",2
+","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2041,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.3615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","39",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
-","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","99",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1291,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","99",3
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security."" The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","50","47",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
@@ -38,14 +38,14 @@
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273","180",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
-","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10779999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","127",3
+","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","127",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","154",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","101",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16829999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.15439999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","101",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","124",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
-","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","135",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13470000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","191","137",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.44520000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042699999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","69",3
\ No newline at end of file
+","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.45189999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27399999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","70",3
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
index bc2a86b..d660232 100644
--- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json
+++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
@@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0475,
+ "probability": 0.0433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.115,
+ "probability": 0.11220000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.33380000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.3189,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2263,
+ "probability": 0.2256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2775,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "8",
- "numforecasters": "8",
+ "numforecasts": "10",
+ "numforecasters": "9",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -43,32 +43,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.0333,
+ "probability": 0.1333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.3333,
+ "probability": 0.3211,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.2267,
+ "probability": 0.1989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.23670000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.1233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "3",
- "numforecasters": "3",
+ "numforecasts": "9",
+ "numforecasters": "9",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -79,32 +79,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.0333,
+ "probability": 0.0313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1567,
+ "probability": 0.145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.465,
+ "probability": 0.4987,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.31670000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.2987,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.028300000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.0263,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "numforecasters": "6",
+ "numforecasts": "9",
+ "numforecasters": "8",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -115,32 +115,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
- "probability": 0.14800000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28800000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.2929,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.39799999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.35710000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.0771,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.055999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.0429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "5",
- "numforecasters": "5",
+ "numforecasts": "8",
+ "numforecasters": "7",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -151,31 +151,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.0394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1125,
+ "probability": 0.1042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.21969999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.3431,
+ "probability": 0.3531,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2747,
+ "probability": 0.2825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "54",
"numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -217,8 +217,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "120",
+ "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasters": "122",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -337,32 +337,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.053200000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.053399999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21309999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.1985,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.3461,
+ "probability": 0.3546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.2373,
+ "probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.1503,
+ "probability": 0.1512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "97",
+ "numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -409,31 +409,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.0426,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0885,
+ "probability": 0.0819,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.2148,
+ "probability": 0.2041,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.35259999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.3615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3015,
+ "probability": 0.3126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "45",
+ "numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -445,12 +445,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.1276,
+ "probability": 0.1291,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
- "probability": 0.4341,
+ "probability": 0.4371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -460,16 +460,16 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.1085,
+ "probability": 0.1063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.0301,
+ "probability": 0.0279,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "125",
+ "numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -621,26 +621,26 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.038,
+ "probability": 0.0379,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.10779999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.24239999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6118,
+ "probability": 0.6144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "202",
+ "numforecasts": "203",
"numforecasters": "127",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -688,31 +688,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
- "probability": 0.063,
+ "probability": 0.0629,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1637,
+ "probability": 0.16829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
- "probability": 0.3233,
+ "probability": 0.3226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
- "probability": 0.295,
+ "probability": 0.2919,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
- "probability": 0.155,
+ "probability": 0.15439999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "101",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -745,32 +745,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
- "probability": 0.0676,
+ "probability": 0.0665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1405,
+ "probability": 0.13470000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
- "probability": 0.2122,
+ "probability": 0.21170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.2672,
+ "probability": 0.2741,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
- "probability": 0.3125,
+ "probability": 0.313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "188",
- "numforecasters": "135",
+ "numforecasts": "191",
+ "numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -781,32 +781,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
- "probability": 0.44520000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.45189999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2731,
+ "probability": 0.27399999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
- "probability": 0.1523,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
- "probability": 0.0867,
+ "probability": 0.0825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
- "probability": 0.042699999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.0417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "69",
+ "numforecasts": "117",
+ "numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/estimize-questions.csv b/data/estimize-questions.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e8c2fde
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/estimize-questions.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,507 @@
+"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
+"Estimates for Security (Symbol)","https://www.estimize.com/symbol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","https://www.estimize.com/mmm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","https://www.estimize.com/abt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)","https://www.estimize.com/abbv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)","https://www.estimize.com/abmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Accenture (ACN)","https://www.estimize.com/acn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)","https://www.estimize.com/atvi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)","https://www.estimize.com/adbe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)","https://www.estimize.com/amd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)","https://www.estimize.com/aap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AES Corp (AES)","https://www.estimize.com/aes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Aflac (AFL)","https://www.estimize.com/afl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)","https://www.estimize.com/a","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)","https://www.estimize.com/apd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)","https://www.estimize.com/akam","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)","https://www.estimize.com/alk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)","https://www.estimize.com/alb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)","https://www.estimize.com/are","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)","https://www.estimize.com/alxn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)","https://www.estimize.com/algn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)","https://www.estimize.com/alle","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)","https://www.estimize.com/lnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)","https://www.estimize.com/all","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)","https://www.estimize.com/googl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)","https://www.estimize.com/goog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)","https://www.estimize.com/mo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)","https://www.estimize.com/amzn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)","https://www.estimize.com/amcr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)","https://www.estimize.com/aee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)","https://www.estimize.com/aal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)","https://www.estimize.com/aep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American Express (AXP)","https://www.estimize.com/axp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American International Group (AIG)","https://www.estimize.com/aig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)","https://www.estimize.com/amt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)","https://www.estimize.com/awk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)","https://www.estimize.com/amp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)","https://www.estimize.com/abc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ametek (AME)","https://www.estimize.com/ame","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)","https://www.estimize.com/amgn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)","https://www.estimize.com/aph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Analog Devices (ADI)","https://www.estimize.com/adi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""ANSYS (ANSS)","https://www.estimize.com/anss","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)","https://www.estimize.com/antm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Aon plc (AON)","https://www.estimize.com/aon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)","https://www.estimize.com/aos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)","https://www.estimize.com/apa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)","https://www.estimize.com/aapl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)","https://www.estimize.com/amat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)","https://www.estimize.com/aptv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)","https://www.estimize.com/adm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)","https://www.estimize.com/anet","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)","https://www.estimize.com/ajg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)","https://www.estimize.com/aiz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)","https://www.estimize.com/t","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)","https://www.estimize.com/ato","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)","https://www.estimize.com/adsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)","https://www.estimize.com/adp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)","https://www.estimize.com/azo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)","https://www.estimize.com/avb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)","https://www.estimize.com/avy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)","https://www.estimize.com/bkr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)","https://www.estimize.com/bll","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)","https://www.estimize.com/bac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)","https://www.estimize.com/bk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)","https://www.estimize.com/bax","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)","https://www.estimize.com/bdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)","https://www.estimize.com/brk.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)","https://www.estimize.com/bby","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)","https://www.estimize.com/bio","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)","https://www.estimize.com/biib","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)","https://www.estimize.com/blk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)","https://www.estimize.com/ba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)","https://www.estimize.com/bkng","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)","https://www.estimize.com/bwa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)","https://www.estimize.com/bxp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)","https://www.estimize.com/bsx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)","https://www.estimize.com/bmy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)","https://www.estimize.com/avgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)","https://www.estimize.com/br","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)","https://www.estimize.com/bf.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)","https://www.estimize.com/chrw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)","https://www.estimize.com/cog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)","https://www.estimize.com/cdns","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)","https://www.estimize.com/cpb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)","https://www.estimize.com/cof","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)","https://www.estimize.com/cah","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)","https://www.estimize.com/kmx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)","https://www.estimize.com/ccl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)","https://www.estimize.com/carr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)","https://www.estimize.com/ctlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)","https://www.estimize.com/cat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)","https://www.estimize.com/cboe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)","https://www.estimize.com/cbre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CDW (CDW)","https://www.estimize.com/cdw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Celanese (CE)","https://www.estimize.com/ce","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)","https://www.estimize.com/cnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)","https://www.estimize.com/cnp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cerner (CERN)","https://www.estimize.com/cern","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)","https://www.estimize.com/cf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)","https://www.estimize.com/schw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)","https://www.estimize.com/chtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)","https://www.estimize.com/cvx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)","https://www.estimize.com/cmg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)","https://www.estimize.com/cb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)","https://www.estimize.com/chd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cigna (CI)","https://www.estimize.com/ci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)","https://www.estimize.com/cinf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/csco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)","https://www.estimize.com/c","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)","https://www.estimize.com/cfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctxs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)","https://www.estimize.com/clx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)","https://www.estimize.com/cme","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)","https://www.estimize.com/cms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)","https://www.estimize.com/ko","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)","https://www.estimize.com/ctsh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)","https://www.estimize.com/cl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)","https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)","https://www.estimize.com/cma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)","https://www.estimize.com/cag","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)","https://www.estimize.com/cop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)","https://www.estimize.com/ed","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)","https://www.estimize.com/stz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)","https://www.estimize.com/coo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)","https://www.estimize.com/cprt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)","https://www.estimize.com/glw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)","https://www.estimize.com/ctva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)","https://www.estimize.com/cost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)","https://www.estimize.com/cci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)","https://www.estimize.com/csx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)","https://www.estimize.com/cmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)","https://www.estimize.com/cvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)","https://www.estimize.com/dhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)","https://www.estimize.com/dhr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)","https://www.estimize.com/dri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)","https://www.estimize.com/dva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)","https://www.estimize.com/de","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)","https://www.estimize.com/dal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)","https://www.estimize.com/xray","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)","https://www.estimize.com/dvn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)","https://www.estimize.com/dxcm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)","https://www.estimize.com/fang","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)","https://www.estimize.com/dlr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)","https://www.estimize.com/dfs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCA)","https://www.estimize.com/disca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCK)","https://www.estimize.com/disck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)","https://www.estimize.com/dish","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dollar General (DG)","https://www.estimize.com/dg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)","https://www.estimize.com/dltr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)","https://www.estimize.com/d","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)","https://www.estimize.com/dpz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)","https://www.estimize.com/dov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)","https://www.estimize.com/dow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)","https://www.estimize.com/dte","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)","https://www.estimize.com/duk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)","https://www.estimize.com/dre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)","https://www.estimize.com/dd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)","https://www.estimize.com/dxc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)","https://www.estimize.com/emn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)","https://www.estimize.com/etn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)","https://www.estimize.com/ebay","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)","https://www.estimize.com/ecl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)","https://www.estimize.com/ew","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)","https://www.estimize.com/ea","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)","https://www.estimize.com/emr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)","https://www.estimize.com/enph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)","https://www.estimize.com/etr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)","https://www.estimize.com/eog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)","https://www.estimize.com/efx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eqix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)","https://www.estimize.com/eqr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Essex Property Trust (ESS)","https://www.estimize.com/ess","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)","https://www.estimize.com/el","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)","https://www.estimize.com/etsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)","https://www.estimize.com/evrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)","https://www.estimize.com/es","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)","https://www.estimize.com/re","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)","https://www.estimize.com/exc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)","https://www.estimize.com/expe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)","https://www.estimize.com/expd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)","https://www.estimize.com/exr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)","https://www.estimize.com/xom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)","https://www.estimize.com/ffiv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Facebook (FB)","https://www.estimize.com/fb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)","https://www.estimize.com/fast","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)","https://www.estimize.com/frt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)","https://www.estimize.com/fdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)","https://www.estimize.com/fis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)","https://www.estimize.com/fitb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)","https://www.estimize.com/fe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)","https://www.estimize.com/frc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)","https://www.estimize.com/fisv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)","https://www.estimize.com/flt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)","https://www.estimize.com/flir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)","https://www.estimize.com/fls","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)","https://www.estimize.com/fmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)","https://www.estimize.com/f","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)","https://www.estimize.com/ftnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)","https://www.estimize.com/ftv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)","https://www.estimize.com/fbhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)","https://www.estimize.com/foxa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)","https://www.estimize.com/fox","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)","https://www.estimize.com/ben","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)","https://www.estimize.com/fcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)","https://www.estimize.com/gps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)","https://www.estimize.com/grmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)","https://www.estimize.com/it","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)","https://www.estimize.com/gd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for General Electric (GE)","https://www.estimize.com/ge","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for General Mills (GIS)","https://www.estimize.com/gis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for General Motors (GM)","https://www.estimize.com/gm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)","https://www.estimize.com/gpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)","https://www.estimize.com/gild","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)","https://www.estimize.com/gl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)","https://www.estimize.com/gpn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)","https://www.estimize.com/gs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)","https://www.estimize.com/gww","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)","https://www.estimize.com/hal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)","https://www.estimize.com/hbi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)","https://www.estimize.com/hig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)","https://www.estimize.com/has","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)","https://www.estimize.com/hca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)","https://www.estimize.com/peak","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)","https://www.estimize.com/hsic","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)","https://www.estimize.com/hsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)","https://www.estimize.com/hes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)","https://www.estimize.com/hpe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)","https://www.estimize.com/hlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)","https://www.estimize.com/hfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)","https://www.estimize.com/holx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Home Depot (HD)","https://www.estimize.com/hd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)","https://www.estimize.com/hon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)","https://www.estimize.com/hrl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)","https://www.estimize.com/hst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)","https://www.estimize.com/hwm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)","https://www.estimize.com/hpq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)","https://www.estimize.com/hum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)","https://www.estimize.com/hban","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)","https://www.estimize.com/hii","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)","https://www.estimize.com/iex","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)","https://www.estimize.com/idxx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)","https://www.estimize.com/info","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)","https://www.estimize.com/itw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)","https://www.estimize.com/ilmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Incyte (INCY)","https://www.estimize.com/incy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)","https://www.estimize.com/ir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)","https://www.estimize.com/intc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)","https://www.estimize.com/ice","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)","https://www.estimize.com/ibm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for International Paper (IP)","https://www.estimize.com/ip","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ipg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)","https://www.estimize.com/iff","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)","https://www.estimize.com/intu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)","https://www.estimize.com/isrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)","https://www.estimize.com/ivz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)","https://www.estimize.com/ipgp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)","https://www.estimize.com/iqv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)","https://www.estimize.com/irm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)","https://www.estimize.com/jkhy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)","https://www.estimize.com/j","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)","https://www.estimize.com/jbht","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)","https://www.estimize.com/sjm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)","https://www.estimize.com/jnj","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)","https://www.estimize.com/jci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)","https://www.estimize.com/jpm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)","https://www.estimize.com/jnpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)","https://www.estimize.com/ksu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)","https://www.estimize.com/k","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)","https://www.estimize.com/key","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)","https://www.estimize.com/keys","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)","https://www.estimize.com/kmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)","https://www.estimize.com/kim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)","https://www.estimize.com/kmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)","https://www.estimize.com/klac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)","https://www.estimize.com/khc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)","https://www.estimize.com/kr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)","https://www.estimize.com/lb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)","https://www.estimize.com/lhx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)","https://www.estimize.com/lh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)","https://www.estimize.com/lrcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)","https://www.estimize.com/lw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)","https://www.estimize.com/lvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)","https://www.estimize.com/leg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)","https://www.estimize.com/ldos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)","https://www.estimize.com/len","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)","https://www.estimize.com/lly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)","https://www.estimize.com/lnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)","https://www.estimize.com/lin","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)","https://www.estimize.com/lyv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)","https://www.estimize.com/lkq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)","https://www.estimize.com/lmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)","https://www.estimize.com/l","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)","https://www.estimize.com/low","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)","https://www.estimize.com/lumn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)","https://www.estimize.com/lyb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)","https://www.estimize.com/mtb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)","https://www.estimize.com/mro","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)","https://www.estimize.com/mpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)","https://www.estimize.com/mktx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)","https://www.estimize.com/mar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)","https://www.estimize.com/mmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)","https://www.estimize.com/mlm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)","https://www.estimize.com/mas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)","https://www.estimize.com/ma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)","https://www.estimize.com/mkc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)","https://www.estimize.com/mxim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)","https://www.estimize.com/mcd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)","https://www.estimize.com/mck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)","https://www.estimize.com/mdt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)","https://www.estimize.com/mrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)","https://www.estimize.com/met","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)","https://www.estimize.com/mtd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)","https://www.estimize.com/mgm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)","https://www.estimize.com/mchp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)","https://www.estimize.com/mu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)","https://www.estimize.com/msft","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)","https://www.estimize.com/maa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)","https://www.estimize.com/mhk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)","https://www.estimize.com/tap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)","https://www.estimize.com/mdlz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)","https://www.estimize.com/mpwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)","https://www.estimize.com/mnst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)","https://www.estimize.com/mco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)","https://www.estimize.com/ms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)","https://www.estimize.com/mos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)","https://www.estimize.com/msi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)","https://www.estimize.com/msci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Nasdaq (NDAQ)","https://www.estimize.com/ndaq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)","https://www.estimize.com/ntap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)","https://www.estimize.com/nflx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)","https://www.estimize.com/nwl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)","https://www.estimize.com/nem","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)","https://www.estimize.com/nwsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)","https://www.estimize.com/nws","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)","https://www.estimize.com/nee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)","https://www.estimize.com/nlsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Nike (NKE)","https://www.estimize.com/nke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)","https://www.estimize.com/ni","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)","https://www.estimize.com/nsc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/ntrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)","https://www.estimize.com/noc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)","https://www.estimize.com/nlok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)","https://www.estimize.com/nclh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)","https://www.estimize.com/nov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)","https://www.estimize.com/nrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)","https://www.estimize.com/nue","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)","https://www.estimize.com/nvda","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""NVR (NVR)","https://www.estimize.com/nvr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)","https://www.estimize.com/orly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)","https://www.estimize.com/oxy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)","https://www.estimize.com/odfl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)","https://www.estimize.com/omc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Oneok (OKE)","https://www.estimize.com/oke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)","https://www.estimize.com/orcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)","https://www.estimize.com/otis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)","https://www.estimize.com/pcar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)","https://www.estimize.com/pkg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)","https://www.estimize.com/ph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)","https://www.estimize.com/payx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)","https://www.estimize.com/payc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)","https://www.estimize.com/pypl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)","https://www.estimize.com/pnr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)","https://www.estimize.com/pbct","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)","https://www.estimize.com/pep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)","https://www.estimize.com/pki","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)","https://www.estimize.com/prgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)","https://www.estimize.com/pfe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)","https://www.estimize.com/pm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)","https://www.estimize.com/psx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)","https://www.estimize.com/pnw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)","https://www.estimize.com/pxd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)","https://www.estimize.com/pnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)","https://www.estimize.com/pool","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ppg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)","https://www.estimize.com/ppl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)","https://www.estimize.com/pfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)","https://www.estimize.com/pg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)","https://www.estimize.com/pgr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Prologis (PLD)","https://www.estimize.com/pld","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)","https://www.estimize.com/pru","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)","https://www.estimize.com/peg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)","https://www.estimize.com/psa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)","https://www.estimize.com/phm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)","https://www.estimize.com/pvh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)","https://www.estimize.com/qrvo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)","https://www.estimize.com/pwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)","https://www.estimize.com/qcom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)","https://www.estimize.com/dgx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)","https://www.estimize.com/rl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)","https://www.estimize.com/rjf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)","https://www.estimize.com/rtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)","https://www.estimize.com/o","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)","https://www.estimize.com/reg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)","https://www.estimize.com/regn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)","https://www.estimize.com/rf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)","https://www.estimize.com/rsg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ResMed (RMD)","https://www.estimize.com/rmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)","https://www.estimize.com/rhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)","https://www.estimize.com/rok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Rollins (ROL)","https://www.estimize.com/rol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)","https://www.estimize.com/rop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)","https://www.estimize.com/rost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)","https://www.estimize.com/rcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)","https://www.estimize.com/spgi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)","https://www.estimize.com/crm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)","https://www.estimize.com/sbac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)","https://www.estimize.com/slb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)","https://www.estimize.com/stx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)","https://www.estimize.com/see","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)","https://www.estimize.com/sre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)","https://www.estimize.com/now","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)","https://www.estimize.com/shw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)","https://www.estimize.com/spg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)","https://www.estimize.com/swks","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)","https://www.estimize.com/slg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)","https://www.estimize.com/sna","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Southern Company (SO)","https://www.estimize.com/so","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)","https://www.estimize.com/luv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)","https://www.estimize.com/swk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)","https://www.estimize.com/sbux","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)","https://www.estimize.com/stt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Steris (STE)","https://www.estimize.com/ste","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)","https://www.estimize.com/syk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)","https://www.estimize.com/sivb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)","https://www.estimize.com/syf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)","https://www.estimize.com/snps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)","https://www.estimize.com/syy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)","https://www.estimize.com/tmus","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)","https://www.estimize.com/trow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)","https://www.estimize.com/ttwo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Tapestry (TPR)","https://www.estimize.com/tpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)","https://www.estimize.com/tgt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)","https://www.estimize.com/tel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)","https://www.estimize.com/tdy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)","https://www.estimize.com/tfx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Teradyne (TER)","https://www.estimize.com/ter","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Tesla (TSLA)","https://www.estimize.com/tsla","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)","https://www.estimize.com/txn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)","https://www.estimize.com/txt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)","https://www.estimize.com/tmo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)","https://www.estimize.com/tjx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/tsco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)","https://www.estimize.com/tt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)","https://www.estimize.com/tdg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)","https://www.estimize.com/trv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)","https://www.estimize.com/trmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)","https://www.estimize.com/tfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""Twitter (TWTR)","https://www.estimize.com/twtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)","https://www.estimize.com/tyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)","https://www.estimize.com/tsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""UDR (UDR)","https://www.estimize.com/udr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)","https://www.estimize.com/ulta","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)","https://www.estimize.com/usb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)","https://www.estimize.com/uaa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)","https://www.estimize.com/ua","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)","https://www.estimize.com/unp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)","https://www.estimize.com/ual","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)","https://www.estimize.com/unh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)","https://www.estimize.com/ups","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ""United Rentals (URI)","https://www.estimize.com/uri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)","https://www.estimize.com/uhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)","https://www.estimize.com/unm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)","https://www.estimize.com/vlo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)","https://www.estimize.com/var","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)","https://www.estimize.com/vtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)","https://www.estimize.com/vz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)","https://www.estimize.com/vrtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)","https://www.estimize.com/vfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)","https://www.estimize.com/viac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/vtrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)","https://www.estimize.com/v","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Vontier (VNT)","https://www.estimize.com/vnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)","https://www.estimize.com/vno","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)","https://www.estimize.com/vmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)","https://www.estimize.com/wrb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)","https://www.estimize.com/wab","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Walmart (WMT)","https://www.estimize.com/wmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)","https://www.estimize.com/wba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)","https://www.estimize.com/dis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)","https://www.estimize.com/wm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)","https://www.estimize.com/wat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)","https://www.estimize.com/wec","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)","https://www.estimize.com/wfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)","https://www.estimize.com/well","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)","https://www.estimize.com/wst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)","https://www.estimize.com/wdc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)","https://www.estimize.com/wu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for WestRock (WRK)","https://www.estimize.com/wrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)","https://www.estimize.com/wy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)","https://www.estimize.com/whr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)","https://www.estimize.com/wmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)","https://www.estimize.com/wltw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)","https://www.estimize.com/wynn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)","https://www.estimize.com/xel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Xerox (XRX)","https://www.estimize.com/xrx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)","https://www.estimize.com/xlnx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)","https://www.estimize.com/xyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)","https://www.estimize.com/yum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)","https://www.estimize.com/zbra","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)","https://www.estimize.com/zbh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)","https://www.estimize.com/zion","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
+"Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)","https://www.estimize.com/zts","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/estimize-questions.json b/data/estimize-questions.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..1c26798
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/estimize-questions.json
@@ -0,0 +1,4050 @@
+[
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abbv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abmd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Accenture (ACN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/acn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/atvi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adbe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AES Corp (AES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aes",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aflac (AFL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/afl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/a",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/akam",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/are",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alxn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/algn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alle",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/all",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/googl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/goog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amzn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amcr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aee",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aep",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Express (AXP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/axp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American International Group (AIG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aig",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/awk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ametek (AME)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ame",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amgn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Analog Devices (ADI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"ANSYS (ANSS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anss",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/antm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aon plc (AON)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aon",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aapl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aptv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anet",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ajg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aiz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/t",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ato",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adsk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/azo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bll",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bax",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bdx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/brk.b",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bby",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bio",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/biib",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/blk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ba",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkng",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bwa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bxp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bsx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bmy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avgo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/br",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bf.b",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chrw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdns",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cpb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cof",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cah",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ccl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/carr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctlt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cboe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cbre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CDW (CDW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Celanese (CE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ce",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cerner (CERN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cern",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/schw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cigna (CI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cinf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctas",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/c",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cfg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctxs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/clx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cme",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cms",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ko",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctsh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cma",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cag",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cop",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ed",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/coo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cprt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/glw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctva",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cost",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dri",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dva",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/de",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xray",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dvn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxcm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fang",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dlr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dfs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disca",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disck",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dish",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dollar General (DG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dltr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/d",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dpz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dov",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dow",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dte",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/duk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ebay",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ecl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eix",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ew",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ea",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/enph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/efx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqix",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Essex Property Trust (ESS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ess",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/el",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etsy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/evrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/es",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/re",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xom",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ffiv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Facebook (FB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fast",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fdx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fitb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fisv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flir",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fls",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/f",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fbhs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/foxa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fox",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ben",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fcx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gps",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/grmn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/it",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Electric (GE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ge",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Mills (GIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Motors (GM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gild",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gww",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hbi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hig",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/has",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hca",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peak",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsic",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hes",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hlt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/holx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Home Depot (HD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hon",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hrl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hwm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hum",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hban",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hii",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iex",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/idxx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/info",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/itw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ilmn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Incyte (INCY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/incy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ir",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ice",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ibm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Paper (IP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ip",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iff",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/isrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ivz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipgp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iqv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/irm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jkhy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/j",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jbht",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sjm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnj",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jpm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnpr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ksu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/k",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/key",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/keys",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kim",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/klac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/khc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lhx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lrcx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lvs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/leg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ldos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/len",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lly",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lin",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lkq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lmt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/l",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/low",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lumn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mro",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mktx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mar",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mlm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mas",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ma",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mkc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mxim",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mcd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mck",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mrk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/met",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mgm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mchp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msft",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/maa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mhk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdlz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpwr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mnst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ms",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Nasdaq (NDAQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ndaq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nflx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nem",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwsa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nws",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nee",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Nike (NKE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nke",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ni",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nsc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntrs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/noc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlok",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nclh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nov",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nue",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvda",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"NVR (NVR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orly",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oxy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/odfl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/omc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Oneok (OKE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oke",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orcl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/otis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pcar",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pkg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pypl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pbct",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pep",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pki",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/prgo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pxd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pool",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pgr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Prologis (PLD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pld",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pru",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/phm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pvh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qrvo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pwr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qcom",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dgx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rjf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rtx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/o",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/reg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/regn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rsg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ResMed (RMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rmd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rhi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rok",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Rollins (ROL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rol",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rop",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rost",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rcl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spgi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/crm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/see",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/now",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/shw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swks",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sna",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Southern Company (SO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/so",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/luv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbux",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Steris (STE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ste",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sivb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/snps",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmus",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trow",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ttwo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Tapestry (TPR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tpr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tgt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tel",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teradyne (TER)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ter",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Tesla (TSLA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsla",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tjx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Twitter (TWTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/twtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tyl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"UDR (UDR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/udr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ulta",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/usb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uaa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ua",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ual",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ups",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"United Rentals (URI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uri",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uhs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vlo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/var",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrtx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/viac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtrs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/v",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vontier (VNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vno",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wab",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Walmart (WMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wba",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wec",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/well",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wdc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for WestRock (WRK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/whr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wltw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wynn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xel",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xerox (XRX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xrx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xlnx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xyl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/yum",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbra",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zion",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zts",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2
+ }
+]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
index 04dd93f..d9a30cf 100644
--- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
+++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
-"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to vaccination. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by Johns Hopkins of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., here, here, here). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been criticized for being slow. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's Robert Koch Institut [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The Conference Board reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed board members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices report. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF website, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the April 2020 report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in sustainable sector investment has been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using data from Morningstar for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
-"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
\ No newline at end of file
+"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
+"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the ONS reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
index 0b277d3..29206bb 100644
--- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
@@ -7,12 +7,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -119,12 +119,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -142,7 +142,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -162,7 +162,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -181,12 +181,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -220,12 +220,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -249,12 +249,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -278,22 +278,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -336,17 +336,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -360,7 +360,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -370,17 +370,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -418,7 +418,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -438,7 +438,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -452,17 +452,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
index c2d05e3..e4f47f8 100644
--- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
+++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
@@ -1,109 +1,116 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
+"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for ""All items"" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
+","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",3
+"Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
+","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3
+"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
+","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47","37",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64","46",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","67","57",3
+To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","82","67",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","38","35",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","42",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","40","36",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","42",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","48","34",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","67",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","104","69",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","44","32",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","113","55",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","55",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options).
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","81","35",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","36",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","74",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","227","76",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","305","112",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","116",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","62",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","66",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","71",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","127","73",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
-","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70","39",3
+","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","72","40",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","453","352",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","459","354",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","251",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","333","252",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","344","304",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","348","307",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","177",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","179",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","238","178",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","242","180",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
-","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63","24",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","65","24",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","146","88",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148","89",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109","48",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","116","49",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","53",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","55",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
-","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","447","314",3
+","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","455","318",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","69","45",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70","45",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","73",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","157","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","180","73",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","183","74",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","87","50",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","193","110",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","206","114",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","133",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","173","134",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","165","116",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","119",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","150","82",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","83",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
-","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","51",3
+","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","131","52",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","85",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","145","85",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","108","71",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","73",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","262","108",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","265","109",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
-","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","139",3
+","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","237","140",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","139","74",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","90","55",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","55",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","61",3
+","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","64",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","196","84",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","199","85",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","140","88",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141","88",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","238","140",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","142",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
-Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","353","190",3
+Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","359","191",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","344","71",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","351","72",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
-","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","387","102",3
+","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","405","106",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","152","112",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","155","114",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","142",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","142",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
@@ -111,121 +118,119 @@ Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de r
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","49",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","165","89",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","89",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","74","35",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
-","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","171","79",3
+","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","79",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","44",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","223","67",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","227","67",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","159","64",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","64",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","65",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","114","66",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","260","134",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","135",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","90",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","90",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","37",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","67",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","67",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","204","106",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","106",3
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
-Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","178","119",3
+Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","121",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","260","73",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","263","74",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","86",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","217","86",3
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","327","141",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","334","142",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","81",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","61",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","176","61",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","454","194",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","457","194",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","420","211",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","211",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","146",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","353","225",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","356","225",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","281","102",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","103",3
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","417","107",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","108",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","320","104",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","125",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","247","125",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","257","97",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","97",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84","44",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","394","204",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","396","205",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","60",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","31",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79","31",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","43",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","253","43",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","128","30",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","131","30",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","199",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","430","200",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
-","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","197","79",3
+","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","200","80",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","548","198",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","558","199",3
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","537","247",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","540","247",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
-","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1678","581",3
+","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1686","582",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","508","215",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","510","215",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","321","202",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","327","204",3
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","521","234",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","529","238",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","220","123",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","224","124",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317","185",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","319","185",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","310","165",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","312","165",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","293","88",3
-"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","199","115",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","88",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","58",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317","168",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","318","168",3
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","269","107",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","270","107",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
-","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1407","204",3
+","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1413","206",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","63",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","286","64",3
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","62",3
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
@@ -234,99 +239,97 @@ NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would co
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","54",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","547","151",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","548","152",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","729","156",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","736","156",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","468","217",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","473","219",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","467","93",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","475","93",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","452","67",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","457","67",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","65",3
-"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","412","159",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
-","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","342","114",3
+","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","345","114",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
-","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","680","200",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","686","202",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1144","453",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1152","454",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","385","160",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","386","160",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","153",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","153",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","711","166",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","716","166",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","836","166",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","839","166",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","78",3
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","323","76",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","324","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","630","184",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","634","184",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
-","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","470","96",3
+","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","473","96",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","271","55",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","280","56",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","369","120",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","372","120",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","107",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","300","107",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020: For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
-","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","78",3
+","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","279","79",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
-","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","844","291",3
+","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","852","293",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
-Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","138",3
+Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","293","138",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
-Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","638","142",3
+Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","644","142",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
-","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","94",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","94",3
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","253","57",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","255","57",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab. First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","46",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","235","46",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
-Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1170","173",3
+Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d0b3bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbea390b7bfbfb4baa5b4b7bdb5bea4feb3bfbdefa3a5b2bab5b3a4ed81a5b5a3a4b9bfbef5e2e093bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1176","176",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
-Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1994","823",3
+Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b9dad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7caf9ded6d6ddd3ccddded4dcd7cd97dad6d486caccdbd3dcdacd84e8ccdccacdd0d6d79c8b89fad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2017","828",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
-Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","110",3
+Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8aba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6bb88afa7a7aca2bdacafa5ada6bce6aba7a5f7bbbdaaa2adabbcf599bdadbbbca1a7a6edfaf88ba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","110",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
-Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1065","462",3
+Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1072","463",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","82",3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","292","82",3
"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","74",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
-Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
-","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","395","218",3
+Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bdded1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3cefddad2d2d9d7c8d9dad0d8d3c993ded2d082cec8dfd7d8dec980ecc8d8cec9d4d2d3988f8dfed1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","396","218",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","88",3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","190","88",3
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
-","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","96",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283","96",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
-","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","427","147",3
+","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","428","147",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","97",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","302","133",3
\ No newline at end of file
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","303","133",3
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
index 81ca094..f6048ee 100644
--- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
@@ -1,4 +1,137 @@
[
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Lower than 1.7%",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
+ "probability": 0.04,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Higher than 3.1%",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "5",
+ "numforecasters": "5",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "The Father",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
+ "probability": 1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mank",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Minari",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nomadland",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Promising Young Woman",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sound of Metal",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A tie or other outcome",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1",
+ "numforecasters": "1",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mank (David Fincher)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)",
+ "probability": 1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A tie or other outcome",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1",
+ "numforecasters": "1",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
@@ -7,24 +140,24 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "47",
- "numforecasters": "37",
+ "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\n",
+ "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 14.5 million",
@@ -33,27 +166,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "numforecasters": "57",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
+ "numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -64,17 +197,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -84,17 +217,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "38",
- "numforecasters": "35",
+ "numforecasts": "45",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -114,8 +247,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "numforecasters": "36",
+ "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -172,7 +305,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -182,12 +315,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "67",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -248,7 +381,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "113",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -260,22 +393,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 15,000",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -309,8 +442,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "numforecasters": "35",
+ "numforecasts": "86",
+ "numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -331,17 +464,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -370,8 +503,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "210",
- "numforecasters": "74",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -407,22 +540,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -436,8 +569,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "305",
- "numforecasters": "112",
+ "numforecasts": "332",
+ "numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -453,22 +586,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -497,8 +630,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "186",
- "numforecasters": "62",
+ "numforecasts": "207",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -518,8 +651,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "123",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -544,8 +677,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "70",
- "numforecasters": "39",
+ "numforecasts": "72",
+ "numforecasters": "40",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -565,8 +698,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "453",
- "numforecasters": "352",
+ "numforecasts": "459",
+ "numforecasters": "354",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -587,12 +720,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -601,8 +734,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "329",
- "numforecasters": "251",
+ "numforecasts": "333",
+ "numforecasters": "252",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -613,17 +746,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "344",
- "numforecasters": "304",
+ "numforecasts": "348",
+ "numforecasters": "307",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -643,8 +776,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "202",
- "numforecasters": "177",
+ "numforecasts": "207",
+ "numforecasters": "179",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -660,17 +793,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -679,8 +812,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "238",
- "numforecasters": "178",
+ "numforecasts": "242",
+ "numforecasters": "180",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -696,12 +829,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -715,7 +848,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -727,12 +860,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -742,7 +875,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -751,8 +884,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "146",
- "numforecasters": "88",
+ "numforecasts": "148",
+ "numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -763,17 +896,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -787,8 +920,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "109",
- "numforecasters": "48",
+ "numforecasts": "116",
+ "numforecasters": "49",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -813,8 +946,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -839,8 +972,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "447",
- "numforecasters": "314",
+ "numforecasts": "455",
+ "numforecasters": "318",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -851,16 +984,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "69",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -872,17 +1005,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "151",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "157",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -893,17 +1026,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "180",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "183",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -944,8 +1077,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "193",
- "numforecasters": "110",
+ "numforecasts": "206",
+ "numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -965,8 +1098,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "168",
- "numforecasters": "133",
+ "numforecasts": "173",
+ "numforecasters": "134",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -982,7 +1115,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -992,12 +1125,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "165",
- "numforecasters": "116",
+ "numforecasts": "168",
+ "numforecasters": "119",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1008,17 +1141,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "150",
- "numforecasters": "82",
+ "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1034,7 +1167,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1049,7 +1182,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1058,8 +1191,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
- "numforecasters": "51",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
+ "numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1070,16 +1203,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1100,8 +1233,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "112",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1121,8 +1254,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "262",
- "numforecasters": "108",
+ "numforecasts": "265",
+ "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1152,8 +1285,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "234",
- "numforecasters": "139",
+ "numforecasts": "237",
+ "numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1209,7 +1342,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "90",
+ "numforecasts": "92",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1226,17 +1359,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "numforecasters": "61",
+ "numforecasts": "86",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1256,8 +1389,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "196",
- "numforecasters": "84",
+ "numforecasts": "199",
+ "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1277,7 +1410,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "140",
+ "numforecasts": "141",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1289,38 +1422,38 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "238",
- "numforecasters": "140",
+ "numforecasts": "244",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
- "numforecasters": "190",
+ "numforecasts": "359",
+ "numforecasters": "191",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1346,17 +1479,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "344",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "351",
+ "numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1367,7 +1500,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "7 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1377,7 +1510,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 15 and 21",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1391,8 +1524,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "387",
- "numforecasters": "102",
+ "numforecasts": "405",
+ "numforecasters": "106",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1412,8 +1545,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "152",
- "numforecasters": "112",
+ "numforecasts": "155",
+ "numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1433,7 +1566,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "246",
+ "numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1485,7 +1618,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "165",
+ "numforecasts": "167",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1523,12 +1656,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1537,7 +1670,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "171",
+ "numforecasts": "174",
"numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1575,17 +1708,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1594,7 +1727,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1615,7 +1748,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "159",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
"numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1627,7 +1760,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1637,12 +1770,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "112",
- "numforecasters": "65",
+ "numforecasts": "114",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1662,8 +1795,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "260",
- "numforecasters": "134",
+ "numforecasts": "266",
+ "numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1674,16 +1807,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "243",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1730,7 +1863,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "185",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1756,7 +1889,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "205",
"numforecasters": "106",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1764,16 +1897,16 @@
"title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
+ "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicaragua",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "St. Lucia",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1782,8 +1915,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "178",
- "numforecasters": "119",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasters": "121",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1799,12 +1932,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1818,8 +1951,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "260",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "263",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1839,7 +1972,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "216",
+ "numforecasts": "217",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1865,8 +1998,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "327",
- "numforecasters": "141",
+ "numforecasts": "334",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1933,7 +2066,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "174",
+ "numforecasts": "176",
"numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1945,12 +2078,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1959,7 +2092,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "454",
+ "numforecasts": "457",
"numforecasters": "194",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1990,7 +2123,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "420",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
"numforecasters": "211",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2032,7 +2165,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
+ "numforecasts": "356",
"numforecasters": "225",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2044,17 +2177,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "281",
- "numforecasters": "102",
+ "numforecasts": "282",
+ "numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2065,17 +2198,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "417",
- "numforecasters": "107",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
+ "numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2126,7 +2259,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "243",
+ "numforecasts": "247",
"numforecasters": "125",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2148,21 +2281,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "257",
+ "numforecasts": "258",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2204,8 +2337,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "394",
- "numforecasters": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "396",
+ "numforecasters": "205",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2237,16 +2370,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2263,12 +2396,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2282,7 +2415,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "249",
+ "numforecasts": "253",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2313,7 +2446,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "128",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2334,8 +2467,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "425",
- "numforecasters": "199",
+ "numforecasts": "430",
+ "numforecasters": "200",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2346,7 +2479,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2366,7 +2499,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0.68,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2375,8 +2508,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "197",
- "numforecasters": "79",
+ "numforecasts": "200",
+ "numforecasters": "80",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2396,8 +2529,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "548",
- "numforecasters": "198",
+ "numforecasts": "558",
+ "numforecasters": "199",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2432,7 +2565,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "537",
+ "numforecasts": "540",
"numforecasters": "247",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2468,8 +2601,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1678",
- "numforecasters": "581",
+ "numforecasts": "1686",
+ "numforecasters": "582",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2499,7 +2632,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "508",
+ "numforecasts": "510",
"numforecasters": "215",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2520,8 +2653,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "321",
- "numforecasters": "202",
+ "numforecasts": "327",
+ "numforecasters": "204",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2541,8 +2674,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "521",
- "numforecasters": "234",
+ "numforecasts": "529",
+ "numforecasters": "238",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2553,17 +2686,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "220",
- "numforecasters": "123",
+ "numforecasts": "224",
+ "numforecasters": "124",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2583,7 +2716,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "317",
+ "numforecasts": "319",
"numforecasters": "185",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2604,7 +2737,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "310",
+ "numforecasts": "312",
"numforecasters": "165",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2640,36 +2773,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "293",
+ "numforecasts": "295",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "199",
- "numforecasters": "115",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority",
@@ -2708,7 +2815,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "317",
+ "numforecasts": "318",
"numforecasters": "168",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2729,7 +2836,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "269",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2765,8 +2872,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1407",
- "numforecasters": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "1413",
+ "numforecasters": "206",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2786,8 +2893,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "285",
- "numforecasters": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "286",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2900,8 +3007,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "547",
- "numforecasters": "151",
+ "numforecasts": "548",
+ "numforecasters": "152",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2921,7 +3028,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "729",
+ "numforecasts": "736",
"numforecasters": "156",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2938,12 +3045,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2957,8 +3064,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "468",
- "numforecasters": "217",
+ "numforecasts": "473",
+ "numforecasters": "219",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2979,7 +3086,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2989,11 +3096,11 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.82,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "467",
+ "numforecasts": "475",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3015,16 +3122,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "452",
+ "numforecasts": "457",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3049,27 +3156,6 @@
"numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "412",
- "numforecasters": "159",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from",
@@ -3112,7 +3198,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "342",
+ "numforecasts": "345",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3148,8 +3234,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "680",
- "numforecasters": "200",
+ "numforecasts": "686",
+ "numforecasters": "202",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3169,8 +3255,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1144",
- "numforecasters": "453",
+ "numforecasts": "1152",
+ "numforecasters": "454",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3190,7 +3276,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "385",
+ "numforecasts": "386",
"numforecasters": "160",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3211,7 +3297,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "329",
+ "numforecasts": "332",
"numforecasters": "153",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3232,7 +3318,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "711",
+ "numforecasts": "716",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3259,16 +3345,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "836",
+ "numforecasts": "839",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3310,7 +3396,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "323",
+ "numforecasts": "324",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3322,16 +3408,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "630",
+ "numforecasts": "634",
"numforecasters": "184",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3367,7 +3453,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "470",
+ "numforecasts": "473",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3389,17 +3475,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "271",
- "numforecasters": "55",
+ "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasters": "56",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3434,7 +3520,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "369",
+ "numforecasts": "372",
"numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3451,12 +3537,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3465,7 +3551,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "295",
+ "numforecasts": "300",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3477,22 +3563,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1 or 2",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or 4",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3501,8 +3587,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "275",
- "numforecasters": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "279",
+ "numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3532,15 +3618,15 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "844",
- "numforecasters": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "852",
+ "numforecasters": "293",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3553,7 +3639,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "293",
"numforecasters": "138",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3561,20 +3647,20 @@
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "638",
+ "numforecasts": "644",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3591,21 +3677,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, a paid backup driver",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "241",
+ "numforecasts": "244",
"numforecasters": "94",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3627,7 +3713,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3637,11 +3723,11 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4.0 million",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "253",
+ "numforecasts": "255",
"numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3668,16 +3754,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6,500",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "234",
+ "numforecasts": "235",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3685,7 +3771,7 @@
"title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d0b3bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbea390b7bfbfb4baa5b4b7bdb5bea4feb3bfbdefa3a5b2bab5b3a4ed81a5b5a3a4b9bfbef5e2e093bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 2.5 million",
@@ -3713,15 +3799,15 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1170",
- "numforecasters": "173",
+ "numforecasts": "1176",
+ "numforecasters": "176",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b9dad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7caf9ded6d6ddd3ccddded4dcd7cd97dad6d486caccdbd3dcdacd84e8ccdccacdd0d6d79c8b89fad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
@@ -3735,24 +3821,24 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1994",
- "numforecasters": "823",
+ "numforecasts": "2017",
+ "numforecasters": "828",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8aba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6bb88afa7a7aca2bdacafa5ada6bce6aba7a5f7bbbdaaa2adabbcf599bdadbbbca1a7a6edfaf88ba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3765,7 +3851,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "241",
+ "numforecasts": "243",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3773,7 +3859,7 @@
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -3786,8 +3872,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1065",
- "numforecasters": "462",
+ "numforecasts": "1072",
+ "numforecasters": "463",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3822,7 +3908,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "292",
"numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3866,7 +3952,7 @@
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bdded1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3cefddad2d2d9d7c8d9dad0d8d3c993ded2d082cec8dfd7d8dec980ecc8d8cec9d4d2d3988f8dfed1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
@@ -3889,7 +3975,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "395",
+ "numforecasts": "396",
"numforecasters": "218",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3910,7 +3996,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "189",
+ "numforecasts": "190",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3946,7 +4032,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "282",
+ "numforecasts": "283",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3982,7 +4068,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "427",
+ "numforecasts": "428",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -4024,7 +4110,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "302",
+ "numforecasts": "303",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
}
diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.csv b/data/hypermind-questions.csv
index afe4141..b8fb90e 100644
--- a/data/hypermind-questions.csv
+++ b/data/hypermind-questions.csv
@@ -1,29 +1,29 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
-"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.22115384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04807692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1372549019607843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5490196078431372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.1568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.06862745098039215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.36633663366336633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.28712871287128716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.2621359223300971,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.35922330097087385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.2815533980582524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207920792079207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1176470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.11428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2277227722772277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.07547169811320754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.08571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.30476190476190473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.1238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2830188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.339622641509434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.20792079207920794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6796116504854369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.05825242718446602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.26595744680851063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.3191489361702128,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.11702127659574468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.09574468085106382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.2021276595744681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8118811881188118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json
index 764306b..ee6793f 100644
--- a/data/hypermind-questions.json
+++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
+ "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.03883495145631068,
+ "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
+ "probability": 0.1372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5436893203883496,
+ "probability": 0.5490196078431372,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
+ "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
+ "probability": 0.1568627450980392,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.6153846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.22115384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.04807692307692307,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.07766990291262137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.2621359223300971,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.36633663366336633,
+ "probability": 0.35922330097087385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.28712871287128716,
+ "probability": 0.2815533980582524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -387,12 +387,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.1176470588235294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.8823529411764706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -513,27 +513,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.339622641509434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571427,
+ "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.2476190476190476,
+ "probability": 0.2358490566037736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -547,17 +547,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.7722772277227723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another Likud politician",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another politician not from Likud",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.20792079207920794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -571,17 +571,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
- "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
- "probability": 0.504950495049505,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -595,32 +595,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
+ "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.6796116504854369,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.05825242718446602,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.26595744680851063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
+ "probability": 0.3191489361702128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.1238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.11702127659574468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
+ "probability": 0.09574468085106382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.2021276595744681,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -673,12 +673,12 @@
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.8118811881188118,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
index a7478ea..9a19c55 100644
--- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
+++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
@@ -9,19 +9,19 @@
"2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Beto O'Rourke"",""probability"":0.21794871794871795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Abbott"",""probability"":0.6538461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew McConaughey"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julian Castro"",""probability"":0.10897435897435898,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 German Federal Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.017844886753603295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8750857927247769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.05353466026080989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.05353466026080989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 NYC Mayoral Election: Election Winner - Void if no 2021 election","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5017152370016653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Silwa"",""probability"":0.008593736237751295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21699184000322022,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09644081777920897,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ray McGuire"",""probability"":0.05105690353016946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07890612363753463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.03338336000049542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.004318245572203387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Giuliani"",""probability"":0.008593736237751295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Tees Valley Mayoral Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Ben Houchen (Cons)"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Tees Valley Mayoral Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Ben Houchen (Cons)"",""probability"":0.7936507936507936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)"",""probability"":0.2063492063492063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Labour Party Leader: To Succeed Keir Starmer","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Miliband"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.07353039962596515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.038515923613600796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0.023789246937812255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cat Smith"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stephen Kinnock"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Janet Daby"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.023789246937812255,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosie Duffield"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nia Griffith"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Kendall"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Kyle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0.012072155162471891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chi Onwurah"",""probability"":0.012072155162471891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osamor"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Pennycook"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Powell"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ellie Reeves"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Reynolds"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Russell-Moyle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0.015859497958541503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tony Blair"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nadia Whittome"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Eagle"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen Hayes"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vicky Foxcroft"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bell Ribeiro-Addy"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Preet Gill"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.04757849387562451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0.038515923613600796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0.008008261345402145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.22909090909090907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.1309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.1309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.509090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Eddie Hughes"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.21196616150341224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Graham Brady"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil O'Brien"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa May"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nadhim Zahawi"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kwasi Kwarteng"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.057067812712457144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1854703913154857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.021820046037115966,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0.01809467232346202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.03532769358390204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.028533906356228572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.06744377866017663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.021820046037115966,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.028533906356228572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.01454669735807731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobia Ellwood"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Barclay"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Damian Hinds"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Davis"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kemi Badenoch"",""probability"":0.011072859183014072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Jenkyns"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bim Afolami"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen Whately"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kit Malthouse"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Harper"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Caroline Lucas"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Morgan"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Cameron"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Saville Roberts"",""probability"":0.0014808015274689478,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Davey"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Miliband"",""probability"":0.007345362032296464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Cummings"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miiliband"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0.0036909530610046907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Andrew Cooper (Green)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Golton (LD)"",""probability"":0.00915359010936757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tracy Brabin (Lab)"",""probability"":0.8404660009510223,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Robinson (Cons)"",""probability"":0.13207322872087493,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Hartlepool By-election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5261973798876447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4334864129550597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0045289625234110715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.02677416080016545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.009013083833719062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Hartlepool By-election: Winner","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5007033585370143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.45063302268331284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.004483910673465799,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.026507824863724286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)"",""probability"":0.017671883242482856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan (Lab)"",""probability"":0.87607458110003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey (Cons)"",""probability"":0.053595150843766544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry (Green)"",""probability"":0.00902096598360427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten (Heritage)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)"",""probability"":0.0045329232056916975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose (Ind)"",""probability"":0.026797575421883272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid (WEP)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons (UKIP)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nims Obunge (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Count Binface"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""DrillMinister"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Winston McKenzie"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kam Balayev (Renew)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox (Reclaim)"",""probability"":0.0045329232056916975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Fosh (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 35%"",""probability"":0.04261025029797378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35-40%"",""probability"":0.08134684147794995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.3253873659117998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 50%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Mayoral Election: Winner without Sadiq Khan","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8245035008431204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.033297256764818324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.025462608114272835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Max Fosh"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.15682281059063136,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.1710794297352342,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.6720977596741344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Boris Johnson: Leader at Next General Election?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""To be Tory leader at next general election"",""probability"":0.5263157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""NOT to be Tory leader at next general election"",""probability"":0.47368421052631576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.08506316571711667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8506316571711666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009264305177111716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.055040871934604906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.11503967380380371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8217119557414551,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009112053370598314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.054136317084142925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Majority Betting (over 30 Seats)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.2903930131004367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""NO Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.7096069868995633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Independence Referendum: Year Of Next Official Referendum (Sanctioned by UK and Scottish Governments)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.22419928825622776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09964412811387899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.09964412811387899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 2025"",""probability"":0.4483985765124555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.1281138790035587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next UK General Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.009226975008890151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5580386083220991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.004636440178596543,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.41418865595462456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01390932053578963,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -29,9 +29,9 @@
"Next UK General Election: Overall Majority","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Conservative Majoirity"",""probability"":0.31460674157303375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Majority"",""probability"":0.23595505617977533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No Overall Majority"",""probability"":0.44943820224719105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish First Minister: Next Scottish First Minister","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Douglas Ross"",""probability"":0.04879191719970918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Ballantyne"",""probability"":0.003304631842211379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Monica Lennon"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anas Sarwar"",""probability"":0.02439595859985459,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Murray"",""probability"":0.0016556139568763592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0.13824376539917602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Coburn"",""probability"":0.0016556139568763592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":0.02439595859985459,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":0.0638048147996197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeane Freeman"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":0.11849465605643658,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":0.0638048147996197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":0.012380038692463523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Findlay"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Murrell"",""probability"":0.012380038692463523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Wishart"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philippa Whitford"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stuart Campbell"",""probability"":0.0016556139568763592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tasmin Ahmed-Sheikh"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Willie Rennie"",""probability"":0.008212500914802535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Leonard"",""probability"":0.004126679564154508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Forbes"",""probability"":0.11849465605643658,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ash Denham"",""probability"":0.01626397239990306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0.03190240739980985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0.07540569021773237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Wilson"",""probability"":0.012380038692463523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.0046980793146331355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.9349642992487724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.018515959651789416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.027773939477684122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.0046980793146331355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009349642992487724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Majority Betting","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.6076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.39230769230769225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Majority Betting","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.5890052356020942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No SNP Majority"",""probability"":0.4109947643979057,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Most Seats - Second Place","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.026311219173324074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.2981938172976728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.6577804793331018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.008857242097950678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.008857242097950678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 40%"",""probability"":0.04193230874539787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.12579692623619362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.35223139346134213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-55%"",""probability"":0.33609865788296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55-60%"",""probability"":0.11007231045666942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 60%"",""probability"":0.03386840321743675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Constituency Vote Share","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Under 40%"",""probability"":0.04190017710836724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.14665061987928535,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.35196148771028485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50-55%"",""probability"":0.335841114227371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55-60%"",""probability"":0.09776707991952356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 60%"",""probability"":0.025879521155168003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Total Seats Over/Under","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""Over"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Under"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Edinburgh Central","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes",,"[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.608410155137639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07964642030892728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.2695724995071385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.00867436260790297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Greens"",""probability"":0.033696562438392315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
index 2d150d2..8742fe8 100644
--- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
+++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
@@ -1101,12 +1101,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen (Cons)",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.7936507936507936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.2063492063492063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1780,33 +1780,33 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
- "title": "Hartlepool By-election: To Win",
+ "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.5261973798876447,
+ "probability": 0.5007033585370143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.4334864129550597,
+ "probability": 0.45063302268331284,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.0045289625234110715,
+ "probability": 0.004483910673465799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.02677416080016545,
+ "probability": 0.026507824863724286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0.009013083833719062,
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
+ "probability": 0.017671883242482856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2062,22 +2062,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.08506316571711667,
+ "probability": 0.11503967380380371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8506316571711666,
+ "probability": 0.8217119557414551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.009264305177111716,
+ "probability": 0.009112053370598314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.055040871934604906,
+ "probability": 0.054136317084142925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2441,12 +2441,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.6076923076923076,
+ "probability": 0.5890052356020942,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.39230769230769225,
+ "probability": 0.4109947643979057,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2492,32 +2492,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 40%",
- "probability": 0.04193230874539787,
+ "probability": 0.04190017710836724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-45%",
- "probability": 0.12579692623619362,
+ "probability": 0.14665061987928535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45-50%",
- "probability": 0.35223139346134213,
+ "probability": 0.35196148771028485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50-55%",
- "probability": 0.33609865788296,
+ "probability": 0.335841114227371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55-60%",
- "probability": 0.11007231045666942,
+ "probability": 0.09776707991952356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 60%",
- "probability": 0.03386840321743675,
+ "probability": 0.025879521155168003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.csv b/data/metaculus-questions.csv
index e4666af..1957de4 100644
--- a/data/metaculus-questions.csv
+++ b/data/metaculus-questions.csv
@@ -28,13 +28,18 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---71 for the calendar year 2018
---91 for the calendar year 2019
","[]",117,,3
+"Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/","Metaculus","In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013):
+A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.
+It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.
+Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",44,,3
"When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/","Metaculus","SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [""fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond""](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a ""rapid unscheduled disassembly"" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).
SpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.
When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?
---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers.
---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively.
---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location.
-","[]",21,,3
+","[]",24,,3
"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.
Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development.
One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time.
@@ -52,18 +57,6 @@ Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human
Be able to learn the classic Atari game ""Montezuma's revenge"" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).)
By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
","[]",129,,3
-"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.
-Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?
-This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:
----Donald Trump
----Melania Trump
----Donald Trump Jr.
----Ivanka Trump
----Eric Trump
----Tiffany Trump
----Barron Trump
----Jared Kushner
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3
"When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
@@ -87,6 +80,14 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).
","[]",28,,3
+"What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/","Metaculus","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:
+the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.
+This question asks:
+What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?
+This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:
+The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.
+Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom
+","[]",53,,3
"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.
There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:
---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.
@@ -96,7 +97,7 @@ The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Pa
Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.
Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",102,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",103,,3
"What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told)
In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June.
@@ -123,6 +124,9 @@ The value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if
If the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.
November was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for ""late 2021"".
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",72,,3
+"Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.
+This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",288,,3
"How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.
You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.
@@ -131,9 +135,6 @@ The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction
How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.
","[]",114,,3
-"Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.
-This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",288,,3
"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/","Metaculus","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?
What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?
The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT).
@@ -148,12 +149,7 @@ Bitfinex
---
Bitstamp
If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.
-","[]",14,,3
-"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.
-Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
-For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,,3
+","[]",26,,3
"When will Blue Origin's ""New Glenn"" rocket complete its first successful test flight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/","Metaculus","Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.
Named after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable.
New Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016.
@@ -165,15 +161,20 @@ And there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket i
When will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?
This question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.
","[]",80,,3
-"Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.
-Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?
-This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
-"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)
-The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?
-This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3
+"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.
+Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
+For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3
+"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).
+The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.
+What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
+On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)
+If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.
+The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.
+If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.
+If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.
+","[]",125,,3
"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.
What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?
@@ -185,18 +186,24 @@ C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come in
I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.
I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.
","[]",213,,3
-"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:
-""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?""
-The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
-The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
-The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",185,,3
"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf).
According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.
How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
","[]",150,,3
+"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence).
+In previous years, the total amounts granted were:
+---2020: $14,210,367
+---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology))
+---2018: $4,160,392
+---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support))
+---2016: $7,749,985
+---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute))
+How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
+This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.
+---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021.
+","[]",72,,3
"What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing).
[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
@@ -207,17 +214,7 @@ What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensit
Resolution
This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.
In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.
-","[]",71,,3
-"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.
-Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?
-The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
----Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair.
----Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days.
----Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx.
-(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)
-The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.
-The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",123,,3
+","[]",72,,3
"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).
See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,
1--
@@ -229,12 +226,25 @@ The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthqu
4--
A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.
","[]",107,,3
-"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level.
-Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).
-Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.
-When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
-Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",37,,3
+"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.
+Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?
+The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
+---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair.
+---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days.
+---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx.
+(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)
+The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.
+The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3
+"Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/","Metaculus","As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.
+Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?
+This resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",93,,3
+"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.
+What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
+This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
+","[]",241,,3
"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life
longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.
@@ -244,18 +254,12 @@ Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 yea
If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.
The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3
-"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.
-What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
-This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
-","[]",240,,3
-"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
-International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.
-Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).
-Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.
-What do you think? When will we cross the threshold?
-For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion.
-(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)
-","[]",366,,3
+"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level.
+Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).
+Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.
+When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
+Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.
+","[]",37,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases.
[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).
@@ -264,6 +268,19 @@ This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
","[]",53,,3
+"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.
+International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.
+Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).
+Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.
+What do you think? When will we cross the threshold?
+For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion.
+(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)
+","[]",366,,3
+"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?
+Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
+The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
+An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1128,,3
"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"".
In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.
In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.
@@ -300,16 +317,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).
","[]",25,,3
-"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/","Metaculus","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).
-What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?
----USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others.
-","[]",13,,3
-"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/","Metaculus","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
-On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""
-Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
-This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
-If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",104,,3
"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/","Metaculus","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely:
---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed.
---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy""
@@ -354,18 +361,18 @@ Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/),
How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?
This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.
","[]",27,,3
-"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).
-Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).
-Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?
-Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
-Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'.
-Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",109,,3
"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.
One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.
Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?
The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",225,,3
+"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"".
+According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.
+Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).
+Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
+This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.
+Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"".
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),
By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]
@@ -377,22 +384,14 @@ This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?
This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",99,,3
-"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
-Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.
-[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).
-But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.
-[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)
-When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
-This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.
-So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.
-If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor.
-","[]",40,,3
-"What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/","Metaculus","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).
-What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?
-This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).
-","[]",86,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",101,,3
+"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
+There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
+In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).
+In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?
+Resolution
+For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.
+","[]",188,,3
"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.
Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.
The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.
@@ -405,9 +404,38 @@ This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organizati
---
At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",91,,3
-"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?
-This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
-","[]",70,,3
+"Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/","Metaculus","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.
+Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?
+This question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:
+---Donald Trump
+---Melania Trump
+---Donald Trump Jr.
+---Ivanka Trump
+---Eric Trump
+---Tiffany Trump
+---Barron Trump
+---Jared Kushner
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3
+"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:
+The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.
+--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)
+CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.
+The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.
+As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.
+Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?
+This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.
+The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.
+In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",193,,3
+"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)
+The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?
+This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",125,,3
+"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).
+On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).
+When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
+This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.
+","[]",134,,3
"Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/","Metaculus","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?
Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?
A list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).
@@ -418,17 +446,66 @@ This question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime i
If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.
In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.
Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore.
-","[]",13,,3
+","[]",14,,3
+"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/","Metaculus","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).
+What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?
+---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others.
+","[]",18,,3
+"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus","Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).
+Since then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).
+Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?
+Will the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?
+Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'.
+Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",109,,3
+"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/","Metaculus","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
+On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""
+Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
+This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
+If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,,3
+"Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).
+In view of the above, this question asks:
+Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?
+---
+This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).
+---
+This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
+The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,,3
+"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
+Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.
+[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).
+But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.
+[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)
+When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
+This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.
+So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.
+If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor.
+","[]",40,,3
+"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?
+This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
+","[]",70,,3
+"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
+Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
+Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
+On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
+Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
+This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
+In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
+Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.
+Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3
+"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
+Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
+This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3
"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”.
The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.
Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?
This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,,3
-"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).
-On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).
-When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
-This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.
-","[]",133,,3
"If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%).
@@ -467,50 +544,6 @@ By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a r
By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.
This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.
","[]",127,,3
-"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.
-What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?
-This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).
-","[]",83,,3
-"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.
-A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague.
-In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
-Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)
-With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.
-Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask:
-Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?
-This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:
----
-Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)
----
-Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)
----
-Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)
-(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)
----
-Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)
----
-Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)
----
-Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)
----
-Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,,3
-"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
-Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
-This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",64,,3
-"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
-Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
-Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
-On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
-Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
-This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
-In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
-Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.
-Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",56,,3
"By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)).
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
@@ -523,6 +556,11 @@ When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds an
If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.
","[]",122,,3
+"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.
+What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?
+This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).
+","[]",85,,3
"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.
Research has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.
As of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.
@@ -530,19 +568,7 @@ How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March
This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.
The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.
If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used.
-","[]",79,,3
-"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
-Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
-This question asks:
-Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
-This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:
----That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.
-And:
----That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.
-The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:
-There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.
-The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3
+","[]",80,,3
"What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.
Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,
This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.
@@ -557,14 +583,18 @@ The Princeton Review Dream Colleges
The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.
This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.
","[]",43,,3
-"Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/","Metaculus","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.
-Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).
-Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.
-Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
-This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.
-This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.
-This question resolves negatively otherwise.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3
+"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
+Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
+This question asks:
+Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
+This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:
+---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement.
+And:
+---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus.
+The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:
+There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.
+The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",141,,3
"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.
This question asks:
What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).
@@ -578,26 +608,25 @@ The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organiz
As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.
Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).
-","[]",100,,3
+","[]",101,,3
"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/","Metaculus","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is.
I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience.
Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so.
Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",95,,3
-"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/).
-Data sources:
----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)
----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html)
----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html)
-What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?
-This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.
-In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated.
-","[]",64,,3
-"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.
-Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
-Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.
-In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,,3
+"Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/","Metaculus","[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.
+Greene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [""Frazzledrip""](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).
+Due to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.
+Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022
+This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.
+This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.
+This question resolves negatively otherwise.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3
+"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).
+Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?
+This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",57,,3
"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission.
The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).
@@ -605,6 +634,11 @@ In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum %
This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6).
If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.
","[]",59,,3
+"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.
+Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
+Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.
+In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,,3
"How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...""
Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.
This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.
@@ -617,6 +651,23 @@ If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves amb
The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.
Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria.
","[]",83,,3
+"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
+---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)
+More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)
+However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.
+In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.
+Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?
+All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.
+For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3
+"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
+[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
+What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?
+This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
+GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
+","[]",133,,3
"Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/","Metaculus","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.
As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland""
More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:
@@ -658,6 +709,16 @@ If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions c
Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.
Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,,3
+"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).
+When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
+This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.
+If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.
+","[]",146,,3
+"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.
+In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.
+What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?
+The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.
+","[]",518,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt).
@@ -665,7 +726,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-","[]",65,,3
+","[]",66,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet.
@@ -693,11 +754,16 @@ Resolution Criteria
Predictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.
Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.
","[]",19,,3
-"Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).
-Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?
-This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3
+"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.
+According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.
+In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.
+This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?
+In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.
+","[]",298,,3
+"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
+Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
+This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3
"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.
@@ -713,7 +779,7 @@ Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus i
How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?
The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.
The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).
-","[]",52,,3
+","[]",57,,3
"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia.
According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:
According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.
@@ -727,17 +793,25 @@ The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's
---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia
---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island
","[]",73,,3
+"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
+[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
+This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
+If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
+If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
+If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+*As judged by a metaculus admin.
+","[]",66,,3
"Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).
The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.
The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier.
This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?
Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",147,,3
-"In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).
-This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.
-In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
-This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",155,,3
"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:
Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.
Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?
@@ -754,7 +828,16 @@ Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are current
So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021.
Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.
If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",70,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",71,,3
+"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
+[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
+This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3
"Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/","Metaculus","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.
In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
@@ -762,7 +845,7 @@ The biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor
The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.
Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,,3
"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.
Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).
In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks:
@@ -786,34 +869,17 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul
This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively.
In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3
-"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)
-There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.
-BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?
-After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",77,,3
-"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
-The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-","[]",72,,3
+"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
+---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)
+Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.
+Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?
+This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,,3
"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.
[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles.
This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?
This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.
","[]",254,,3
-"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
-In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
-As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
-What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?
-This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.
-In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-","[]",77,,3
"Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/","Metaculus","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).
Jeff McAulay argued,
Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.
@@ -834,6 +900,15 @@ The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in questi
---
It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.
","[]",105,,3
+"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).
+In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.
+As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.
+What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?
+This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.
+In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+","[]",78,,3
"What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).
What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?
What will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?
@@ -843,13 +918,17 @@ For example:
---for Sep-2020 this value is:
If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
","[]",33,,3
-"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
----[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/)
-President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.
-Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?
-This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.
-The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,,3
+"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)
+Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.
+How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?
+Resolution:
+---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/)
+---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/)
+---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
+Other possible world:
+---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/)
+See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
+","[]",230,,3
"When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/","Metaculus","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.
It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.
Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.
@@ -859,28 +938,32 @@ As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are acti
When will the first human mission to Venus take place?
This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.
The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state.
-","[]",34,,3
-"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.
-The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.
-When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
-The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.
-","[]",70,,3
-"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
----[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)
-More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)
-However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.
-In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.
-Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?
-All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.
-For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3
+","[]",38,,3
+"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
+---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/)
+President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.
+Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?
+This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.
+The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,,3
+"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.
+This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.
+'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.
+'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.
+If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.
+","[]",30,,3
"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.
Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?
---
Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.
---
The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,,3
+"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.
+The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.
+When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
+The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.
+","[]",70,,3
"Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/","Metaculus","All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.
Political support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.
Adding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.
@@ -893,6 +976,16 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.
Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.
In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,,3
+"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
+To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
+This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?
+For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,,3
+"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.
+[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.
+Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?
+Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
+","[]",479,,3
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
@@ -901,6 +994,29 @@ The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant es
The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.
","[]",118,,3
+"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
+In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
+A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
+The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.
+The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.
+This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?
+If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
+Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).
+","[]",12,,3
+"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background
+==========
+
+[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public.
+With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021.
+According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.
+Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise.
+Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
@@ -919,6 +1035,20 @@ Date,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
","[]",54,,3
+"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).
+At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.
+He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).
+Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?
+This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75.
+This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.
+If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.
+He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3
+"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
+What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?
+This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors.
+","[]",70,,3
"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?
I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.
I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!).
@@ -936,6 +1066,30 @@ This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countri
If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.
If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",48,,3
+"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.
+[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.
+[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.
+As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.
+This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,,3
+"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.
+It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia.
+Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
+Resolution details:
+---
+Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.
+---
+Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.
+---
+Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.
+---
+Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.
+---
+In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).
+---
+If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.
+Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",519,,3
"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -950,7 +1104,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
-","[]",27,,3
+","[]",28,,3
"Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/","Metaculus","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).
The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him.
Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests.
@@ -968,18 +1122,24 @@ Xi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist
Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or
---
Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",297,,3
-"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
-However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
-When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
-Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
-","[]",337,,3
-"When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply.
-In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.
-Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?
-Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online?
-To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.
-","[]",294,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",298,,3
+"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):
+Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election.
+If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.
+Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
+If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.
+If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3
+"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
+While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
+The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
+Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
+When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?
+This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
+If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.
+Related question
+---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)
+","[]",117,,3
"If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/","Metaculus","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%).
@@ -1011,6 +1171,12 @@ If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
If the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
","[]",28,,3
+"When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply.
+In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.
+Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?
+Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online?
+To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.
+","[]",294,,3
"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years.
How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
@@ -1020,7 +1186,7 @@ The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed jo
Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.
How many emoji related court cases in 2021?
Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.
-","[]",36,,3
+","[]",37,,3
"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):
A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.
He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).
@@ -1030,6 +1196,13 @@ Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished.
ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",510,,3
+"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).
+Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
+What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?
+This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.
+Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL).
+","[]",54,,3
"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)
For a precise question we'll ask:
@@ -1051,25 +1224,29 @@ AND
2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).
*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",385,,3
-"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.
-This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).
-The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.
-Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.
-What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?
-Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",37,,3
+"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.
+JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:
+---
+John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.
+---
+Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881.
+---
+Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.
+And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault.
+It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",281,,3
"How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?
How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?
This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.
","[]",103,,3
-"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
-[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
-What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?
-This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
-GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
-","[]",133,,3
+"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).
+The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).
+In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.
+When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?
+This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.
+By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.
+To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.""
+","[]",151,,3
"When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/","Metaculus","After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.
SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).
When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?
@@ -1083,16 +1260,23 @@ To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least on
(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)
(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)
","[]",156,,3
-"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).
-When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
-This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.
-If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.
-","[]",143,,3
"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve?
The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.
""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.
","[]",105,,3
+"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii).
+This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.
+The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.
+Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?
+When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?
+---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span.
+---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race.
+---Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used.
+---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count.
+If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.
+*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)
+","[]",152,,3
"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.
The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.
Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).
@@ -1106,15 +1290,15 @@ How many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?
This will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.
The question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030.
","[]",10,,3
-"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.
-When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
-This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve
-A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):
----Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative
----Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended)
----The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.
----The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.
-","[]",91,,3
+"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted.
+The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.
+This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:
+---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030.
+---There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies.
+---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s.
+The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.
+The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3
"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.
In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
@@ -1147,15 +1331,6 @@ Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political p
While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.
What do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",398,,3
-"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted.
-The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.
-This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:
----The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030.
----There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies.
----A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s.
-The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.
-The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,,3
"How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/","Metaculus","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients.
How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?
Resolution
@@ -1194,10 +1369,23 @@ However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of
These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox.
By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",146,,3
-"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).
-When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?
-This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).
-","[]",38,,3
+"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator):
+The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets.
+The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth.
+By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):
+A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.
+A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.
+Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?
+This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
+The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface.
+Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
+"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
+Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
+This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:
+---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender).
+---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",172,,3
"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960.
Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.
By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
@@ -1215,6 +1403,20 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",135,,3
+"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)
+Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)
+On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned.
+How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?
+Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.
+","[]",193,,3
+"Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?
+Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
+ A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events
+A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \( \frac{p}{1-p} \) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period.
+So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date?
+Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI.
+(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",501,,3
"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations.
A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example.
“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.
@@ -1231,11 +1433,27 @@ Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
---
Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",244,,3
+"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.
+What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?
+---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)).
+---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset.
+Related questions:
+---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/)
+---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/)
+---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)*
+","[]",105,,3
+"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK.
+In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).
+However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).
+When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
+This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
+ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.
+","[]",61,,3
"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.
When will the mammoth be revived?
This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.
The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.
-","[]",49,,3
+","[]",53,,3
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.
When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?
This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:
@@ -1243,6 +1461,11 @@ Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years
Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.
[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.
","[]",73,,3
+"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.
+Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.
+This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
+The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.
+","[]",124,,3
"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published.
The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).
When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?
@@ -1253,6 +1476,17 @@ This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outpu
Patents, announcements, and review units do not count.
*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.
","[]",69,,3
+"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.
+Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.
+If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.
+This question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?
+Related questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)
+[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)
+Resolution Criteria:
+This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.
+If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.
+Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.
+","[]",33,,3
"When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.
Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.
French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.
@@ -1266,45 +1500,25 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea
Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.
In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
","[]",15,,3
-"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.
-In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.
-What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?
-The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.
-","[]",518,,3
-"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.
-Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.
-If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.
-This question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?
-Related questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)
-[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)
-Resolution Criteria:
-This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.
-If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.
-Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.
-","[]",33,,3
+"When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:
+The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.
+While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.
+When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?
+This question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:
+1--
+There is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.
+Any future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.
+2--
+The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.
+The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.
+For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.
+The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question.
+","[]",28,,3
"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6.
(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)
When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?
The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.
-","[]",42,,3
-"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).
-The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.
-Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).
-[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.
-Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?
-This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,,3
-"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
-The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
-The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
-Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
-How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
-Data
-According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
-2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
-","[]",133,,3
+","[]",51,,3
"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),
Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.
From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),
@@ -1323,6 +1537,32 @@ The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [
Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,,3
+"Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).
+The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.
+Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).
+[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.
+Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?
+This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,,3
+"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
+The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
+The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
+Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
+How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
+Data
+According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
+2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
+","[]",133,,3
+"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.
+Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
+The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).
+Related Questions
+---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
+---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/)
+If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",237,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.
@@ -1331,11 +1571,21 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Wor
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
","[]",68,,3
+"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/)
+In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)
+Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
+Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",568,,3
"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.
When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?
This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.
'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.
-","[]",105,,3
+","[]",107,,3
+"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)
+There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.
+BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?
+After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,,3
"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?
Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party.
@@ -1350,6 +1600,14 @@ A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core co
B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)
This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,,3
+"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
+He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)
+However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election
+Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
+Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
+Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
+Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,,3
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus","Related questions:
[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)
[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)
@@ -1359,12 +1617,6 @@ When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
","[]",148,,3
-"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.
-According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.
-In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.
-This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?
-In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.
-","[]",298,,3
"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","Context
=======
@@ -1377,20 +1629,16 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.
-","[]",38,,3
-"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
-Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
-This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3
-"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).
-While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).
-When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?
-The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits.
-The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).
-Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range.
-The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.
-The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above.
-","[]",37,,3
+","[]",39,,3
+"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/).
+Data sources:
+---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)
+---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html)
+---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html)
+What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?
+This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.
+In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated.
+","[]",66,,3
"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.
This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease.
This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).
@@ -1403,6 +1651,15 @@ How many new cases of COVID-19 in:
---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/)
Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
","[]",983,,3
+"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).
+While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).
+When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?
+The question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits.
+The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).
+Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range.
+The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.
+The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above.
+","[]",42,,3
"What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/","Metaculus","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:
[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):
Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme
@@ -1421,11 +1678,18 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.
[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).
What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?
---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html)
-","[]",17,,3
+","[]",21,,3
"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester).
Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?
The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",121,,3
+"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),
+The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.
+Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.
+If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.""
+Will we find life on Mars by 2050?
+This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3
"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.
Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.
When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?
@@ -1456,13 +1720,6 @@ Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question f
The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.
Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported.
","[]",23,,3
-"Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),
-The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.
-Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.
-If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, ""scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.""
-Will we find life on Mars by 2050?
-This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,,3
"In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,
According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.
Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model.
@@ -1477,19 +1734,6 @@ ETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it r
This question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?
Resolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.
","[]",111,,3
-"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
-[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
-This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
-If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
-If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
-If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-*As judged by a metaculus admin.
-","[]",66,,3
"How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/","Metaculus","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.
In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3),
The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]
@@ -1517,6 +1761,10 @@ Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was pri
A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.
Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3
+"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
+Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
+Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",173,,3
"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?
@@ -1537,20 +1785,6 @@ In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that
The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",379,,3
-"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
-[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
-This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",58,,3
-"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that
-Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.
-Will Hanson win the bet?
-Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",195,,3
"World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.
Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.
Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?
@@ -1569,17 +1803,15 @@ Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadl
If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",71,,3
+"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that
+Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.
+Will Hanson win the bet?
+Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",198,,3
"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",153,,3
-"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule.
-Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%.
-However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.
-When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?
-This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.
-Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity.
-","[]",212,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",168,,3
"Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.
Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.
By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.
@@ -1612,6 +1844,27 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",249,,3
+"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule.
+Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%.
+However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.
+When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?
+This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.
+Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity.
+","[]",213,,3
+"When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.
+When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?
+This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve
+A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):
+---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative
+---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended)
+---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.
+---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.
+","[]",103,,3
+"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened.
+There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.
+Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
+The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",461,,3
"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).
Joseph F. Huttner argued,
1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]
@@ -1623,15 +1876,16 @@ My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that th
Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,,3
+"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
+However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
+When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
+Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
+","[]",338,,3
"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus","[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.
[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.
How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?
This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.
","[]",58,,3
-"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
-Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
-Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",172,,3
"What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -1653,6 +1907,18 @@ The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, whi
Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?
This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for ""S.F. Bay Area"" is <= $1.045mm
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,,3
+"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.
+This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).
+The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.
+Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.
+What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?
+Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.
+","[]",38,,3
+"What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/","Metaculus","The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).
+What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?
+This question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).
+","[]",88,,3
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
@@ -1664,12 +1930,6 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
","[]",92,,3
-"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.
-On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"".
-When will the US-EU border reopen?
-Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.
-Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.
-","[]",28,,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?
@@ -1682,6 +1942,12 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in term
"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.
The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",165,,3
+"When will the US-EU border reopen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/","Metaculus","The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.
+On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions ""shall remain in effect until terminated by the President"".
+When will the US-EU border reopen?
+Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.
+Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.
+","[]",28,,3
"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons.
On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.
The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.
@@ -1692,12 +1958,6 @@ Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, t
---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with.
---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",63,,3
-"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","related question on Metaculus:
----[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)
-Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.
-Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?
-This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,,3
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
@@ -1707,16 +1967,16 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
","[]",47,,3
-"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).
-GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.
-Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.
-Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",131,,3
"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration).
","[]",167,,3
+"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).
+GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.
+Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.
+Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",131,,3
"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist.
After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).
What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
@@ -1746,18 +2006,12 @@ This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time
---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC.
This question resolves negatively otherwise.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",146,,3
-"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)
-Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.
-How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?
-Resolution:
----Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/)
----If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/)
----If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
-Other possible world:
----[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/)
-See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
-","[]",230,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",159,,3
+"In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/","Metaculus","An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).
+This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.
+In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
+This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,,3
"When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/","Metaculus","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)
It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.
In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu).
@@ -1810,12 +2064,6 @@ If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer
If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).
[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",43,,3
-"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.
-This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.
-'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.
-'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.
-If the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.
-","[]",30,,3
"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/","Metaculus","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).
After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.
@@ -1833,12 +2081,19 @@ The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol
If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
","[]",300,,3
+"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/","Metaculus","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.
+As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
+[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
+Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?
+This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.
+In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,,3
"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1143,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1144,,3
"What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?
""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.
@@ -1861,11 +2116,24 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi
---
Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"".
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,,3
-"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
-To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
-This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?
-For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,,3
+"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
+The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.
+To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19.
+---
+This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.
+---
+Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened.
+The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:
+---
+Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.
+---
+Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
+---
+No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV
+---
+The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
+If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.
+","[]",58,,3
"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.
Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.
This question asks:
@@ -1932,16 +2200,11 @@ If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that
If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
*As judged by a metaculus admin.
","[]",59,,3
-"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.
-[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.
-Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?
-Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
-","[]",479,,3
"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.
In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.
So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035?
Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",588,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",589,,3
"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).
The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.
This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?
@@ -1975,31 +2238,16 @@ Resolution
This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).
","[]",48,,3
-"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.
-Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
----If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively.
----This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024.
----Platforms must be open to the public.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",179,,3
+"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so.
+This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?
+Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
+","[]",207,,3
"In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/","Metaculus","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.
In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).
In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?
Resolution
This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as ""> Dec 24, 2035"".
","[]",98,,3
-"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so.
-This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?
-Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
-","[]",205,,3
-"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
-In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
-A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
-The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.
-The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.
-This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?
-If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
-Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).
-","[]",12,,3
"How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/","Metaculus","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.
There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
Data sources and more information:
@@ -2038,21 +2286,7 @@ In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-ch
What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%.
Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46.
-","[]",87,,3
-"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background
-==========
-
-[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public.
-With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021.
-According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.
-Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise.
-Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,,3
+","[]",90,,3
"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.
The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.
What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?
@@ -2062,15 +2296,6 @@ Related questions:
---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/)
---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)
","[]",40,,3
-"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).
-At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.
-He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).
-Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?
-This question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75.
-This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.
-If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.
-He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3
"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.
However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.
Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.
@@ -2079,11 +2304,6 @@ When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.
For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.
","[]",41,,3
-"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
-What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?
-This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors.
-","[]",70,,3
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
@@ -2102,12 +2322,6 @@ The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#va
Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M.
If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.
","[]",174,,3
-"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.
-[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.
-[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.
-As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.
-This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,,3
"13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/","Metaculus","Context
-------
@@ -2189,36 +2403,18 @@ Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to
During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).
The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",328,,3
-"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
-In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
-Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
-This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3
-"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.
-It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia.
-Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?
-Resolution details:
----
-Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.
----
-Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.
----
-Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.
----
-Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.
----
-In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).
----
-If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.
-Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",519,,3
"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?
Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?
This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.
If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).
Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",445,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",446,,3
+"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
+In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
+Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
+This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3
"When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/","Metaculus","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.
The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:
To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.
@@ -2242,20 +2438,13 @@ The AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easi
The AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.
If the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.
If the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",17,,3
+","[]",19,,3
"By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/","Metaculus","Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html).
As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can ""pass a Turing test"" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.
For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).
By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?
Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",130,,3
-"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):
-Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election.
-If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.
-Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
-If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.
-If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",246,,3
"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/","Metaculus","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male.
Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?
New resolution criteria:
@@ -2282,16 +2471,6 @@ To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or
---
The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",194,,3
-"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
-While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
-The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
-Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
-When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?
-This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
-If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.
-Related question
----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)
-","[]",117,,3
"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html).
There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
@@ -2332,7 +2511,20 @@ According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldba
Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?
Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.
This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",778,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",780,,3
+"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","Context
+=======
+
+Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers.
+As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.
+Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available.
+Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",70,,3
"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus","It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.
Chile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400.
The U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership.
@@ -2347,26 +2539,6 @@ Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) o
This question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019.
This question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,,3
-"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).
-Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
-What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?
-This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.
-Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL).
-","[]",54,,3
-"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","Context
-=======
-
-Travel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers.
-As of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.
-Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available.
-Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",70,,3
"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).
In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:
How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?
@@ -2389,7 +2561,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",92,,3
+","[]",94,,3
"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.
A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).
Data sources and more information:
@@ -2424,36 +2596,18 @@ Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 20
This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.
See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",204,,3
-"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"".
-According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.
-Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).
-Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
-This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.
-Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"".
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,,3
-"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).
-With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.
-The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’
-When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?
-Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.
-","[]",225,,3
"What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/","Metaculus","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale):
The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.
Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)
What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?
The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.
","[]",24,,3
-"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.
-JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:
----
-John Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.
----
-Charles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881.
----
-Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.
-And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault.
-It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",281,,3
+"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).
+With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.
+The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’
+When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?
+Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.
+","[]",225,,3
"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).
This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?
Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.
@@ -2466,18 +2620,6 @@ Will the GWB be detected by 2075?
Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?
This resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at > 4-sigma.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,,3
-"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii).
-This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.
-The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.
-Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?
-When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?
----The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 ""agent actions""* over any five second span.
----The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race.
----Whether the player is ""top ten"" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used.
----If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count.
-If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.
-*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)
-","[]",152,,3
"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.
The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.
Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.
@@ -2542,7 +2684,7 @@ Will UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?
This question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes.
In the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.
If a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",157,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,,3
"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.
The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).
What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?
@@ -2574,15 +2716,7 @@ This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in
Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.
Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",508,,3
-"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.
-This question will resolve positively if:
----someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and
----Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election.
-This question will resolve ambiguously if:
----Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021.
----Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",574,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",510,,3
"Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus","In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [""The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.""](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.
Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.
Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?
@@ -2597,6 +2731,14 @@ Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall
---Tesla
For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",60,,3
+"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.
+This question will resolve positively if:
+---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and
+---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election.
+This question will resolve ambiguously if:
+---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021.
+---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",575,,3
"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):
on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.
Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?
@@ -2625,23 +2767,6 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale
Resolution
This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.
","[]",123,,3
-"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator):
-The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets.
-The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth.
-By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):
-A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.
-A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.
-Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?
-This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
-The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface.
-Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
-"What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus","In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity.
-Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).
-Currently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.
-What will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?
-For the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.
-","[]",132,,3
"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -2676,31 +2801,17 @@ This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more
This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.
November is defined according to UTC
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",185,,3
-"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):
-Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.
-As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.
-When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
-This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count.
-If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"".
-In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.
-","[]",31,,3
-"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
-Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
-This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:
----Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender).
----Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",171,,3
-"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?
-A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.
-Who will win?
-Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",874,,3
"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.
Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?
The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.
This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.
If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3
+"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?
+A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.
+Who will win?
+Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",874,,3
"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/","Metaculus","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.
In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).
Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?
@@ -2743,7 +2854,7 @@ The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at t
You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print]
-","[]",59,,3
+","[]",62,,3
"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.
U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.
U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.
@@ -2751,6 +2862,13 @@ The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc
Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?
The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",202,,3
+"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
+[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
+What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?
+This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
+GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
+","[]",69,,3
"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/).
With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/).
In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)
@@ -2758,13 +2876,6 @@ How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calenda
This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.
Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).
","[]",106,,3
-"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
-[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
-What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?
-This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
-GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
-","[]",68,,3
"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?
Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
@@ -2801,7 +2912,7 @@ If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?
This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",86,,3
+","[]",87,,3
"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
@@ -2838,7 +2949,7 @@ The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to
For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.
The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.
If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",95,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",96,,3
"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.
The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.""
The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.""
@@ -2940,6 +3051,13 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.
For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid.
","[]",69,,3
+"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
+[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
+What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?
+This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
+GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
+","[]",56,,3
"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?
@@ -2961,13 +3079,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019
---7,128 for the calendar year 2020
","[]",66,,3
-"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
-[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
-What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?
-This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
-GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
-","[]",56,,3
"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).
In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists.
Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).
@@ -2978,41 +3089,11 @@ For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orb
What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?
The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.
","[]",222,,3
-"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)
-Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)
-On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned.
-How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?
-Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.
-","[]",193,,3
-"Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?
-Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
- A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events
-A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \( \frac{p}{1-p} \) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period.
-So, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date?
-Some examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI.
-(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",501,,3
-"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus","[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about ""per capita"" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.
-What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?
----IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)).
----If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset.
-Related questions:
----[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/)
----[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/)
----[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)*
-","[]",104,,3
"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/","Metaculus","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.
Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.
When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?
This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.
","[]",74,,3
-"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/","Metaculus","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.
-As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
-[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
-Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?
-This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.
-In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,,3
"When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995.
According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):
PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.
@@ -3051,13 +3132,6 @@ Data
These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):
2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)
","[]",61,,3
-"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK.
-In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).
-However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).
-When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
-This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
-ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.
-","[]",61,,3
"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.
This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050?
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.
@@ -3071,12 +3145,7 @@ The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslim
Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used.
As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,,3
-"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.
-Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.
-This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
-The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.
-","[]",123,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.050000000000000044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,,3
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.
@@ -3101,7 +3170,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the
This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).
Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.
If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",88,,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
@@ -3141,14 +3210,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?
This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.
","[]",35,,3
-"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).
-The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).
-In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.
-When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?
-This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.
-By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.
-To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.""
-","[]",149,,3
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/","Metaculus","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw.
In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
1--
@@ -3173,7 +3234,7 @@ Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per
This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.
A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",589,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",609,,3
"When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/","Metaculus","[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)
Data of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).
When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?
@@ -3202,7 +3263,7 @@ With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-gen
She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag.
Given the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.
Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",357,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",358,,3
"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?
The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
","[]",216,,3
@@ -3212,11 +3273,6 @@ Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years
This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",871,,3
-"Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):
-Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.
-So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
----It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",115,,3
"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/","Metaculus","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar.
The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.
Its predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019.
@@ -3233,6 +3289,11 @@ The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy.
---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",62,,3
+"Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/","Metaculus","France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):
+Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.
+So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
+---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,,3
"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/","Metaculus","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
@@ -3250,20 +3311,6 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImage
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
","[]",57,,3
-"When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:
-The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.
-While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.
-When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?
-This question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:
-1--
-There is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.
-Any future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.
-2--
-The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.
-The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.
-For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.
-The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question.
-","[]",24,,3
"Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/","Metaculus","There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).
A recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&cid=F3C3887684911EE4&id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.
Summaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).
@@ -3290,26 +3337,21 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1
When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.
In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution.
-","[]",74,,3
+","[]",87,,3
"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/","Metaculus","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.
Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.
What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.
This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.
-","[]",24,,3
+","[]",25,,3
"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.
Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",297,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",299,,3
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.
When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?
This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.
","[]",206,,3
-"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened.
-There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.
-Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
-The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",458,,3
"How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)
With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.
To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)
@@ -3323,7 +3365,13 @@ This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard
This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.
Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).
If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.
-","[]",199,,3
+","[]",204,,3
+"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.
+The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high.""
+On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?
+The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low.""
+If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.
+","[]",45,,3
"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:
In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.
@@ -3333,13 +3381,7 @@ Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?
If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.
If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.
Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",69,,3
-"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.
-The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high.""
-On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?
-The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low.""
-If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.
-","[]",42,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",73,,3
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
@@ -3381,6 +3423,9 @@ Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, ar
In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.
Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",240,,3
+"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/","Metaculus","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?
+This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",60,,3
"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -3394,15 +3439,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",242,,3
-"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/","Metaculus","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?
-This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",60,,3
-"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?
-Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
-The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
-An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1114,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",246,,3
"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]
[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.
@@ -3410,16 +3447,7 @@ In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breakin
When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.
Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-","[]",210,,3
-"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):
-4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.
-4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.
-The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.
-[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.
-When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
-This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.
-If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.
-","[]",402,,3
+","[]",211,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet.
@@ -3456,7 +3484,7 @@ If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97
---
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2693,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2710,,3
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/","Metaculus","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
@@ -3483,12 +3511,12 @@ Tiffany Trump
Melania Trump
---
Barron Trump
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",554,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",556,,3
"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3.
As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).
What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?
Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).
-","[]",174,,3
+","[]",177,,3
"Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.
If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?
435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.
@@ -3505,7 +3533,7 @@ This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Fo
In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.
This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.
-","[]",168,,3
+","[]",171,,3
"When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/","Metaculus","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.
Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:
@@ -3515,17 +3543,6 @@ Currently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with
Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.
Similar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)
","[]",83,,3
-"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:
-The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.
---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)
-CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.
-The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.
-As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.
-Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?
-This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.
-The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.
-In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",188,,3
"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/","Metaculus","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.
That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min)
All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916):
@@ -3536,27 +3553,16 @@ And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen
When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.
Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",234,,3
-"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.
-Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
-The question will resolve:
-1--Rishi Sunak
-2--Michael Gove
-3--Jeremy Hunt
-4--Priti Patel
-5--None of the above
-The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.
-If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-","[]",160,,3
-"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.
-What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
-The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
-","[]",116,,3
"Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/","Metaculus","[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)
roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.
In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.
Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",63,,3
+"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.
+What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
+The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
+","[]",117,,3
"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.
At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.
@@ -3583,7 +3589,7 @@ This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1
Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value.
The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)
Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",78,,3
"Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/","Metaculus","The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.
The proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.
In order to pass the cut to aid, [an act of parliament is required](https://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/uk-aid-cuts-to-be-enshrined-in-law-ministers-concede/), while the large majority held by the Conservative Party makes a defeat unlikely, the discontent surrounding the bill makes it at least possible. There has been some discussion from Effective Altruists about exerting pressure in this direction, see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a5qSgWBLRsicYFRFm/gbp4bn-for-the-global-poor-the-uk-s-0-7) for more.
@@ -3601,6 +3607,16 @@ We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with spac
It is asked:
By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",434,,3
+"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
+O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
+For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
+General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
+The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.
+How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?
+This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*
+For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).
+If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.
+","[]",77,,3
"How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -3615,23 +3631,13 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.
","[]",32,,3
-"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
-O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
-For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
-General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)
-The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.
-How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?
-This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*
-For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).
-If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.
-","[]",75,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).
As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.
Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",503,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",539,,3
"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","Context
Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.
@@ -3640,7 +3646,7 @@ This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil
Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1316,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1319,,3
"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.
Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?
After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?
@@ -3649,14 +3655,7 @@ After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 20
2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously.
3--All prices are in USD.
4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",202,,3
-"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.
-As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.
-On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?
-[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)
-Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).
-If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.
-","[]",272,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",210,,3
"Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/","Metaculus","The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.
Tensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.
Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?
@@ -3664,6 +3663,13 @@ This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Sen
""Senator"" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.
The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",102,,3
+"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.
+As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.
+On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?
+[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)
+Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).
+If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.
+","[]",307,,3
"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
@@ -3671,7 +3677,7 @@ Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compare
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?
This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.
-","[]",324,,3
+","[]",327,,3
"What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/","Metaculus","Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”
In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.
What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
@@ -3689,12 +3695,6 @@ This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia
If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.
If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge.
","[]",26,,3
-"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
-The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year.
-This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?
-The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).
-Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.
-","[]",168,,3
"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/","Metaculus","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).
Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
@@ -3703,11 +3703,6 @@ If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election
---
If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,,3
-"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/)
-In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)
-Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
-Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",561,,3
"When will Russia become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.
When will Russia become a democracy?
This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.
@@ -3728,14 +3723,6 @@ High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the tw
For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).
The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?
","[]",117,,3
-"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.
-Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
-The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).
-Related Questions
----[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
----[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/)
-If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3
"Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.
Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.
@@ -3774,7 +3761,13 @@ This uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible
Because of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?
Will the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13?
If clarification is needed of what counts as ""human"", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). ""Off of planet Earth"" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",487,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",490,,3
+"What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus","In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity.
+Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).
+Currently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.
+What will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?
+For the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.
+","[]",137,,3
"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose.
The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna.
[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):
@@ -3798,6 +3791,45 @@ As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communi
Will this goal be realized?
The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",258,,3
+"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.
+A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague.
+In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
+Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)
+With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.
+Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask:
+Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?
+This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:
+---
+Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)
+---
+Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)
+---
+Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)
+(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)
+---
+Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)
+---
+Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)
+---
+Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)
+---
+Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,,3
+"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
+The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year.
+This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?
+The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.
+Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.
+","[]",174,,3
+"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):
+4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.
+4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.
+The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.
+[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.
+When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
+This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.
+If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.
+","[]",423,,3
"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/","Metaculus","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020.
Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs.
While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.
@@ -3808,6 +3840,30 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
","[]",21,,3
+"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).
+When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?
+This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).
+","[]",41,,3
+"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.
+Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
+The question will resolve:
+1--Rishi Sunak
+2--Michael Gove
+3--Jeremy Hunt
+4--Priti Patel
+5--None of the above
+The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.
+If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+","[]",160,,3
+"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
+The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+","[]",74,,3
"How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/","Metaculus","According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):
Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.
According to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.
@@ -3835,6 +3891,14 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImage
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
","[]",137,,3
+"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):
+Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.
+As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.
+When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
+This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count.
+If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"".
+In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.
+","[]",31,,3
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).
As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public.
@@ -3884,6 +3948,11 @@ In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identi
What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?
This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.
","[]",92,,3
+"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/","Metaculus","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.
+Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?
+Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?
+Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,,3
"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/","Metaculus","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)).
Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.
@@ -3917,11 +3986,23 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100.
","[]",67,,3
+"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:
+""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?""
+The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
+The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
+The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",195,,3
+"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.
+Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
+---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively.
+---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024.
+---Platforms must be open to the public.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",180,,3
"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/","Metaculus","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.
Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",43,,3
"What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/","Metaculus","Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.
What will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?
","[]",35,,3
@@ -3973,7 +4054,7 @@ Related questions:
---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
-","[]",150,,3
+","[]",152,,3
"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/","Metaculus","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.
In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners.
The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.
@@ -4027,7 +4108,7 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202
---It must happen before 2022.
---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election).
---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",355,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",356,,3
"When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/","Metaculus","This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).
Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).
To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.
@@ -4060,16 +4141,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-
This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-","[]",46,,3
-"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).
-The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.
-What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
-On 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)
-If the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.
-The price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.
-If that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.
-If a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.
-","[]",121,,3
+","[]",48,,3
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/","Metaculus","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.
This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.
Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).
@@ -4086,7 +4158,7 @@ Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the Unit
In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution.
A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities.
A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1065,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1066,,3
"Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/","Metaculus","previous Metaculus questions:
---
[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)
@@ -4228,7 +4300,7 @@ If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to
The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.
If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"".
If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",711,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",714,,3
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6676/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
@@ -4331,6 +4403,12 @@ Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?
This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.
Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
+"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/","Metaculus","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.
+Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
+This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
+This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",140,,3
"When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/","Metaculus","Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/).
[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).
Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.
@@ -4343,12 +4421,6 @@ This question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The questio
Changelog:
2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).
","[]",116,,3
-"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/","Metaculus","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.
-Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
-This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
-This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,,3
"How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Donald Trump is included, which spot will he earn overall?
Please note that there have already been two prominent historical rankings of presidents which have included Donald Trump. [One](https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Presidents-2018-Rank-by-Category.pdf) gave him a rank of 42/44 and [another](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/opinion/how-does-trump-stack-up-against-the-best-and-worst-presidents.html) gave him a rank of 44/44 (though only 40/44 when you ask only Republican scholars).
How will Donald Trump rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?
@@ -4414,7 +4486,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
-","[]",66,,3
+","[]",68,,3
"When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/","Metaculus","Context
=======
@@ -4464,7 +4536,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.
-","[]",53,,3
+","[]",54,,3
"When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/","Metaculus","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify):
Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.
Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.
@@ -4482,7 +4554,7 @@ The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly d
I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.
By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?
This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,,3
"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/","Metaculus","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.
[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.
@@ -4496,16 +4568,7 @@ Increasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2
Currently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.
Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",285,,3
-"When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/","Metaculus","[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material.
-The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.
-An early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.
-This question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth?
-The date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'
-By 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.
-This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.
-Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.
-","[]",74,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",287,,3
"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.
Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
@@ -4519,6 +4582,15 @@ In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this quest
3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party.
If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",43,,3
+"When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/","Metaculus","[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material.
+The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.
+An early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.
+This question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth?
+The date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'
+By 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.
+This means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.
+Resolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.
+","[]",76,,3
"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/","Metaculus","A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),
a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.
When will be the next S&P 500 correction?
@@ -4537,6 +4609,12 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
","[]",31,,3
+"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border.
+The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes.
+23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.
+Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?
+This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",681,,3
"How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/","Metaculus","Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.
Question
@@ -4570,12 +4648,6 @@ If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.
If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.
Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.
","[]",118,,3
-"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus","The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border.
-The [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by ""The Big One,"" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes.
-23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.
-Will a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?
-This question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",683,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
@@ -4597,7 +4669,7 @@ The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as t
Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
-","[]",431,,3
+","[]",435,,3
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
@@ -4806,7 +4878,7 @@ This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the Decemb
---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.
---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.
This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.
-","[]",80,,3
+","[]",93,,3
"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
@@ -4930,7 +5002,7 @@ This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale sola
"What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/","Metaculus","Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.
-","[]",176,,3
+","[]",177,,3
"Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/","Metaculus","According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.
Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.
@@ -4974,6 +5046,12 @@ This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLO
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
","[]",321,,3
+"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.""
+[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.
+Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?
+The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.
+Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,,3
"When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/","Metaculus","While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.
Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.
[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated ""as early as April"":
@@ -4986,17 +5064,11 @@ When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United Stat
This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.
Similar language to widely available, such as ""generally available"" or ""available for all who want it"", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.
To be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery.
-","[]",437,,3
-"Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/","Metaculus","From wikipedia ""the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.""
-[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.
-Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?
-The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.
-Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,,3
+","[]",440,,3
"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.
Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?
This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",289,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",291,,3
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.
When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?
This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.
@@ -5071,7 +5143,7 @@ It also resolves positively if:
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.
In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.
* ""longevity research"" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",206,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",213,,3
"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
@@ -5134,7 +5206,7 @@ This question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are mov
This question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.
Note that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.
Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",71,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,,3
"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question).
Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.
It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
@@ -5153,14 +5225,6 @@ This question asks:
Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
Resolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",93,,3
-"What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/","Metaculus","[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:
-the short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.
-This question asks:
-What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?
-This question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:
-The range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.
-Patients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom
-","[]",47,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/","Metaculus","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
@@ -5168,7 +5232,7 @@ Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become p
Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.
If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",381,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",382,,3
"When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.
This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).
","[]",90,,3
@@ -5183,7 +5247,7 @@ When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?
This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.
While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.
If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.
-","[]",681,,3
+","[]",682,,3
"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.
Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases.
EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.
@@ -5377,14 +5441,14 @@ According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.five
Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?
The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",422,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",422,,3
"Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).
A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).
As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.
Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.
There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",205,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",217,,3
"When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).
On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).
This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):
@@ -5441,7 +5505,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",360,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",361,,3
"When will the UK hold its next general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","---
The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.
---
@@ -5472,7 +5536,7 @@ This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or an
"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.
Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",113,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,,3
"When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/","Metaculus","The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.
Ever since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:
some efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.
@@ -5513,18 +5577,6 @@ As of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record
To avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.
I have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.
","[]",188,,3
-"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence).
-In previous years, the total amounts granted were:
----2020: $14,210,367
----2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology))
----2018: $4,160,392
----2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support))
----2016: $7,749,985
----2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute))
-How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
-This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.
----A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021.
-","[]",60,,3
"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/","Metaculus","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).
What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?
What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.
@@ -5578,7 +5630,7 @@ It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It w
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.
Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?
This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",89,,3
"Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/","Metaculus","In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,
Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.
This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.
@@ -5653,11 +5705,15 @@ Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before
Resolution
For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",228,,3
+"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.
+Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
+This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",192,,3
"When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/","Metaculus","On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.
When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.
If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”
-","[]",221,,3
+","[]",225,,3
"Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/","Metaculus","Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).
But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:
The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.
@@ -5671,11 +5727,7 @@ Russia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://ww
It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an ""aggressive"" time line.
Can we get there before the 2030s?
Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",461,,3
-"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.
-Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
-This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",192,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",463,,3
"How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills.
In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?
@@ -5686,7 +5738,7 @@ Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to
This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021.
If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.
5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",132,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",136,,3
"Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/","Metaculus","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/).
Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
@@ -5725,7 +5777,7 @@ If any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be on
This question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?
For a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).
Resolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",226,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",227,,3
"What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/","Metaculus","The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is
an index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.
It ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).
@@ -5765,7 +5817,7 @@ This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30t
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?
This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",151,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",159,,3
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.
As of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public.
@@ -5780,7 +5832,7 @@ This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 dose
"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.
Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?
Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",103,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,,3
"When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).
The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).
Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people.
@@ -5818,7 +5870,7 @@ The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchands
Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.
When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.
-","[]",139,,3
+","[]",147,,3
"What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).
What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
@@ -6203,7 +6255,7 @@ This questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of th
---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.
Assessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include ""probably"", ""likely"", ""with high probability"" and ""almost certainly"".
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",464,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",465,,3
"Will US income inequality increase by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/","Metaculus","According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.
Therefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.
At any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?
@@ -6252,7 +6304,7 @@ This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?
This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",77,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",78,,3
"When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/","Metaculus","Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada.
The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.
Uber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.
@@ -6282,7 +6334,7 @@ If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will repl
If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved.
If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count.
The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399.
-","[]",159,,3
+","[]",173,,3
"What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.
It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
@@ -6309,7 +6361,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
-","[]",49,,3
+","[]",50,,3
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/","Metaculus","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?
@@ -6410,7 +6462,7 @@ As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in whi
Will Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?
This question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating ""repressed economic activity"". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.
Edit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",223,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",224,,3
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
@@ -6516,6 +6568,11 @@ In this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation,
It is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
","[]",234,,3
+"By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/","Metaculus","An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.
+By March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.
+By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?
+The price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+","[]",11,,3
"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/","Metaculus","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)
In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
@@ -6526,7 +6583,7 @@ Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger wea
Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?
This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.
This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",183,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",201,,3
"Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/","Metaculus","Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.
It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.
Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.
@@ -6601,7 +6658,7 @@ In 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brow
Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?
This question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.
Historical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",90,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",91,,3
"Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/","Metaculus","[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:
---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)
---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)
@@ -6624,6 +6681,14 @@ The AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.
The question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.
If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",149,,3
+"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.
+As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html)
+In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.
+On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H)
+Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?
+This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing.
+If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",318,,3
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/","Metaculus","[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with ""Yes"" or ""No"", was ""Should Scotland be an independent country?""
The ""No"" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage.
Since 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question ""Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"" with ""Leave,"" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with ""Remain."" The ""Leave"" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.
@@ -6635,15 +6700,7 @@ If, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that
In the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.
In the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.
In the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",622,,3
-"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus","[AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. d/b/a AMC Theatres,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMC_Theatres) is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. After acquiring Odeon Cinemas, UCI Cinemas, and Carmike Cinemas in 2016, it became the largest movie theater chain in both the world and the United States. It has 2,200 screens in 244 theatres in Europe and over 8,200 screens in 661 theatres in the United States.
-As of March 18, 2020, all AMC theaters were temporarily closed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. On August 20, 2020, [AMC resumed theatre operations with offerings of $0.15 tickets.](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/media/amc-reopening-ticket-prices/index.html)
-In October 2020, the company [announced that ""existing cash resources would be largely depleted by the end of 2020 or early 2021.""](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/13/21514822/amc-theaters-cash-movies-delays-closing-pandemic-debt-regal) This sparked concerns that the company may seek bankruptcy protection.
-On October 13 2020, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-13/amc-theaters-said-to-mull-bankruptcy-after-moviegoers-stay-home) that AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is considering a range of options that include a potential bankruptcy to ease its debt load as the pandemic keeps moviegoers from attending and studios from supplying films. As of October 23 2020, [AMC's stock is down more than 60% year-to-date.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFoYAXucyOJCdwVmRgGg_ZpQJatNSX43ixsB0TH5_QQFL1g-qDzbWTm5a7eQbNrjP_D4-tkDIGR0H6huvlBVn7TBpMTUDcXbmZHJoemmX1lj1Cgob9aBu6BfY9kCZrGzF3o9POw6vdqTHH1o9tWk9mr3kEZYkxcfCVKqhmr7lQ8H)
-Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?
-This question resolves positively if at any time before 1 April 2021, AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. or any parent company thereof submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code. No court ruling need be made for a positive resolution; only a filing.
-If AMC is acquired before this question resolves, the resolution will depend on whether the parent company files for bankruptcy before April 2021. If AMC is broken up into multiple companies before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",318,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",623,,3
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -6727,6 +6784,12 @@ Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolu
Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.
Closing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)
","[]",145,,3
+"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/","Metaculus","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party.
+In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
+More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).
+Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
+Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",55,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.
@@ -6737,12 +6800,6 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved o
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
","[]",175,,3
-"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/","Metaculus","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party.
-In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
-More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).
-Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
-Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",49,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases.
[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
@@ -6802,7 +6859,7 @@ What will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a sp
The point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.
Fine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.
(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)
-","[]",202,,3
+","[]",204,,3
"When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/","Metaculus","The scientific definition of ""species"" is surprisingly complicated.
As this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:
At first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.
@@ -6884,7 +6941,7 @@ A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least
2--
At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.
(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",584,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",592,,3
"Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/","Metaculus","In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,
a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.
The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:
@@ -6933,7 +6990,7 @@ Because the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",92,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",94,,3
"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)
Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.
For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.
@@ -6962,7 +7019,7 @@ In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more
Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.
When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?
This question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.
-","[]",85,,3
+","[]",87,,3
"Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).
His preservation was rather primitive and late:
Bedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].
@@ -7471,7 +7528,7 @@ Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial
Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.
-","[]",241,,3
+","[]",242,,3
"What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/","Metaculus","The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.
SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease.
As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.
@@ -7691,23 +7748,6 @@ The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [giv
However, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability.
Positive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.
","[]",41,,3
-"What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/","Metaculus","Context
-=======
-
-[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
-Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
-Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
-Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
-What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?
-Related questions:
-[Total Retail Sales November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5016/total-retail-sales-in-november-2020/)
-[Total Retail Sales December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5017/total-retail-sales-in-december-2020/)
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",126,,3
"If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/","Metaculus","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)
Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders.
@@ -7763,7 +7803,7 @@ Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who
This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.
If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.
2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",556,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",565,,3
"Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).
In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.
Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:
@@ -7822,6 +7862,13 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019
---7,127 for the calendar year 2020
","[]",98,,3
+"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty.
+On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
+How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
+This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757
+If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
+This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
+","[]",30,,3
"What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/","Metaculus","Background
==========
@@ -7833,14 +7880,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as ""Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019."" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.
-","[]",23,,3
-"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty.
-On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
-How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
-This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757
-If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
-This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
-","[]",30,,3
+","[]",24,,3
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -8026,7 +8066,7 @@ In the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals,
Only evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution.
---
Meta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",454,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",457,,3
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/","Metaculus","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:
@@ -8325,7 +8365,7 @@ In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_
[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.
What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?
This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[]",126,,3
+","[]",127,,3
"A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/","Metaculus","Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.
What any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin.
Other types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.
@@ -8589,7 +8629,7 @@ As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency
If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.
Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?
This question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",279,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",280,,3
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
@@ -8815,16 +8855,6 @@ All of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October
When will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip?
For positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the ""passenger seat"" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) ""Coast-to-coast"" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)
","[]",348,,3
-"When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
-Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
-(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
-If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
-More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
-Related questions:
----[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
----[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
-[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
-","[]",162,,3
"Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/","Metaculus","If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [""Death to Pennies""](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?
After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency.
You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.
@@ -8836,6 +8866,16 @@ Many people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi
Although it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.
At some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",372,,3
+"When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
+Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
+(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
+If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
+More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
+Related questions:
+---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
+---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
+[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
+","[]",163,,3
"If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/","Metaculus","In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes
A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.
This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.
@@ -8948,7 +8988,7 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&
Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)
Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?
This question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",254,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",255,,3
"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus","In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T).
Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.
In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).
@@ -9183,7 +9223,7 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur
10-
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",200,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",201,,3
"What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/","Metaculus","[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)
The JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers.
The index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.
@@ -9404,13 +9444,6 @@ The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/
Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",247,,3
-"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
-There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
-In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).
-In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?
-Resolution
-For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.
-","[]",187,,3
"Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus","Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.
To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:
Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?
@@ -9549,7 +9582,7 @@ This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the
The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX ""gets lucky and things go according to plan"", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence.
There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5091,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5093,,3
"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/","Metaculus","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
@@ -9967,7 +10000,7 @@ Resolution Criteria
===================
Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-","[]",49,,3
+","[]",52,,3
"When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/","Metaculus","The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on ""growing teeth"" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:
Growing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.
The following timeline is included in the article:
@@ -9992,7 +10025,7 @@ This question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the ev
This question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.
For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.
The question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",188,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",190,,3
"After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/","Metaculus","Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),
@@ -10050,7 +10083,7 @@ The normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets do
"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/","Metaculus","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.
[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?
If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"".
-","[]",98,,3
+","[]",99,,3
"Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/","Metaculus","[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.
Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
@@ -10092,11 +10125,6 @@ Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death.
Began caloric restriction after the age of 50.
Of the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?
","[]",73,,3
-"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/","Metaculus","U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.
-Will an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?
-Will a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?
-Resolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is ""in large part"" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,,3
"Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/","Metaculus","Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).
If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",77,,3
@@ -10221,14 +10249,6 @@ This question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be
This question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.
If no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.
","[]",140,,3
-"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
-He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)
-However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election
-Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?
-Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).
-Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
-Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,,3
"How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/","Metaculus","The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.
How many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?
For reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.
@@ -10753,11 +10773,6 @@ But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer sp
When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?
Will resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.
","[]",119,,3
-"Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/","Metaculus","In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013):
-A small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.
-It's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.
-Before 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,,3
"What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/","Metaculus","Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger.
[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo.
What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?
@@ -10862,7 +10877,7 @@ Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?
This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.
This question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.
UTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",118,,3
"When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/","Metaculus","In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.
His statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that ""It's always 'the end of the year.'""
The company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the ""feather"" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.
@@ -11029,9 +11044,6 @@ If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from ""typical person"" to ""some identified and significant population of people.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,,3
-"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.
-This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",230,,3
"Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/","Metaculus","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth.
Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html):
Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa.
@@ -11046,6 +11058,9 @@ Ahh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with th
Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive?
The positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",226,,3
+"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.
+This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,,3
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/","Metaculus","The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).
The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.
How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?
@@ -11396,10 +11411,6 @@ Also there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside o
We may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
","[]",233,,3
-"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.
-The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
-For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
-","[]",202,,3
"When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/","Metaculus","California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations.
These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits.
There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.
@@ -11409,6 +11420,10 @@ When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets ava
Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.
If these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.
","[]",25,,3
+"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.
+The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
+For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
+","[]",203,,3
"When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/","Metaculus","Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.
Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).
When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?
@@ -11653,16 +11668,6 @@ The question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?
For the purposes of this question, ""communist state"" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.
This question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.
","[]",139,,3
-"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/","Metaculus","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:
-Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4]
-However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?
----
-Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.
----
-If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively
----
-If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",135,,3
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.
What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?
@@ -11672,6 +11677,16 @@ Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
","[]",161,,3
+"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/","Metaculus","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:
+Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4]
+However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?
+---
+Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.
+---
+If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively
+---
+If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",136,,3
"If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/","Metaculus","The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.
Given that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?
Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
@@ -11701,7 +11716,7 @@ To gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of ""Ems"
Will the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains?
Resolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.
(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",425,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",427,,3
"What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","Context
=======
@@ -11746,7 +11761,7 @@ Similar questions:
---The client must pay for the trip.
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff.
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.
-","[]",106,,3
+","[]",108,,3
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/","Metaculus","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -11834,24 +11849,6 @@ Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nucl
How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
Resolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.
","[]",47,,3
-"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),
-The human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.
-To count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19.
----
-This question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.
----
-Resolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened.
-The first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:
----
-Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.
----
-Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.
----
-No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV
----
-The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
-If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.
-","[]",56,,3
"What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),
The marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.
The best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.
@@ -11867,7 +11864,7 @@ When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth fo
---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet.
---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion.
---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control.
-","[]",171,,3
+","[]",176,,3
"Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?
The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union.
Resolution details:
@@ -11877,7 +11874,7 @@ The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative cha
---
Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession
------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",95,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",96,,3
"What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus","The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.
In March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).
What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
@@ -12033,7 +12030,7 @@ This question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds
For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).
Previously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:
This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",433,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",434,,3
"Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/","Metaculus","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.
We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.
Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
@@ -12122,7 +12119,7 @@ MNIST: 10
Hence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.
The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.
Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported.
-","[]",23,,3
+","[]",24,,3
"By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/","Metaculus","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),
Caenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal ""wiring diagram"") completed.
In 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to ""build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.""
@@ -12462,6 +12459,10 @@ Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scien
What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?
Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",366,,3
+"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.
+Will the Open Courts Act become law?
+This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",68,,3
"What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/","Metaculus","The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), ""the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,"" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is ""an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).""
While the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.
What will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?
@@ -12485,10 +12486,6 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.
","[]",227,,3
-"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.
-Will the Open Courts Act become law?
-This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",67,,3
"When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/","Metaculus","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.
When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?
Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.
@@ -12679,14 +12676,6 @@ The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)
","[]",102,,3
-"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/","Metaculus","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
-Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.
-Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.
-In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
-This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
-This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup.
-In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.
-","[]",118,,3
"How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/","Metaculus","A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.
This could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:
What will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?
@@ -12704,6 +12693,14 @@ Resolution:
---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride.
---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00.
","[]",58,,3
+"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/","Metaculus","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
+Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.
+Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.
+In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
+This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
+This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup.
+In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.
+","[]",123,,3
"When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/","Metaculus","[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.
At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).
When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
@@ -13074,7 +13071,7 @@ For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fissio
For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).
The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.
Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"".
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",273,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",275,,3
"When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.
A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)
There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.
@@ -13569,17 +13566,6 @@ The following situations do not qualify as expropriation:
[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.
[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,,3
-"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
-On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
-The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
-How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
-In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
-By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?
-The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.
-Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
----[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
----[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
-","[]",190,,3
"When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.
This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.
@@ -13606,6 +13592,17 @@ If does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it'
Resolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).
By average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.
","[]",188,,3
+"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
+On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
+The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
+How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
+In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
+By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?
+The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.
+Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
+---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
+---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
+","[]",196,,3
"How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus","Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.
China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.
However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years.
@@ -14031,7 +14028,7 @@ When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
This question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.
If the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","[]",162,,3
+","[]",163,,3
"When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/","Metaculus","Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.
When completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to ""study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.""
Per [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),
diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json
index 523a4c4..290e19a 100644
--- a/data/metaculus-questions.json
+++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json
@@ -55,13 +55,39 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 44,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -85,32 +111,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
@@ -141,6 +141,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
@@ -148,17 +163,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
+ "numforecasts": 103,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
@@ -208,21 +223,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
@@ -249,13 +249,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -264,6 +279,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
@@ -281,7 +311,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasts": 82,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -291,70 +321,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
+ "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
+ "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
"numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -372,32 +350,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
@@ -413,13 +365,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z",
@@ -428,6 +395,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
@@ -445,7 +427,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
+ "numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
@@ -455,33 +437,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
+ "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
+ "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 241,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -511,18 +504,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
+ "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
+ "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -541,18 +549,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 1128,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -611,47 +630,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
@@ -723,32 +701,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
@@ -775,6 +727,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
@@ -807,7 +785,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 99,
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -817,33 +795,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -872,6 +835,222 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 193,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 125,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 134,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
@@ -888,18 +1067,55 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -928,21 +1144,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
@@ -973,99 +1174,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
@@ -1081,13 +1189,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasts": 80,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
@@ -1096,6 +1219,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -1122,47 +1260,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
@@ -1184,7 +1281,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -1220,18 +1317,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
+ "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1260,21 +1409,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
@@ -1290,6 +1424,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
@@ -1383,13 +1558,43 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 146,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 518,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
+ "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1429,29 +1634,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
+ "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 298,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
+ "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1501,7 +1721,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
+ "numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1525,6 +1745,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
@@ -1551,32 +1786,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
@@ -1620,7 +1829,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
+ "numforecasts": 71,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -1629,6 +1838,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
@@ -1646,7 +1881,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
@@ -1708,44 +1943,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+ "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1763,21 +1983,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
@@ -1819,6 +2024,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
@@ -1834,6 +2054,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
@@ -1861,59 +2111,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
+ "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
+ "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1933,7 +2142,7 @@
}
],
"description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1942,6 +2151,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
@@ -1968,6 +2192,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 233,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 479,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
@@ -1983,6 +2248,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
@@ -2028,6 +2334,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
@@ -2069,13 +2416,65 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 29,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 519,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
@@ -2101,7 +2500,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
+ "numforecasts": 298,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
@@ -2111,33 +2510,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 337,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 247,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
+ "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 294,
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2155,6 +2565,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 294,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
@@ -2176,7 +2601,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
@@ -2211,6 +2636,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
@@ -2253,18 +2693,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 281,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2283,18 +2734,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
+ "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
+ "numforecasts": 151,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2312,21 +2763,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
@@ -2342,6 +2778,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 152,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
@@ -2384,18 +2835,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
+ "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2439,32 +2901,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
@@ -2537,18 +2973,55 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
+ "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 172,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2603,6 +3076,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 193,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 501,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/",
@@ -2629,13 +3143,43 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-01T23:13:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 53,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
@@ -2659,6 +3203,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
@@ -2689,36 +3248,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 518,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
@@ -2734,13 +3263,43 @@
"resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
@@ -2749,6 +3308,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
@@ -2791,29 +3376,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2831,13 +3416,39 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.43,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
+ "numforecasts": 568,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -2846,6 +3457,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
@@ -2898,6 +3535,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.68,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
@@ -2913,28 +3576,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasts": 39,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
@@ -2944,44 +3592,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
+ "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2999,13 +3621,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -3040,6 +3677,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
@@ -3070,32 +3733,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
@@ -3126,21 +3763,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
@@ -3182,6 +3804,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
@@ -3208,58 +3856,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "World Population in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
@@ -3301,6 +3897,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 198,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
@@ -3308,17 +3930,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
+ "numforecasts": 168,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
@@ -3327,21 +3949,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
@@ -3368,6 +3975,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 213,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 461,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
@@ -3394,6 +4057,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 338,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
@@ -3409,32 +4087,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
@@ -3476,6 +4128,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
@@ -3491,21 +4173,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
@@ -3547,6 +4214,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
@@ -3573,32 +4255,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
@@ -3614,6 +4270,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
@@ -3640,21 +4311,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
@@ -3717,7 +4373,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
@@ -3727,18 +4383,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
+ "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3834,21 +4501,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
@@ -3890,6 +4542,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 39,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
@@ -3907,7 +4585,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1143,
+ "numforecasts": 1144,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
@@ -3984,29 +4662,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
+ "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4084,21 +4751,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "numforecasts": 479,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
@@ -4106,17 +4758,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 588,
+ "numforecasts": 589,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
@@ -4156,29 +4808,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
+ "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 207,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4196,36 +4837,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
@@ -4292,7 +4903,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
@@ -4301,32 +4912,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
@@ -4342,32 +4927,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
@@ -4383,21 +4942,6 @@
"resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
@@ -4428,32 +4972,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
@@ -4592,6 +5110,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 446,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
@@ -4618,65 +5162,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 519,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 445,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -4711,32 +5203,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
@@ -4815,21 +5281,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -4918,7 +5369,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 778,
+ "numforecasts": 780,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
@@ -4927,47 +5378,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-05-24T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
@@ -4994,6 +5404,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&loctype=1&job=39&jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
@@ -5015,7 +5451,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -5106,47 +5542,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
@@ -5163,29 +5558,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
+ "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "numforecasts": 281,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 225,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5229,21 +5613,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
@@ -5347,7 +5716,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
@@ -5403,7 +5772,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 508,
+ "numforecasts": 510,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -5412,32 +5781,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
@@ -5464,6 +5807,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 575,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
@@ -5531,47 +5900,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
@@ -5614,44 +5942,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
+ "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
+ "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5680,32 +5993,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
@@ -5805,7 +6092,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
+ "numforecasts": 62,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -5840,6 +6127,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
@@ -5855,21 +6157,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
@@ -5958,7 +6245,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -6029,7 +6316,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
+ "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
@@ -6165,6 +6452,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
@@ -6206,21 +6508,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
@@ -6251,62 +6538,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
- "numforecasts": 501,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
@@ -6322,32 +6553,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will PHP die?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
@@ -6393,21 +6598,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
@@ -6451,7 +6641,7 @@
}
],
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -6460,21 +6650,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
@@ -6537,7 +6712,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 88,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
@@ -6617,21 +6792,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
@@ -6675,7 +6835,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "numforecasts": 589,
+ "numforecasts": 609,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6757,7 +6917,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
- "numforecasts": 357,
+ "numforecasts": 358,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
@@ -6807,32 +6967,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
@@ -6885,6 +7019,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
@@ -6915,21 +7075,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/",
@@ -6977,7 +7122,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6992,7 +7137,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -7018,7 +7163,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
+ "numforecasts": 299,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -7042,32 +7187,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 458,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
@@ -7089,7 +7208,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
+ "numforecasts": 204,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7098,39 +7217,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7139,6 +7232,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
@@ -7180,32 +7299,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
@@ -7233,29 +7326,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
+ "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1114,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 246,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7264,7 +7357,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
+ "numforecasts": 211,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7273,21 +7366,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 402,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
@@ -7361,7 +7439,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2693,
+ "numforecasts": 2710,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
@@ -7402,7 +7480,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "numforecasts": 554,
+ "numforecasts": 556,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
@@ -7417,7 +7495,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -7473,7 +7551,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
+ "numforecasts": 171,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
@@ -7497,32 +7575,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
@@ -7549,36 +7601,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
@@ -7605,6 +7627,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
@@ -7637,7 +7674,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
+ "numforecasts": 78,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
@@ -7713,6 +7750,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
@@ -7728,21 +7780,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
@@ -7750,17 +7787,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 503,
+ "numforecasts": 539,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
@@ -7786,7 +7823,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1316,
+ "numforecasts": 1319,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
@@ -7812,7 +7849,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
+ "numforecasts": 210,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
@@ -7821,21 +7858,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
@@ -7862,13 +7884,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 307,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 324,
+ "numforecasts": 327,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7892,21 +7929,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
@@ -7933,32 +7955,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 561,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Russia become a democracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/",
@@ -7989,32 +7985,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
@@ -8099,7 +8069,7 @@
}
],
"description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
- "numforecasts": 487,
+ "numforecasts": 490,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
@@ -8108,6 +8078,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
@@ -8175,6 +8160,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 423,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
@@ -8190,6 +8231,51 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
@@ -8235,6 +8321,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -8291,6 +8392,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-06T18:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
@@ -8321,6 +8448,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 195,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 180,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
@@ -8338,7 +8517,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
+ "numforecasts": 43,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8435,7 +8614,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "numforecasts": 152,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8491,7 +8670,7 @@
}
],
"description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 355,
+ "numforecasts": 356,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8536,7 +8715,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
+ "numforecasts": 48,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8545,21 +8724,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
@@ -8592,7 +8756,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1065,
+ "numforecasts": 1066,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
@@ -8864,7 +9028,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 711,
+ "numforecasts": 714,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
@@ -9004,21 +9168,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
@@ -9036,7 +9185,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
+ "numforecasts": 140,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -9045,6 +9194,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/",
@@ -9152,7 +9316,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
+ "numforecasts": 68,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9197,7 +9361,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "numforecasts": 54,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9238,7 +9402,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -9254,17 +9418,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 285,
+ "numforecasts": 287,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
@@ -9273,21 +9437,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
@@ -9314,6 +9463,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
@@ -9344,21 +9508,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
@@ -9376,7 +9525,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 683,
+ "numforecasts": 681,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9385,6 +9534,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/",
@@ -9406,7 +9570,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 431,
+ "numforecasts": 435,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
@@ -9783,7 +9947,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -10033,7 +10197,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 176,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -10113,21 +10277,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
- "numforecasts": 437,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
@@ -10154,6 +10303,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 440,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
@@ -10171,7 +10335,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 289,
+ "numforecasts": 291,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -10298,7 +10462,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
+ "numforecasts": 213,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
@@ -10400,17 +10564,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z",
@@ -10486,21 +10650,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
@@ -10518,7 +10667,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 381,
+ "numforecasts": 382,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
@@ -10548,7 +10697,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 681,
+ "numforecasts": 682,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
@@ -10967,12 +11116,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -10993,17 +11142,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
+ "numforecasts": 217,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11115,7 +11264,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "numforecasts": 360,
+ "numforecasts": 361,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -11182,7 +11331,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 113,
+ "numforecasts": 114,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -11288,21 +11437,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
@@ -11402,7 +11536,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11601,13 +11735,39 @@
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 192,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
+ "numforecasts": 225,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -11633,7 +11793,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 461,
+ "numforecasts": 463,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -11642,32 +11802,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
@@ -11700,7 +11834,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -11742,17 +11876,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
+ "numforecasts": 227,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
@@ -11839,17 +11973,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11880,17 +12014,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "numforecasts": 106,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z",
@@ -11998,7 +12132,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 139,
+ "numforecasts": 147,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -12620,7 +12754,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 464,
+ "numforecasts": 465,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
@@ -12795,7 +12929,7 @@
}
],
"description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
+ "numforecasts": 78,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -12840,7 +12974,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
+ "numforecasts": 173,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -12870,7 +13004,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -13079,7 +13213,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
+ "numforecasts": 224,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
@@ -13334,6 +13468,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
@@ -13341,17 +13490,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
+ "numforecasts": 201,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
@@ -13552,7 +13701,7 @@
}
],
"description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
+ "numforecasts": 91,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
@@ -13587,32 +13736,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 622,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/",
@@ -13639,6 +13762,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 623,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
@@ -13781,21 +13930,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
@@ -13813,7 +13947,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 55,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
@@ -13822,6 +13956,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 175,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
@@ -13940,7 +14089,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
+ "numforecasts": 204,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z",
@@ -14109,17 +14258,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 584,
+ "numforecasts": 592,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
@@ -14216,7 +14365,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -14272,7 +14421,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z",
@@ -15346,7 +15495,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
+ "numforecasts": 242,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15799,21 +15948,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5016/total-retail-sales-in-november-2020/)\n[Total Retail Sales December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5017/total-retail-sales-in-december-2020/)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T14:11:08Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
@@ -15924,7 +16058,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "numforecasts": 556,
+ "numforecasts": 565,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
@@ -16026,21 +16160,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
@@ -16056,6 +16175,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
@@ -16368,7 +16502,7 @@
}
],
"description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n",
- "numforecasts": 454,
+ "numforecasts": 457,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z",
@@ -16820,7 +16954,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
@@ -17346,7 +17480,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
+ "numforecasts": 280,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
@@ -17765,21 +17899,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
@@ -17806,6 +17925,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
@@ -18032,7 +18166,7 @@
}
],
"description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
+ "numforecasts": 255,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -18420,7 +18554,7 @@
}
],
"description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
+ "numforecasts": 201,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
@@ -18899,21 +19033,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
@@ -19293,7 +19412,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5091,
+ "numforecasts": 5093,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
@@ -20069,7 +20188,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -20100,17 +20219,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
+ "numforecasts": 190,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
@@ -20170,7 +20289,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
+ "numforecasts": 99,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
@@ -20287,32 +20406,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
@@ -20608,32 +20701,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
@@ -21767,32 +21834,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
@@ -21937,7 +21978,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
+ "numforecasts": 118,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
@@ -22293,32 +22334,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
@@ -22345,6 +22360,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 233,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
@@ -22998,21 +23039,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
@@ -23028,6 +23054,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 203,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
@@ -23513,6 +23554,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
@@ -23530,7 +23586,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -23539,21 +23595,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
@@ -23642,7 +23683,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 425,
+ "numforecasts": 427,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
@@ -23672,7 +23713,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
+ "numforecasts": 108,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
@@ -23849,21 +23890,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
@@ -23885,7 +23911,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
+ "numforecasts": 176,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -23911,7 +23937,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
+ "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
@@ -24243,7 +24269,7 @@
}
],
"description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
- "numforecasts": 433,
+ "numforecasts": 434,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
@@ -24392,7 +24418,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
@@ -25140,6 +25166,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 68,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
@@ -25170,32 +25222,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
@@ -25506,21 +25532,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
@@ -25536,6 +25547,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
@@ -26105,7 +26131,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 273,
+ "numforecasts": 275,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
@@ -27217,21 +27243,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
@@ -27277,6 +27288,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
@@ -28070,7 +28096,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
+ "numforecasts": 163,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json
index dc1e555..0d9dda6 100644
--- a/data/metaforecasts.json
+++ b/data/metaforecasts.json
@@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0475,
+ "probability": 0.0433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.115,
+ "probability": 0.11220000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.33380000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.3189,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2263,
+ "probability": 0.2256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2775,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "8",
- "numforecasters": "8",
+ "numforecasts": "10",
+ "numforecasters": "9",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500"
},
@@ -44,32 +44,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.0333,
+ "probability": 0.1333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.3333,
+ "probability": 0.3211,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.2267,
+ "probability": 0.1989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.23670000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.1233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "3",
- "numforecasters": "3",
+ "numforecasts": "9",
+ "numforecasters": "9",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000"
},
@@ -81,32 +81,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.0333,
+ "probability": 0.0313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1567,
+ "probability": 0.145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.465,
+ "probability": 0.4987,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.31670000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.2987,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.028300000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.0263,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "6",
- "numforecasters": "6",
+ "numforecasts": "9",
+ "numforecasters": "8",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion"
},
@@ -118,32 +118,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
- "probability": 0.14800000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28800000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.2929,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.39799999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.35710000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.0771,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
- "probability": 0.055999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.0429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "5",
- "numforecasters": "5",
+ "numforecasts": "8",
+ "numforecasters": "7",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%"
},
@@ -155,31 +155,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.0394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1125,
+ "probability": 0.1042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.21969999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.3431,
+ "probability": 0.3531,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.2747,
+ "probability": 0.2825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "54",
"numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion"
@@ -223,8 +223,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "120",
+ "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasters": "122",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -347,32 +347,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.053200000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.053399999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21309999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.1985,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.3461,
+ "probability": 0.3546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.2373,
+ "probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.1503,
+ "probability": 0.1512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "97",
+ "numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million"
},
@@ -421,31 +421,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.0426,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0885,
+ "probability": 0.0819,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.2148,
+ "probability": 0.2041,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.35259999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.3615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3015,
+ "probability": 0.3126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "45",
+ "numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000"
@@ -458,12 +458,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.1276,
+ "probability": 0.1291,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
- "probability": 0.4341,
+ "probability": 0.4371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -473,16 +473,16 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.1085,
+ "probability": 0.1063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.0301,
+ "probability": 0.0279,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "125",
+ "numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000"
@@ -640,26 +640,26 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.038,
+ "probability": 0.0379,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.10779999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.24239999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6118,
+ "probability": 0.6144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "202",
+ "numforecasts": "203",
"numforecasters": "127",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021"
@@ -709,31 +709,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
- "probability": 0.063,
+ "probability": 0.0629,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1637,
+ "probability": 0.16829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
- "probability": 0.3233,
+ "probability": 0.3226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
- "probability": 0.295,
+ "probability": 0.2919,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
- "probability": 0.155,
+ "probability": 0.15439999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "101",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%"
@@ -768,32 +768,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
- "probability": 0.0676,
+ "probability": 0.0665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1405,
+ "probability": 0.13470000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
- "probability": 0.2122,
+ "probability": 0.21170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
- "probability": 0.2672,
+ "probability": 0.2741,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
- "probability": 0.3125,
+ "probability": 0.313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "188",
- "numforecasters": "135",
+ "numforecasts": "191",
+ "numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%"
},
@@ -805,32 +805,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
- "probability": 0.44520000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.45189999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2731,
+ "probability": 0.27399999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
- "probability": 0.1523,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
- "probability": 0.0867,
+ "probability": 0.0825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
- "probability": 0.042699999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.0417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "69",
+ "numforecasts": "117",
+ "numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900"
},
@@ -7995,6 +7995,4560 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abbv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abmd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Accenture (ACN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/acn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/atvi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adbe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AES Corp (AES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aes",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aflac (AFL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/afl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/a",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/akam",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/are",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alxn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/algn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/alle",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/all",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/googl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/goog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amzn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amcr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aee",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aep",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Express (AXP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/axp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American International Group (AIG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aig",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/awk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/abc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ametek (AME)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ame",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amgn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Analog Devices (ADI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"ANSYS (ANSS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anss",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/antm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aon plc (AON)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aon",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/apa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aapl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/amat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aptv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/anet",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ajg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/aiz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/t",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ato",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adsk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/adp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/azo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bll",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bax",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bdx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/brk.b",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bby",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bio",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/biib",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/blk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ba",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkng",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bwa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bxp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bsx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bmy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/avgo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/br",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/bf.b",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chrw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdns",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cpb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cof",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cah",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ccl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/carr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctlt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cboe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cbre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CDW (CDW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Celanese (CE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ce",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cerner (CERN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cern",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/schw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/chd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cigna (CI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cinf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctas",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/c",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cfg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctxs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/clx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cme",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cms",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ko",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctsh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cma",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cag",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cop",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ed",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/coo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cprt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/glw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctva",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cost",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/csx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dri",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dva",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/de",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xray",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dvn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxcm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fang",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dlr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dfs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disca",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/disck",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dish",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dollar General (DG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dltr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/d",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dpz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dov",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dow",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dte",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/duk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ebay",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ecl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eix",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ew",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ea",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/emr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/enph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eog",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/efx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqix",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Essex Property Trust (ESS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ess",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/el",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/etsy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/evrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/es",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/re",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/expd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/exr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xom",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ffiv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Facebook (FB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fast",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fdx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fitb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/frc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fisv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/flir",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fls",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/f",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fbhs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/foxa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fox",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ben",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/fcx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gps",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/grmn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/it",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Electric (GE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ge",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Mills (GIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for General Motors (GM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gild",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/gww",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hal",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hbi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hig",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/has",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hca",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peak",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsic",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hes",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hlt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/holx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Home Depot (HD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hon",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hrl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hwm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hum",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hban",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/hii",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iex",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/idxx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/info",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/itw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ilmn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Incyte (INCY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/incy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ir",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ice",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ibm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Paper (IP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ip",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iff",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/intu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/isrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ivz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipgp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/iqv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/irm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jkhy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/j",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jbht",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sjm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnj",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jpm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnpr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ksu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/k",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/key",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/keys",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kim",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/klac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/khc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/kr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lhx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lrcx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lvs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/leg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ldos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/len",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lly",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lin",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lkq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lmt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/l",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/low",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lumn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mro",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mktx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mar",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mlm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mas",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ma",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mkc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mxim",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mcd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mck",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mrk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/met",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mgm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mchp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msft",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/maa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mhk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdlz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpwr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mnst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ms",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/mos",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/msci",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Nasdaq (NDAQ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ndaq",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntap",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nflx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nem",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwsa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nws",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nee",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Nike (NKE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nke",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ni",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nsc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntrs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/noc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlok",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nclh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nov",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nrg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nue",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvda",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"NVR (NVR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orly",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oxy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/odfl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/omc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Oneok (OKE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/oke",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/orcl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/otis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pcar",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pkg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ph",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/payc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pypl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pbct",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pep",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pki",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/prgo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfe",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pxd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pool",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pgr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Prologis (PLD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pld",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pru",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/peg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/psa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/phm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pvh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qrvo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/pwr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/qcom",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dgx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rjf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rtx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/o",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/reg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/regn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rsg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ResMed (RMD)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rmd",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rhi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rok",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Rollins (ROL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rol",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rop",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rost",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/rcl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spgi",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/crm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/see",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sre",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/now",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/shw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/spg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swks",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/slg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sna",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Southern Company (SO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/so",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/luv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/swk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbux",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/stt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Steris (STE)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ste",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/sivb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syf",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/snps",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/syy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmus",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trow",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ttwo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Tapestry (TPR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tpr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tgt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tel",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Teradyne (TER)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ter",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Tesla (TSLA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsla",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/txt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tjx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsco",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdg",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trv",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/trmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"Twitter (TWTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/twtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tyl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"UDR (UDR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/udr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ulta",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/usb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uaa",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ua",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unp",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ual",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/ups",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for \"United Rentals (URI)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uri",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/uhs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/unm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vlo",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/var",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vz",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrtx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/viac",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtrs",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/v",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vontier (VNT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vnt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vno",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/vmc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wab",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Walmart (WMT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmt",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wba",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/dis",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wm",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wat",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wec",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wfc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/well",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wst",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wdc",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wu",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for WestRock (WRK)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrk",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wy",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/whr",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmb",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wltw",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/wynn",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xel",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xerox (XRX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xrx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xlnx",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/xyl",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/yum",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbra",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbh",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zion",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)",
+ "url": "https://www.estimize.com/zts",
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67",
@@ -12546,12 +17100,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12661,12 +17215,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12685,7 +17239,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12705,7 +17259,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -12725,12 +17279,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12765,12 +17319,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12795,12 +17349,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12825,22 +17379,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12885,17 +17439,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -12910,7 +17464,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12920,17 +17474,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -12970,7 +17524,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -12990,7 +17544,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -13005,17 +17559,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13027,6 +17581,142 @@
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Lower than 1.7%",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
+ "probability": 0.04,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Higher than 3.1%",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "5",
+ "numforecasters": "5",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "The Father",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
+ "probability": 1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mank",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Minari",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nomadland",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Promising Young Woman",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sound of Metal",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A tie or other outcome",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1",
+ "numforecasters": "1",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?",
+ "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing",
+ "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
+ "description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mank (David Fincher)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)",
+ "probability": 1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "A tie or other outcome",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1",
+ "numforecasters": "1",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
@@ -13035,17 +17725,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "47",
- "numforecasters": "37",
+ "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13053,7 +17743,7 @@
"title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\n",
+ "description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 14.5 million",
@@ -13062,27 +17752,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "67",
- "numforecasters": "57",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
+ "numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million"
},
@@ -13094,17 +17784,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13114,17 +17804,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "38",
- "numforecasters": "35",
+ "numforecasts": "45",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"
},
@@ -13145,8 +17835,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "40",
- "numforecasters": "36",
+ "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13205,7 +17895,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13215,12 +17905,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "67",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -13283,7 +17973,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "113",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more"
@@ -13296,22 +17986,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 15,000",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13345,8 +18035,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "numforecasters": "35",
+ "numforecasts": "86",
+ "numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more"
},
@@ -13368,17 +18058,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13407,8 +18097,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "210",
- "numforecasters": "74",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more"
},
@@ -13445,22 +18135,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13474,8 +18164,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "305",
- "numforecasters": "112",
+ "numforecasts": "332",
+ "numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000"
},
@@ -13492,22 +18182,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13536,8 +18226,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "186",
- "numforecasters": "62",
+ "numforecasts": "207",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more"
},
@@ -13558,8 +18248,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "123",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13585,8 +18275,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "70",
- "numforecasters": "39",
+ "numforecasts": "72",
+ "numforecasters": "40",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more"
},
@@ -13607,8 +18297,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "453",
- "numforecasters": "352",
+ "numforecasts": "459",
+ "numforecasters": "354",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13630,12 +18320,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13644,8 +18334,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "329",
- "numforecasters": "251",
+ "numforecasts": "333",
+ "numforecasters": "252",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18"
},
@@ -13657,17 +18347,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "344",
- "numforecasters": "304",
+ "numforecasts": "348",
+ "numforecasters": "307",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13688,8 +18378,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "202",
- "numforecasters": "177",
+ "numforecasts": "207",
+ "numforecasters": "179",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13706,17 +18396,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13725,8 +18415,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "238",
- "numforecasters": "178",
+ "numforecasts": "242",
+ "numforecasters": "180",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000"
},
@@ -13743,12 +18433,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13762,7 +18452,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00"
@@ -13775,12 +18465,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13790,7 +18480,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13799,8 +18489,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "146",
- "numforecasters": "88",
+ "numforecasts": "148",
+ "numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%"
},
@@ -13812,17 +18502,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.000",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -13836,8 +18526,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "109",
- "numforecasters": "48",
+ "numforecasts": "116",
+ "numforecasters": "49",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500"
},
@@ -13863,8 +18553,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No"
},
@@ -13890,8 +18580,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "447",
- "numforecasters": "314",
+ "numforecasts": "455",
+ "numforecasters": "318",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"
},
@@ -13903,16 +18593,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "69",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -13925,17 +18615,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "151",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "157",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13947,17 +18637,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "180",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "183",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14000,8 +18690,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "193",
- "numforecasters": "110",
+ "numforecasts": "206",
+ "numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14022,8 +18712,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "168",
- "numforecasters": "133",
+ "numforecasts": "173",
+ "numforecasters": "134",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14040,7 +18730,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14050,12 +18740,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "165",
- "numforecasters": "116",
+ "numforecasts": "168",
+ "numforecasters": "119",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -14067,17 +18757,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "150",
- "numforecasters": "82",
+ "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14094,7 +18784,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14109,7 +18799,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Another team",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14118,8 +18808,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
- "numforecasters": "51",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
+ "numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"
},
@@ -14131,16 +18821,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14162,8 +18852,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "112",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14184,8 +18874,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "262",
- "numforecasters": "108",
+ "numforecasts": "265",
+ "numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14216,8 +18906,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "234",
- "numforecasters": "139",
+ "numforecasts": "237",
+ "numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
},
@@ -14275,7 +18965,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "90",
+ "numforecasts": "92",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14293,17 +18983,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "83",
- "numforecasters": "61",
+ "numforecasts": "86",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
@@ -14324,8 +19014,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "196",
- "numforecasters": "84",
+ "numforecasts": "199",
+ "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14346,7 +19036,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "140",
+ "numforecasts": "141",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14359,17 +19049,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "238",
- "numforecasters": "140",
+ "numforecasts": "244",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14377,21 +19067,21 @@
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
- "numforecasters": "190",
+ "numforecasts": "359",
+ "numforecasters": "191",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14418,17 +19108,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "344",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "351",
+ "numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
},
@@ -14440,7 +19130,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "7 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14450,7 +19140,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 15 and 21",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14464,8 +19154,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "387",
- "numforecasters": "102",
+ "numforecasts": "405",
+ "numforecasters": "106",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more"
},
@@ -14486,8 +19176,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "152",
- "numforecasters": "112",
+ "numforecasts": "155",
+ "numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14508,7 +19198,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "246",
+ "numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14562,7 +19252,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "165",
+ "numforecasts": "167",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"
@@ -14602,12 +19292,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14616,7 +19306,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "171",
+ "numforecasts": "174",
"numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021"
@@ -14656,17 +19346,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14675,7 +19365,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion"
@@ -14697,7 +19387,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "159",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
"numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14710,7 +19400,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14720,12 +19410,12 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "112",
- "numforecasters": "65",
+ "numforecasts": "114",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No"
},
@@ -14746,8 +19436,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "260",
- "numforecasters": "134",
+ "numforecasts": "266",
+ "numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -14759,16 +19449,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "243",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14817,7 +19507,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "185",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
@@ -14844,7 +19534,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "205",
"numforecasters": "106",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
@@ -14853,16 +19543,16 @@
"title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
+ "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicaragua",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "St. Lucia",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14871,8 +19561,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "178",
- "numforecasters": "119",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasters": "121",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Nicaragua, St. Lucia, There will be a draw"
},
@@ -14889,12 +19579,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -14908,8 +19598,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "260",
- "numforecasters": "73",
+ "numforecasts": "263",
+ "numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000"
},
@@ -14930,7 +19620,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "216",
+ "numforecasts": "217",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -14957,8 +19647,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "327",
- "numforecasters": "141",
+ "numforecasts": "334",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"
},
@@ -15028,7 +19718,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "174",
+ "numforecasts": "176",
"numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15041,12 +19731,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -15055,7 +19745,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "454",
+ "numforecasts": "457",
"numforecasters": "194",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No"
@@ -15087,7 +19777,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "420",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
"numforecasters": "211",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No"
@@ -15131,7 +19821,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
+ "numforecasts": "356",
"numforecasters": "225",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15144,17 +19834,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "281",
- "numforecasters": "102",
+ "numforecasts": "282",
+ "numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15166,17 +19856,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "417",
- "numforecasters": "107",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
+ "numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15229,7 +19919,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "243",
+ "numforecasts": "247",
"numforecasters": "125",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15252,21 +19942,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "257",
+ "numforecasts": "258",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
@@ -15310,8 +20000,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "394",
- "numforecasters": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "396",
+ "numforecasters": "205",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15345,16 +20035,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15372,12 +20062,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -15391,7 +20081,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "249",
+ "numforecasts": "253",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50"
@@ -15423,7 +20113,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "128",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No"
@@ -15445,8 +20135,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "425",
- "numforecasters": "199",
+ "numforecasts": "430",
+ "numforecasters": "200",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15458,7 +20148,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -15478,7 +20168,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Another candidate",
- "probability": 0.68,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -15487,8 +20177,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "197",
- "numforecasters": "79",
+ "numforecasts": "200",
+ "numforecasters": "80",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"
},
@@ -15509,8 +20199,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "548",
- "numforecasters": "198",
+ "numforecasts": "558",
+ "numforecasters": "199",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15546,7 +20236,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "537",
+ "numforecasts": "540",
"numforecasters": "247",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%"
@@ -15583,8 +20273,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1678",
- "numforecasters": "581",
+ "numforecasts": "1686",
+ "numforecasters": "582",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more"
},
@@ -15615,7 +20305,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "508",
+ "numforecasts": "510",
"numforecasters": "215",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more"
@@ -15637,8 +20327,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "321",
- "numforecasters": "202",
+ "numforecasts": "327",
+ "numforecasters": "204",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15659,8 +20349,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "521",
- "numforecasters": "234",
+ "numforecasts": "529",
+ "numforecasters": "238",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15672,17 +20362,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "220",
- "numforecasters": "123",
+ "numforecasts": "224",
+ "numforecasters": "124",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -15703,7 +20393,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "317",
+ "numforecasts": "319",
"numforecasters": "185",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15725,7 +20415,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "310",
+ "numforecasts": "312",
"numforecasters": "165",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15762,38 +20452,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "293",
+ "numforecasts": "295",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
},
- {
- "title": "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Lower",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Same",
- "probability": 1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Higher",
- "probability": 0,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "199",
- "numforecasters": "115",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
- },
{
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority",
@@ -15833,7 +20496,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "317",
+ "numforecasts": "318",
"numforecasters": "168",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15855,7 +20518,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "269",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -15892,8 +20555,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1407",
- "numforecasters": "204",
+ "numforecasts": "1413",
+ "numforecasters": "206",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more"
},
@@ -15914,8 +20577,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "285",
- "numforecasters": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "286",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -16032,8 +20695,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "547",
- "numforecasters": "151",
+ "numforecasts": "548",
+ "numforecasters": "152",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
},
@@ -16054,7 +20717,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "729",
+ "numforecasts": "736",
"numforecasters": "156",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16072,12 +20735,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -16091,8 +20754,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "468",
- "numforecasters": "217",
+ "numforecasts": "473",
+ "numforecasters": "219",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%"
},
@@ -16114,7 +20777,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -16124,11 +20787,11 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.82,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "467",
+ "numforecasts": "475",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million"
@@ -16151,16 +20814,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "452",
+ "numforecasts": "457",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021"
@@ -16187,28 +20850,6 @@
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021",
- "platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "412",
- "numforecasters": "159",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from",
@@ -16251,7 +20892,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "342",
+ "numforecasts": "345",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"
@@ -16288,8 +20929,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "680",
- "numforecasters": "200",
+ "numforecasts": "686",
+ "numforecasters": "202",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021"
},
@@ -16310,8 +20951,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1144",
- "numforecasters": "453",
+ "numforecasts": "1152",
+ "numforecasters": "454",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -16332,7 +20973,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "385",
+ "numforecasts": "386",
"numforecasters": "160",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16354,7 +20995,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "329",
+ "numforecasts": "332",
"numforecasters": "153",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16376,7 +21017,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "711",
+ "numforecasts": "716",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16404,16 +21045,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "836",
+ "numforecasts": "839",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
@@ -16457,7 +21098,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "323",
+ "numforecasts": "324",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16470,16 +21111,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "630",
+ "numforecasts": "634",
"numforecasters": "184",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16516,7 +21157,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "470",
+ "numforecasts": "473",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more"
@@ -16539,17 +21180,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "271",
- "numforecasters": "55",
+ "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasters": "56",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021"
},
@@ -16585,7 +21226,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "369",
+ "numforecasts": "372",
"numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive, More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000, Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000"
@@ -16603,12 +21244,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -16617,7 +21258,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "295",
+ "numforecasts": "300",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No"
@@ -16630,22 +21271,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1 or 2",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or 4",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5 or 6",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -16654,8 +21295,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "275",
- "numforecasters": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "279",
+ "numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more"
},
@@ -16686,8 +21327,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "844",
- "numforecasters": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "852",
+ "numforecasters": "293",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
},
@@ -16695,7 +21336,7 @@
"title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -16708,7 +21349,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "293",
"numforecasters": "138",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16717,20 +21358,20 @@
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "638",
+ "numforecasts": "644",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16748,21 +21389,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, a paid backup driver",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "241",
+ "numforecasts": "244",
"numforecasters": "94",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No"
@@ -16785,7 +21426,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -16795,11 +21436,11 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4.0 million",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "253",
+ "numforecasts": "255",
"numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million"
@@ -16827,16 +21468,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6,500",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "234",
+ "numforecasts": "235",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500"
@@ -16845,7 +21486,7 @@
"title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d0b3bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbea390b7bfbfb4baa5b4b7bdb5bea4feb3bfbdefa3a5b2bab5b3a4ed81a5b5a3a4b9bfbef5e2e093bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 2.5 million",
@@ -16873,8 +21514,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1170",
- "numforecasters": "173",
+ "numforecasts": "1176",
+ "numforecasters": "176",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million"
},
@@ -16882,7 +21523,7 @@
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b9dad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7caf9ded6d6ddd3ccddded4dcd7cd97dad6d486caccdbd3dcdacd84e8ccdccacdd0d6d79c8b89fad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
@@ -16896,17 +21537,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1994",
- "numforecasters": "823",
+ "numforecasts": "2017",
+ "numforecasters": "828",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -16914,7 +21555,7 @@
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8aba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6bb88afa7a7aca2bdacafa5ada6bce6aba7a5f7bbbdaaa2adabbcf599bdadbbbca1a7a6edfaf88ba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -16927,7 +21568,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "241",
+ "numforecasts": "243",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -16936,7 +21577,7 @@
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -16949,8 +21590,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1065",
- "numforecasters": "462",
+ "numforecasts": "1072",
+ "numforecasters": "463",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -16986,7 +21627,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasts": "292",
"numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000"
@@ -17032,7 +21673,7 @@
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bdded1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3cefddad2d2d9d7c8d9dad0d8d3c993ded2d082cec8dfd7d8dec980ecc8d8cec9d4d2d3988f8dfed1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
@@ -17055,7 +21696,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "395",
+ "numforecasts": "396",
"numforecasters": "218",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
@@ -17077,7 +21718,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "189",
+ "numforecasts": "190",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -17114,7 +21755,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "282",
+ "numforecasts": "283",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $80 per kWh, Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive, More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh, Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive, More than $140 per kWh"
@@ -17151,7 +21792,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "427",
+ "numforecasts": "428",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%"
@@ -17195,7 +21836,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "302",
+ "numforecasts": "303",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -17207,12 +21848,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17287,57 +21928,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
+ "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.03883495145631068,
+ "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
+ "probability": 0.1372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5436893203883496,
+ "probability": 0.5490196078431372,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.04854368932038835,
+ "probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
+ "probability": 0.1568627450980392,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17352,22 +21993,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.6153846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.22115384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.04807692307692307,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17467,32 +22108,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.07766990291262137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.2621359223300971,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.36633663366336633,
+ "probability": 0.35922330097087385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.28712871287128716,
+ "probability": 0.2815533980582524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17602,12 +22243,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.1176470588235294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.8823529411764706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17732,27 +22373,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.339622641509434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571427,
+ "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.2476190476190476,
+ "probability": 0.2358490566037736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17767,17 +22408,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.7722772277227723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another Likud politician",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another politician not from Likud",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.20792079207920794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17792,17 +22433,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
- "probability": 0.2277227722772277,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
- "probability": 0.504950495049505,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17817,32 +22458,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
+ "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.6796116504854369,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.05825242718446602,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17857,27 +22498,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.26595744680851063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
+ "probability": 0.3191489361702128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.1238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.11702127659574468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095237,
+ "probability": 0.09574468085106382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.33333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.2021276595744681,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -17897,12 +22538,12 @@
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -17922,22 +22563,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.8118811881188118,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -19255,12 +23896,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen (Cons)",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.7936507936507936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.2063492063492063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -19939,38 +24580,38 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons)"
},
{
- "title": "Hartlepool By-election: To Win",
+ "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.5261973798876447,
+ "probability": 0.5007033585370143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.4334864129550597,
+ "probability": 0.45063302268331284,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.0045289625234110715,
+ "probability": 0.004483910673465799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.02677416080016545,
+ "probability": 0.026507824863724286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0.009013083833719062,
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
+ "probability": 0.017671883242482856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)"
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
@@ -20228,22 +24869,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.08506316571711667,
+ "probability": 0.11503967380380371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8506316571711666,
+ "probability": 0.8217119557414551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.009264305177111716,
+ "probability": 0.009112053370598314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.055040871934604906,
+ "probability": 0.054136317084142925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -20615,12 +25256,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.6076923076923076,
+ "probability": 0.5890052356020942,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
- "probability": 0.39230769230769225,
+ "probability": 0.4109947643979057,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -20668,32 +25309,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 40%",
- "probability": 0.04193230874539787,
+ "probability": 0.04190017710836724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-45%",
- "probability": 0.12579692623619362,
+ "probability": 0.14665061987928535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45-50%",
- "probability": 0.35223139346134213,
+ "probability": 0.35196148771028485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50-55%",
- "probability": 0.33609865788296,
+ "probability": 0.335841114227371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55-60%",
- "probability": 0.11007231045666942,
+ "probability": 0.09776707991952356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 60%",
- "probability": 0.03386840321743675,
+ "probability": 0.025879521155168003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -21685,13 +26326,40 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 44,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -21717,33 +26385,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
@@ -21776,6 +26417,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
@@ -21783,17 +26440,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
+ "numforecasts": 103,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
@@ -21846,22 +26503,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
@@ -21889,13 +26530,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -21905,6 +26562,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
@@ -21922,7 +26595,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasts": 82,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -21933,74 +26606,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
+ "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
+ "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
"numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
@@ -22018,33 +26637,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
@@ -22061,13 +26653,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z",
@@ -22077,6 +26685,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
@@ -22094,7 +26718,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
+ "numforecasts": 125,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
@@ -22105,34 +26729,45 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
+ "title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
+ "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 241,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -22164,18 +26799,34 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
+ "title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
+ "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 53,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -22196,20 +26847,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 1128,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
@@ -22270,49 +26932,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
@@ -22388,33 +27007,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
@@ -22442,6 +27034,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
@@ -22475,7 +27094,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 99,
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -22486,34 +27105,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -22544,6 +27147,232 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 193,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 125,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 134,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
@@ -22561,20 +27390,58 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
@@ -22603,22 +27470,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
@@ -22651,103 +27502,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
@@ -22764,13 +27518,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "numforecasts": 80,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
@@ -22780,6 +27550,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -22807,49 +27593,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
@@ -22872,7 +27615,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -22910,18 +27653,72 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
+ "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 64,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -22952,22 +27749,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
@@ -22984,6 +27765,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
@@ -23081,13 +27905,45 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 146,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 518,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
+ "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -23130,29 +27986,45 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/",
+ "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 298,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
+ "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -23205,7 +28077,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
+ "numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z",
@@ -23231,6 +28103,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
@@ -23258,33 +28146,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
@@ -23329,7 +28190,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [\"on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.\nPresident Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.\nWill sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine [allocation data](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) provided by the CDC and HHS. \nSpecifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution: \n1: total [Pfizer second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Pfizer-Allocations/sxbq-3sid) (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)\n2: total [Moderna second dose allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)\n3: total [Johnson & Johnson allocations](https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/National-Weekly-Moderna-Allocations/ke78-phpe) (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)\nSo as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021. \nAny other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.\nIf the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
+ "numforecasts": 71,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -23339,6 +28200,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
@@ -23356,7 +28244,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
@@ -23421,48 +28309,32 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+ "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
@@ -23479,22 +28351,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
@@ -23538,6 +28394,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
@@ -23554,6 +28426,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 230,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
@@ -23582,64 +28486,21 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
+ "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
+ "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
@@ -23657,7 +28518,7 @@
}
],
"description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -23667,6 +28528,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
@@ -23694,6 +28571,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 233,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 479,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
@@ -23710,6 +28630,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
@@ -23758,6 +28721,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
@@ -23801,13 +28807,67 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 29,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 519,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
@@ -23834,7 +28894,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
+ "numforecasts": 298,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
@@ -23845,34 +28905,45 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 337,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 247,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
+ "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 294,
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -23892,6 +28963,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 294,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
@@ -23914,7 +29001,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
@@ -23951,6 +29038,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
@@ -23995,20 +29098,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 281,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
@@ -24027,18 +29141,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
+ "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
+ "numforecasts": 151,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -24058,22 +29172,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
@@ -24090,6 +29188,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 152,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
@@ -24134,20 +29248,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
+ "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
@@ -24192,33 +29317,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
@@ -24295,20 +29393,58 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
+ "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 172,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
@@ -24364,6 +29500,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 193,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 501,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/",
@@ -24391,13 +29570,45 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 53,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
@@ -24423,6 +29634,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
@@ -24455,38 +29682,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 518,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
@@ -24503,13 +29698,45 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
@@ -24519,6 +29746,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
@@ -24563,29 +29817,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -24605,13 +29859,40 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.43,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
+ "numforecasts": 568,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -24621,6 +29902,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
@@ -24675,6 +29983,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.68,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
@@ -24691,29 +30026,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasts": 39,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
@@ -24724,45 +30043,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
+ "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
+ "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -24782,13 +30074,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -24825,6 +30133,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
@@ -24857,33 +30192,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
@@ -24916,22 +30224,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
@@ -24975,6 +30267,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
@@ -25002,60 +30321,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "World Population in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
@@ -25099,6 +30364,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 198,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
@@ -25106,17 +30398,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
+ "numforecasts": 168,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
@@ -25126,22 +30418,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 212,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
@@ -25169,6 +30445,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 213,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 461,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
@@ -25196,6 +30531,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 338,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
@@ -25212,33 +30563,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 172,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/",
@@ -25282,6 +30606,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
@@ -25298,22 +30654,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
@@ -25357,6 +30697,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
@@ -25384,33 +30740,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
@@ -25427,6 +30756,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
@@ -25454,22 +30799,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
@@ -25535,7 +30864,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
@@ -25546,20 +30875,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
+ "title": "In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6372/israeli-election-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
@@ -25658,22 +30998,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
@@ -25717,6 +31041,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 39,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
@@ -25734,7 +31085,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1143,
+ "numforecasts": 1144,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
@@ -25815,31 +31166,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
+ "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 233,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
@@ -25921,22 +31261,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
- "numforecasts": 479,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
@@ -25944,17 +31268,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
- "numforecasts": 588,
+ "numforecasts": 589,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
@@ -25997,31 +31321,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
+ "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 207,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
@@ -26039,38 +31352,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
@@ -26141,7 +31422,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
@@ -26151,33 +31432,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
@@ -26194,33 +31448,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
@@ -26237,22 +31464,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
@@ -26285,33 +31496,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
@@ -26457,6 +31641,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 446,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
@@ -26484,67 +31695,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 519,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 445,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -26581,33 +31738,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
@@ -26689,22 +31819,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -26797,7 +31911,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 778,
+ "numforecasts": 780,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
@@ -26807,6 +31921,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
@@ -26834,49 +31975,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
@@ -26899,7 +31997,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -26995,49 +32093,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
@@ -27055,31 +32110,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
+ "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
- "numforecasts": 281,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 225,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
@@ -27124,22 +32168,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
- "numforecasts": 152,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
@@ -27248,7 +32276,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
@@ -27307,7 +32335,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 508,
+ "numforecasts": 510,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -27317,33 +32345,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
@@ -27371,6 +32372,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 575,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
@@ -27441,49 +32469,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
@@ -27528,45 +32513,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
+ "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
+ "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -27597,33 +32566,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
@@ -27727,7 +32669,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
+ "numforecasts": 62,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -27764,6 +32706,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
@@ -27780,22 +32738,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
@@ -27888,7 +32830,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -27963,7 +32905,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
+ "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
@@ -28107,6 +33049,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
@@ -28150,22 +33108,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
@@ -28198,65 +33140,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by \\( \\frac{p}{1-p} \\) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.) \n",
- "numforecasts": 501,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
- "numforecasts": 104,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
@@ -28273,33 +33156,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will PHP die?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
@@ -28348,22 +33204,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
@@ -28408,7 +33248,7 @@
}
],
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -28418,22 +33258,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
@@ -28499,7 +33323,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 88,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
@@ -28584,22 +33408,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
@@ -28644,7 +33452,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "numforecasts": 589,
+ "numforecasts": 609,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -28730,7 +33538,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
- "numforecasts": 357,
+ "numforecasts": 358,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
@@ -28783,33 +33591,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
@@ -28864,6 +33645,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
@@ -28896,22 +33704,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/",
@@ -28961,7 +33753,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -28977,7 +33769,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -29004,7 +33796,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 297,
+ "numforecasts": 299,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -29030,33 +33822,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 458,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
@@ -29079,7 +33844,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
+ "numforecasts": 204,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29089,40 +33854,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29132,6 +33870,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
@@ -29175,33 +33940,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
@@ -29230,29 +33968,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
+ "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1114,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 246,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -29262,7 +34000,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
+ "numforecasts": 211,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29272,22 +34010,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 402,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
@@ -29364,7 +34086,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2693,
+ "numforecasts": 2710,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29407,7 +34129,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
- "numforecasts": 554,
+ "numforecasts": 556,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
@@ -29423,7 +34145,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -29482,7 +34204,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
+ "numforecasts": 171,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29508,33 +34230,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
@@ -29562,38 +34257,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
@@ -29621,6 +34284,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
@@ -29654,7 +34333,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
+ "numforecasts": 78,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29734,6 +34413,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
@@ -29750,22 +34445,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
@@ -29773,17 +34452,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 503,
+ "numforecasts": 539,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
@@ -29810,7 +34489,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1316,
+ "numforecasts": 1319,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
@@ -29837,7 +34516,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
+ "numforecasts": 210,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29847,22 +34526,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 272,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
@@ -29890,13 +34553,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 307,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 324,
+ "numforecasts": 327,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29922,22 +34601,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
@@ -29965,33 +34628,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 561,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will Russia become a democracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/",
@@ -30024,33 +34660,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
@@ -30138,7 +34747,7 @@
}
],
"description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
- "numforecasts": 487,
+ "numforecasts": 490,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
@@ -30148,6 +34757,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
@@ -30218,6 +34843,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 423,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
@@ -30234,6 +34918,54 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
@@ -30282,6 +35014,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -30341,6 +35089,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 28,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
@@ -30373,6 +35148,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 195,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-18T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T10:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 180,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
@@ -30390,7 +35219,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
+ "numforecasts": 43,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -30492,7 +35321,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "numforecasts": 152,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -30551,7 +35380,7 @@
}
],
"description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 355,
+ "numforecasts": 356,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
@@ -30599,7 +35428,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
+ "numforecasts": 48,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -30609,22 +35438,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
@@ -30658,7 +35471,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1065,
+ "numforecasts": 1066,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
@@ -30943,7 +35756,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 711,
+ "numforecasts": 714,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
@@ -31092,22 +35905,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
@@ -31125,7 +35922,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 138,
+ "numforecasts": 140,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -31135,6 +35932,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5672/how-will-donald-trump-rank-among-presidents/",
@@ -31248,7 +36061,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
+ "numforecasts": 68,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -31296,7 +36109,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 53,
+ "numforecasts": 54,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -31339,7 +36152,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -31356,17 +36169,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 285,
+ "numforecasts": 287,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
@@ -31376,22 +36189,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
@@ -31419,6 +36216,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
@@ -31451,22 +36264,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
@@ -31484,7 +36281,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 683,
+ "numforecasts": 681,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -31494,6 +36291,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/",
@@ -31516,7 +36329,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 431,
+ "numforecasts": 435,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
@@ -31913,7 +36726,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -32176,7 +36989,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 176,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -32261,22 +37074,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
- "numforecasts": 437,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
@@ -32304,6 +37101,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 440,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
@@ -32321,7 +37134,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n",
- "numforecasts": 289,
+ "numforecasts": 291,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -32455,7 +37268,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
+ "numforecasts": 213,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
@@ -32563,17 +37376,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z",
@@ -32653,22 +37466,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
@@ -32686,7 +37483,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 381,
+ "numforecasts": 382,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
@@ -32718,7 +37515,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 681,
+ "numforecasts": 682,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
@@ -33159,12 +37956,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -33186,17 +37983,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 205,
+ "numforecasts": 217,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
@@ -33314,7 +38111,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "numforecasts": 360,
+ "numforecasts": 361,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -33384,7 +38181,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 113,
+ "numforecasts": 114,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -33496,22 +38293,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
@@ -33615,7 +38396,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -33824,13 +38605,40 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 192,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
+ "numforecasts": 225,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -33857,7 +38665,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 461,
+ "numforecasts": 463,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -33867,33 +38675,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 192,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
@@ -33927,7 +38708,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
@@ -33971,17 +38752,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
+ "numforecasts": 227,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
@@ -34073,17 +38854,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 151,
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -34116,17 +38897,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "numforecasts": 106,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z",
@@ -34239,7 +39020,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 139,
+ "numforecasts": 147,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -34890,7 +39671,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\".\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 464,
+ "numforecasts": 465,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
@@ -35073,7 +39854,7 @@
}
],
"description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
+ "numforecasts": 78,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -35121,7 +39902,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
+ "numforecasts": 173,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -35153,7 +39934,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -35373,7 +40154,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
+ "numforecasts": 224,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
@@ -35641,6 +40422,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
@@ -35648,17 +40445,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
+ "numforecasts": 201,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
@@ -35868,7 +40665,7 @@
}
],
"description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
+ "numforecasts": 91,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
@@ -35905,33 +40702,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 622,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/",
@@ -35959,6 +40729,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 623,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
@@ -36109,22 +40906,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 175,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
@@ -36142,7 +40923,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 55,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
@@ -36152,6 +40933,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 175,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:57:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:11:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
@@ -36276,7 +41073,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
+ "numforecasts": 204,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z",
@@ -36454,17 +41251,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 584,
+ "numforecasts": 592,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
@@ -36566,7 +41363,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -36625,7 +41422,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
+ "numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z",
@@ -37753,7 +42550,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
+ "numforecasts": 242,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -38230,22 +43027,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales November 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5016/total-retail-sales-in-november-2020/)\n[Total Retail Sales December 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5017/total-retail-sales-in-december-2020/)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-26T14:11:08Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-26T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
@@ -38360,7 +43141,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "numforecasts": 556,
+ "numforecasts": 565,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
@@ -38467,22 +43248,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
@@ -38499,6 +43264,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
@@ -38827,7 +43608,7 @@
}
],
"description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on >50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n",
- "numforecasts": 454,
+ "numforecasts": 457,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z",
@@ -39304,7 +44085,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
@@ -39857,7 +44638,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
+ "numforecasts": 280,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
@@ -40297,22 +45078,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
@@ -40340,6 +45105,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
@@ -40577,7 +45358,7 @@
}
],
"description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
+ "numforecasts": 255,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -40985,7 +45766,7 @@
}
],
"description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
+ "numforecasts": 201,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
@@ -41489,22 +46270,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
@@ -41903,7 +46668,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5091,
+ "numforecasts": 5093,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
@@ -42719,7 +47484,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -42752,17 +47517,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
+ "numforecasts": 190,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
@@ -42826,7 +47591,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
+ "numforecasts": 99,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
@@ -42949,33 +47714,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
@@ -43287,33 +48025,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.68,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
@@ -44502,33 +49213,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
@@ -44680,7 +49364,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 116,
+ "numforecasts": 118,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
@@ -45055,33 +49739,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 230,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
@@ -45109,6 +49766,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 233,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
@@ -45796,22 +50480,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 202,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
@@ -45828,6 +50496,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 203,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
@@ -46338,6 +51022,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
@@ -46355,7 +51055,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -46365,22 +51065,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
@@ -46473,7 +51157,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 425,
+ "numforecasts": 427,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
@@ -46505,7 +51189,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
+ "numforecasts": 108,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
@@ -46692,22 +51376,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
@@ -46730,7 +51398,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
+ "numforecasts": 176,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -46757,7 +51425,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
+ "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
@@ -47106,7 +51774,7 @@
}
],
"description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
- "numforecasts": 433,
+ "numforecasts": 434,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
@@ -47262,7 +51930,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
@@ -48050,6 +52718,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 68,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
@@ -48082,33 +52777,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
@@ -48436,22 +53104,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
@@ -48468,6 +53120,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
@@ -49065,7 +53733,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 273,
+ "numforecasts": 275,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
@@ -50231,22 +54899,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
@@ -50295,6 +54947,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
@@ -51128,7 +55796,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
+ "numforecasts": 163,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
@@ -51187,44 +55855,65 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",
+ "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04370182432456576988928154888546837",
+ "probability": "0.2786055887630196690122933578202847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9562981756754342301107184511145316",
+ "probability": "0.7213944112369803309877066421797153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "stars": 3,
+ "numforecasts": "19",
+ "stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
+ "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
+ "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Bezos",
+ "probability": "0.7567612226678442802779601760633623",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Musk",
+ "probability": "0.2432387773321557197220398239366377",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "111",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1934946039826556687210229849332036",
+ "probability": "0.5343306424605916138160044415594014",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8065053960173443312789770150667964",
+ "probability": "0.4656693575394083861839955584405986",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "109",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -51236,51 +55925,122 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.93969077074312079300852328223358",
+ "probability": "0.9382535450938875672215375026234161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.06030922925687920699147671776642001",
+ "probability": "0.06174645490611243277846249737658387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1245",
+ "numforecasts": "1294",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "outcomes": [
- "Yes",
- "No"
- ],
- "options": [],
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
+ "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
+ "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.6706007725723407971118622145171625",
+ "name": "Less than 80",
+ "probability": "0.1896658123630845294321136468815691",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.3293992274276592028881377854828375",
+ "name": "80-95",
+ "probability": "0.2548856753523841491528462046351393",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "96-110",
+ "probability": "0.2141893378681457564905702188353323",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "111-125",
+ "probability": "0.1688476774839751329216091564165022",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "126-140",
+ "probability": "0.1072364692081966116976011485417401",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "More than 140",
+ "probability": "0.06517502772421382030525962468971683",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "94",
+ "numforecasts": "242",
"stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 80, 80-95, 96-110, 111-125, 126-140, More than 140"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.8983913045560304941792165871351091",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.1016086954439695058207834128648909",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "747",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.6403626165067824122242711565972061",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.3596373834932175877757288434027939",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "620",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.3802527796287363019928392872431462",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.6197472203712636980071607127568538",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "45",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
@@ -51302,31 +56062,19 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3624685664431505215185183055911118",
+ "probability": "0.3469431103899506785582487004788511",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6375314335568494784814816944088882",
+ "probability": "0.6530568896100493214417512995211489",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "847",
+ "numforecasts": "888",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
- "address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36",
- "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "outcomes": [
- "Yes",
- "No"
- ],
- "options": [],
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
@@ -51335,16 +56083,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5334554631862323402820807933319699",
+ "probability": "0.5948737239746348935873161930138786",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4665445368137676597179192066680301",
+ "probability": "0.4051262760253651064126838069861214",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "195",
+ "numforecasts": "209",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -51356,40 +56104,19 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.009883483868312364959358354119723674",
+ "probability": "0.009968019036851311783921716162791545",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9901165161316876350406416458802763",
+ "probability": "0.9900319809631486882160782838372085",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "3847",
+ "numforecasts": "3911",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.719850923592054496298680049174087",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.280149076407945503701319950825913",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021",
@@ -51398,40 +56125,19 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05012065833654499591695567341102339",
+ "probability": "0.05391496233657492726637475374322704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9498793416634550040830443265889766",
+ "probability": "0.946085037663425072733625246256773",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "490",
+ "numforecasts": "522",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5770169935621389802193058406202036",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4229830064378610197806941593797964",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "511",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
@@ -51440,16 +56146,63 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7276668169911683398097118967867872",
+ "probability": "0.7710558450747659226717023088638562",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2723331830088316601902881032132128",
+ "probability": "0.2289441549252340773282976911361438",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "209",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Texas",
+ "probability": "0.3479083686657121697689646675549365",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Florida",
+ "probability": "0.5328686474336938586465787000917595",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "California",
+ "probability": "0.119222983900593971584456632353304",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "161",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. \n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.4140774326095636232496922364065135",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.5859225673904363767503077635934865",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "7",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -51461,16 +56214,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1249616481551395062886539344923381",
+ "probability": "0.1275887461538773541920404456362465",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8750383518448604937113460655076619",
+ "probability": "0.8724112538461226458079595543637535",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "47",
+ "numforecasts": "49",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -51482,87 +56235,19 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08259787410691690061287893351053922",
+ "probability": "0.08837522317770079423093589840728967",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9174021258930830993871210664894608",
+ "probability": "0.9116247768222992057690641015927103",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "298",
+ "numforecasts": "303",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Texas",
- "probability": "0.3500003620826511607920533084438381",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida",
- "probability": "0.51451285463340818053806694975702",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "California",
- "probability": "0.1354867832839406586698797417991419",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "143",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07912778821948962977238564057112765",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9208722117805103702276143594288724",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.001051940649472768178218571021399585",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9989480593505272318217814289786004",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1732",
- "stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
@@ -51571,65 +56256,24 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6181001610258899706713743885934304",
+ "probability": "0.4942869104047756267905177059606515",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3818998389741100293286256114065696",
+ "probability": "0.5057130895952243732094822940393485",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "4984",
+ "numforecasts": "5247",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 80",
- "probability": "0.3405166665208588557030405261550704",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "81-95",
- "probability": "0.2069257779675633066754996274438289",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "96-110",
- "probability": "0.1634832414861564553275933427922908",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "111-125",
- "probability": "0.1235110987017487763250162114444212",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "126-140",
- "probability": "0.08248548304886138067830916935318297",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 140",
- "probability": "0.08307773227481122529054112281120574",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 80, 81-95, 96-110, 111-125, 126-140, More than 140"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
+ "address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
@@ -51638,26 +56282,47 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
+ "title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4854328413848816857344594320279314",
+ "probability": "0.4011971233606467821364778801433973",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5145671586151183142655405679720686",
+ "probability": "0.5988028766393532178635221198566027",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "36",
+ "numforecasts": "283",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.06317628455642963361204681856740391",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9368237154435703663879531814325961",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "78",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
@@ -51665,12 +56330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6699029126213591,
+ "probability": 0.6435643564356436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
+ "probability": 0.3564356435643564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51685,22 +56350,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5192307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.4423076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51715,12 +56380,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
+ "probability": 0.5392156862745099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.45544554455445546,
+ "probability": 0.46078431372549017,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51735,12 +56400,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.5784313725490196,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4215686274509804,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51755,47 +56420,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
- "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
+ "probability": 0.3177570093457944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
- "probability": 0.6320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.616822429906542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51810,12 +56475,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51830,12 +56495,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51850,12 +56515,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51890,12 +56555,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51930,12 +56595,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51950,83 +56615,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.47826086956521735,
+ "probability": 0.4666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.23478260869565215,
+ "probability": 0.21666666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.06956521739130433,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
+ "probability": 0.05833333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
+ "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Shaun Donovan",
+ "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dianne Morales",
+ "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Loree Sutton",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Fernando Mateo",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
@@ -52075,12 +56745,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52115,12 +56785,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52135,12 +56805,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6078431372549019,
+ "probability": 0.6138613861386139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.39215686274509803,
+ "probability": 0.38613861386138615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52155,12 +56825,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52175,12 +56845,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52195,12 +56865,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52208,56 +56878,6 @@
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ertharin Cousin",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Schrayer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frederick Barton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Konyndyk",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barsa",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ami Bera",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Samantha Power",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gayle Smith",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ertharin Cousin, Liz Schrayer, Frederick Barton, Jeremy Konyndyk, John Barsa, Ami Bera, Samantha Power, Gayle Smith"
- },
{
"title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
@@ -52285,12 +56905,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52305,22 +56925,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.8640776699029126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52355,52 +56975,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "23 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24 or 25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26 or 27",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28 or 29",
- "probability": 0.36792452830188677,
+ "probability": 0.31531531531531526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or 31",
- "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
+ "probability": 0.29729729729729726,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32 or 33",
- "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52415,12 +57035,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52435,88 +57055,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.48623853211009166,
+ "probability": 0.481132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.2568807339449541,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.23584905660377353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.05660377358490564,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
+ "probability": 0.047169811320754707,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Angela Merkel",
+ "probability": 0.037735849056603765,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Olaf Scholz",
+ "probability": 0.02830188679245282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.02830188679245282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
@@ -52525,37 +57145,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.5185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.21495327102803738,
+ "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.16822429906542055,
+ "probability": 0.1574074074074074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neil Chatterjee",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmett Hanger",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Stanley",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52590,88 +57210,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.23364485981308405,
+ "probability": 0.2427184466019417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.15887850467289716,
+ "probability": 0.15533980582524268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.10280373831775698,
+ "probability": 0.09708737864077668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523363,
+ "probability": 0.09708737864077668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
+ "probability": 0.058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "name": "Tucker Carlson",
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mitt Romney",
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
@@ -52680,12 +57300,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -52725,12 +57345,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "33 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -52740,17 +57360,17 @@
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or 41",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42 or 43",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -52770,37 +57390,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.4818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
+ "probability": 0.22727272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.0818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52855,12 +57475,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52875,12 +57495,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52935,12 +57555,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -52955,67 +57575,67 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.3272727272727272,
+ "probability": 0.36538461538461536,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.2818181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.21818181818181814,
+ "probability": 0.2019230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
+ "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+ "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53180,77 +57800,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.5087719298245613,
+ "probability": 0.5641025641025641,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.3771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.32478632478632474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53265,58 +57885,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8773584905660378,
+ "probability": 0.8846153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Nicolás Maduro, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Lenín Moreno, Daniel Ortega, Jair Bolsonaro, Francisco Sagasti, Sebastián Piñera, Iván Duque, A. M. López Obrador, Alberto Fernández, Luis Arce, Nicolás Maduro"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
@@ -53345,58 +57965,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.5089285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.5689655172413792,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.25892857142857145,
+ "probability": 0.22413793103448273,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.10714285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.04464285714285715,
+ "probability": 0.09482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Kim Jong-un",
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Kim Jong-un, Suga Yoshihide, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"
},
{
"title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
@@ -53405,12 +58025,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53425,7 +58045,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -53445,52 +58065,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.20754716981132074,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.16981132075471697,
+ "probability": 0.16379310344827586,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.15517241379310343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
+ "probability": 0.07758620689655171,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53505,17 +58125,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 53",
- "probability": 0.861111111111111,
+ "probability": 0.898148148148148,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 to 57",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -53564,54 +58184,54 @@
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
+ "name": "Tali Weinstein",
+ "probability": 0.347457627118644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.3211009174311926,
+ "name": "Alvin Bragg",
+ "probability": 0.31355932203389825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
+ "probability": 0.13559322033898302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.10169491525423727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+ "probability": 0.0423728813559322,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+ "probability": 0.033898305084745756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Tali Weinstein, Tahanie Aboushi, Eliza Orlins, Dan Quart, Lucy Lang, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Tali Weinstein, Alvin Bragg, Tahanie Aboushi, Eliza Orlins, Dan Quart, Lucy Lang, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Liz Crotty"
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
@@ -53629,13 +58249,13 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
+ "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -53671,7 +58291,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Abiy Ahmed, Uhuru Kenyatta, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame"
},
{
"title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
@@ -53680,12 +58300,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53700,62 +58320,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116504,
+ "probability": 0.6132075471698113,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21",
- "probability": 0.44660194174757284,
+ "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22",
- "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53770,63 +58390,78 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.1574074074074074,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Renata Hesse",
+ "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Juan Arteaga",
+ "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.10185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Susan Davies",
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Steven Sunshine",
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Gigi Sohn",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Edward Smith",
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Jon Sallet, Rebecca Slaughter, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Steven Sunshine, Dave Gelfand, Sonia Pfaffenroth"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Jon Sallet, Renata Hesse, Juan Arteaga, Rebecca Slaughter, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Deborah Feinstein, Dave Gelfand, Susan Davies, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Steven Sunshine, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
@@ -53835,17 +58470,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.8316831683168316,
+ "probability": 0.8349514563106796,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
+ "probability": 0.1553398058252427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -53920,58 +58555,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.39999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.14953271028037382,
+ "probability": 0.12380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.0857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+ "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
@@ -53980,27 +58615,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.5779816513761468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.39449541284403666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54015,32 +58650,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6732673267326733,
+ "probability": 0.673076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.10576923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
+ "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54055,52 +58690,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
+ "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
+ "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
+ "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.23300970873786406,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
+ "probability": 0.1782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54113,24 +58748,24 @@
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Ryan Costello",
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54141,7 +58776,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Charlie Dent"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Ryan Costello, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Charlie Dent"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
@@ -54170,7 +58805,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54210,68 +58845,68 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.5714285714285713,
+ "probability": 0.5247524752475247,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.05714285714285713,
+ "probability": 0.1881188118811881,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
+ "probability": 0.05940594059405939,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Ann O'Leary",
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonal Shah",
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Heather Boushey",
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jared Bernstein",
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Ann O'Leary, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Chris Lu, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Sarah Bianchi, Ann O'Leary, Martha Coven, Chris Lu, Gene Sperling, Sonal Shah, Neera Tanden, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, John Jones"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
@@ -54280,12 +58915,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54300,52 +58935,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 1M",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1M to 1.05M",
- "probability": 0.24761904761904763,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.05M to 1.1M",
- "probability": 0.2571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.1M to 1.15M",
- "probability": 0.12380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.15M to 1.2M",
- "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.2M to 1.25M",
- "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.25M to 1.3M",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.3M to 1.35M",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.35M to 1.4M",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.4M or more",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54360,27 +58995,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Goodwin Liu",
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54397,11 +59027,16 @@
"name": "Jeff Rosen",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Diana Becton",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Goodwin Liu, Darrell Steinberg, Adam Schiff, Diana Becton, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Darrell Steinberg, Adam Schiff, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton"
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?",
@@ -54410,52 +59045,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "70 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.1782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 to 94",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "95 or more",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54470,12 +59105,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54490,12 +59125,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54510,58 +59145,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5555555555555555,
+ "probability": 0.6138613861386137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.1386138613861386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
+ "probability": 0.0693069306930693,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mark Rutte",
+ "probability": 0.0396039603960396,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mark Rutte, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Mark Rutte, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?",
@@ -54575,7 +59210,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54583,14 +59218,9 @@
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54598,6 +59228,11 @@
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Daniel Urresti",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -54631,172 +59266,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "67 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "67 or fewer, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 to 88, 89 to 91, 92 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "11 or 12",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13 or 14",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15 or 16",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17 or 18",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19 or 20",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21 or 22",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "11 or 12, 13 or 14, 15 or 16, 17 or 18, 19 or 20, 21 or 22, 23 or more"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "61 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.07017543859649124,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.14035087719298248,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.1842105263157895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.11403508771929825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 or more",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280702,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "61 or fewer, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 to 76, 77 to 79, 80 to 82, 83 to 85, 86 or more"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Verónika Mendoza, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
@@ -54805,47 +59275,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Susan Wright",
- "probability": 0.6634615384615384,
+ "probability": 0.6936936936936936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jana Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.18269230769230768,
+ "probability": 0.16216216216216214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Harrison",
- "probability": 0.04807692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jake Ellzey",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Rodimer",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katrina Pierson",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sery Kim",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lydia Bean",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shawn Lassiter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54865,12 +59335,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54882,11 +59352,16 @@
"name": "Jenny Durkan",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, Andrew Grant Houston"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?",
@@ -54895,12 +59370,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54935,12 +59410,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -54949,12 +59424,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
+ "name": "David Perdue",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "David Perdue",
+ "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -54971,7 +59446,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Chris Carr, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Geoff Duncan, Brian Kemp"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Chris Carr, David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler, Geoff Duncan, Brian Kemp"
},
{
"title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
@@ -54980,28 +59455,28 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.798076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.7735849056603774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.09433962264150945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320756,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "South Carolina",
+ "probability": 0.05660377358490567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina"
},
{
"title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?",
@@ -55010,12 +59485,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55030,12 +59505,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.07999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55050,53 +59525,53 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.4230769230769231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.19230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Mike Kehoe",
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Mike Kehoe, Billy Long, Jay Ashcroft, Roy Blunt, Carl Edwards"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Billy Long, Mike Kehoe, Roy Blunt, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
@@ -55105,22 +59580,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55150,12 +59625,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55170,12 +59645,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55190,37 +59665,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "38 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "39",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.9339622641509433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "43",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55235,29 +59710,29 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
+ "name": "8 or 9 votes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "10 or 11 votes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
"probability": 0.1,
@@ -55280,7 +59755,7 @@
},
{
"name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55295,12 +59770,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55335,12 +59810,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.9108910891089109,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -55348,6 +59823,36 @@
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Tishaura Jones, Cara Spencer"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "R House, D Senate",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
+ "probability": 0.21600000000000003,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
+ "probability": 0.184,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "D House, R Senate",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, Rep. House & Senate, D House, R Senate"
+ },
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
@@ -55355,7 +59860,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55365,12 +59870,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55384,13 +59889,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Hillary Clinton",
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55398,6 +59898,16 @@
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Bill de Blasio",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Yang",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Tom Suozzi",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -55406,7 +59916,202 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Hillary Clinton, Thomas DiNapoli, Bill de Blasio, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Jeff Jackson",
+ "probability": 0.31,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Erica Smith",
+ "probability": 0.06,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Heath Shuler",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Republican",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Independent",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Democratic",
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "216 or fewer",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "217 or 218",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "219 or 220",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "221 or 222",
+ "probability": 0.19,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "223 or 224",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "225 or 226",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "227 or 228",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "229 or 230",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "231 or 232",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "233 or more",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"216 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"233 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "216 or fewer, 217 or 218, 219 or 220, 221 or 222, 223 or 224, 225 or 226, 227 or 228, 229 or 230, 231 or 232, 233 or more"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "56 or fewer",
+ "probability": 0.24324324324324323,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "57 to 59",
+ "probability": 0.11711711711711711,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "60 to 62",
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "63 to 65",
+ "probability": 0.1081081081081081,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "66 to 68",
+ "probability": 0.09909909909909909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "69 to 71",
+ "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "72 to 74",
+ "probability": 0.05405405405405405,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "75 to 77",
+ "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "78 to 80",
+ "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "81 or more",
+ "probability": 0.08108108108108107,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Young be confirmed to position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"56 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"81 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "56 or fewer, 57 to 59, 60 to 62, 63 to 65, 66 to 68, 69 to 71, 72 to 74, 75 to 77, 78 to 80, 81 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?",
@@ -55475,27 +60180,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.03712990645192401,
+ "probability": 0.03746229444390386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0009644131545954288,
+ "probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.025364065965859772,
+ "probability": 0.025591125814926532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.026810685697752915,
+ "probability": 0.027050695728325382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.10714630147555212,
+ "probability": 0.10810547825240828,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55505,22 +60210,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.0643263574115151,
+ "probability": 0.06490220881580228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.06220464847140515,
+ "probability": 0.06276150627615062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.05217475166361269,
+ "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
- "probability": 0.005400713665734401,
+ "probability": 0.00544906101002238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55530,27 +60235,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.08033561577779921,
+ "probability": 0.0810547825240829,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
- "probability": 0.05217475166361269,
+ "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.07416337158838847,
+ "probability": 0.07482728422691447,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.03857652618381715,
+ "probability": 0.03892186435730271,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
- "probability": 0.01379110811071463,
+ "probability": 0.013914566507735718,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55565,17 +60270,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
- "probability": 0.030089690423377377,
+ "probability": 0.030359054198696115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
- "probability": 0.022953033079371202,
+ "probability": 0.023158509292595112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
- "probability": 0.009644131545954287,
+ "probability": 0.009730466089325677,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -55585,7 +60290,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.2967499276690134,
+ "probability": 0.2904544127663715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -56321,22 +61026,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8477819657871846,
+ "probability": 0.8523345209075566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.10505460519957474,
+ "probability": 0.10191261953872115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.03334299797042621,
+ "probability": 0.03234577161072567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.01382043104281434,
+ "probability": 0.013407087942996436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -56764,47 +61469,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.9424575424575425,
+ "probability": 0.9327664623294444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.024975024975024976,
+ "probability": 0.029068617757563774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.029370629370629373,
+ "probability": 0.03292465888866917,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0019774569903104606,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "David Kurten",
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Piers Corbyn",
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Siân Berry, , Brian Rose, Mandu Reid, Luisa Porritt, Laurence Fox"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Siân Berry, , Brian Rose, Mandu Reid, Luisa Porritt, Laurence Fox, David Kurten, Piers Corbyn"
},
{
"title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
@@ -56833,12 +61548,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street",
- "probability": 0.6843135336138566,
+ "probability": 0.6873425082380306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne",
- "probability": 0.31568646638614345,
+ "probability": 0.31265749176196933,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -56913,22 +61628,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.5910243407707911,
+ "probability": 0.5867595234099682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.26411426639621366,
+ "probability": 0.2622084242322537,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.08451656524678837,
+ "probability": 0.08390669575432119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.06034482758620689,
+ "probability": 0.06712535660345695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -57373,12 +62088,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6394590446959524,
+ "probability": 0.605265546981389,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36054095530404756,
+ "probability": 0.39473445301861093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -57583,57 +62298,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.29622716971070523,
+ "probability": 0.3018201575658788,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.022263698173576853,
+ "probability": 0.022684053246400434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.031729102786295156,
+ "probability": 0.032328171692474865,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.06345820557259031,
+ "probability": 0.06465634338494973,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.028929476069857348,
+ "probability": 0.029475685954903557,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.055592587654979334,
+ "probability": 0.037761477859277366,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.1586455139314758,
+ "probability": 0.16164085846237436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.026663111585121982,
+ "probability": 0.027166530834012496,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.05799226769764031,
+ "probability": 0.059087204563977175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.0833222237035062,
+ "probability": 0.08489540885628905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04599386748433542,
+ "probability": 0.04686226568867156,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -57658,17 +62373,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.013331555792560991,
+ "probability": 0.013583265417006248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.013331555792560991,
+ "probability": 0.013583265417006248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.10251966404479403,
+ "probability": 0.10445531105677805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -57833,17 +62548,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.8493275172664486,
+ "probability": 0.8138083349337432,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.016539440203562343,
+ "probability": 0.017476473977338203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.004543802253725918,
+ "probability": 0.0036489341271365473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -57853,18 +62568,23 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.07906215921483097,
+ "probability": 0.11167658920683697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.05052708106143221,
+ "probability": 0.05338966775494527,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Laurence Fox",
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Shaun Bailey, Sadiq Khan, Siân Berry, Luisa Porritt, Brian Rose, Mandu Reid"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Shaun Bailey, Sadiq Khan, Siân Berry, Luisa Porritt, Brian Rose, Mandu Reid, Laurence Fox"
},
{
"title": "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
@@ -58018,17 +62738,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 20",
- "probability": 0.37488097505237095,
+ "probability": 0.427658109570178,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20–24",
- "probability": 0.38706912968958296,
+ "probability": 0.399822956624373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25 or more",
- "probability": 0.2380498952580461,
+ "probability": 0.17251893380544903,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58073,17 +62793,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "GroenLinks",
- "probability": 0.3164641093809343,
+ "probability": 0.25637114142139267,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)",
- "probability": 0.12827573110520318,
+ "probability": 0.218862167982771,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)",
- "probability": 0.5552601595138625,
+ "probability": 0.5247666905958364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58198,32 +62918,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
- "probability": 0.0282949233166571,
+ "probability": 0.028680688336520075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45–49.9%",
- "probability": 0.12064299188058722,
+ "probability": 0.10142156455233185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50–54.9%",
- "probability": 0.5360452718773067,
+ "probability": 0.5505860836312245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55–59.9%",
- "probability": 0.22783564340195195,
+ "probability": 0.2309418904314573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60–64.9%",
- "probability": 0.07455097186910523,
+ "probability": 0.07556737883448332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65% or over",
- "probability": 0.012630197654391865,
+ "probability": 0.012802394213982875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58438,12 +63158,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9556486987035774,
+ "probability": 0.9114912606917069,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04435130129642265,
+ "probability": 0.08850873930829305,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58478,27 +63198,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5402559680493783,
+ "probability": 0.5417533701257577,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.17454842516111463,
+ "probability": 0.17397991495521578,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.08250884995915403,
+ "probability": 0.08224011580566362,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.04129980938549514,
+ "probability": 0.041165294490183656,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.10801488608514115,
+ "probability": 0.10766307789740343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -58508,7 +63228,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.053372061359716796,
+ "probability": 0.05319822672577581,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -58958,12 +63678,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0.4299680766161213,
+ "probability": 0.3380956856847448,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.5700319233838786,
+ "probability": 0.6619043143152552,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59248,12 +63968,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.8743213352101347,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.12567866478986528,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59288,12 +64008,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.17962075432381747,
+ "probability": 0.25555450505814503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
- "probability": 0.8203792456761826,
+ "probability": 0.744445494941855,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59348,12 +64068,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.668265240247164,
+ "probability": 0.683055775839281,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.33173475975283595,
+ "probability": 0.316944224160719,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59448,12 +64168,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.6635258645057949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.33647413549420524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59913,27 +64633,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.4359478731251537,
+ "probability": 0.4244963451595649,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.4820916318334563,
+ "probability": 0.46915671242645746,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.08196049504139005,
+ "probability": 0.01274737029773578,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.004457122481725797,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.08914244963451595,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59941,6 +64661,76 @@
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Joe Biden exit date",
+ "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date",
+ "platform": "Smarkets",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "2021",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2022",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2023",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2024",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2025 or later",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?",
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or later"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats",
+ "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats",
+ "platform": "Smarkets",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "60 or fewer",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "61–64",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "65–68",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "69–72",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "73 or more",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "60 or fewer, 61–64, 65–68, 69–72, 73 or more"
+ },
{
"title": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.csv b/data/polymarket-questions.csv
index 83018c1..8accf0a 100644
--- a/data/polymarket-questions.csv
+++ b/data/polymarket-questions.csv
@@ -1,48 +1,12 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
-"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04370182432456576988928154888546837"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9562981756754342301107184511145316"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141",,3
-"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1934946039826556687210229849332036"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8065053960173443312789770150667964"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109",,4
-"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.93969077074312079300852328223358"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.06030922925687920699147671776642001"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1245",,3
-"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",,"This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,,
+"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2786055887630196690122933578202847"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7213944112369803309877066421797153"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","19",,4
"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.6706007725723407971118622145171625"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.3293992274276592028881377854828375"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94",,4
-"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
-"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3624685664431505215185183055911118"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6375314335568494784814816944088882"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","847",,4
-"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",,"This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,,
-"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7567612226678442802779601760633623"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2432387773321557197220398239366377"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","111",,4
+"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-
-
-
-
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5334554631862323402820807933319699"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4665445368137676597179192066680301"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","195",,4
-"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
-
-If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.009883483868312364959358354119723674"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9901165161316876350406416458802763"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3847",,3
-"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021","PolyMarket"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.719850923592054496298680049174087"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.280149076407945503701319950825913"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54",,4
-"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
-
-If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05012065833654499591695567341102339"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9498793416634550040830443265889766"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","490",,3
-"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5770169935621389802193058406202036"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4229830064378610197806941593797964"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","511",,4
-"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
-
-This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7276668169911683398097118967867872"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2723331830088316601902881032132128"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","209",,4
-"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1249616481551395062886539344923381"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8750383518448604937113460655076619"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47",,4
-"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08259787410691690061287893351053922"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9174021258930830993871210664894608"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298",,3
-"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3500003620826511607920533084438381"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.51451285463340818053806694975702"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1354867832839406586698797417991419"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","143",,4
-"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07912778821948962977238564057112765"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9208722117805103702276143594288724"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63",,3
-"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-
-Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.001051940649472768178218571021399585"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9989480593505272318217814289786004"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1732",,2
-"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
-
-This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6181001610258899706713743885934304"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3818998389741100293286256114065696"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4984",,4
+Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5343306424605916138160044415594014"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4656693575394083861839955584405986"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79",,4
+"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9382535450938875672215375026234161"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.06174645490611243277846249737658387"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1294",,3
"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET.
At 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
@@ -51,8 +15,42 @@ Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in questi
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
-In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Less than 80"",""probability"":""0.3405166665208588557030405261550704"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81-95"",""probability"":""0.2069257779675633066754996274438289"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""96-110"",""probability"":""0.1634832414861564553275933427922908"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""111-125"",""probability"":""0.1235110987017487763250162114444212"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""126-140"",""probability"":""0.08248548304886138067830916935318297"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 140"",""probability"":""0.08307773227481122529054112281120574"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","81",,4
-"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",,"This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[]",,,
-"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Less than 80"",""probability"":""0.1896658123630845294321136468815691"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80-95"",""probability"":""0.2548856753523841491528462046351393"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""96-110"",""probability"":""0.2141893378681457564905702188353323"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""111-125"",""probability"":""0.1688476774839751329216091564165022"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""126-140"",""probability"":""0.1072364692081966116976011485417401"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 140"",""probability"":""0.06517502772421382030525962468971683"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","242",,4
+"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8983913045560304941792165871351091"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1016086954439695058207834128648909"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","747",,4
+"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4854328413848816857344594320279314"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5145671586151183142655405679720686"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","36",,4
\ No newline at end of file
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6403626165067824122242711565972061"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3596373834932175877757288434027939"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","620",,4
+"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3802527796287363019928392872431462"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6197472203712636980071607127568538"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45",,4
+"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
+"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3469431103899506785582487004788511"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6530568896100493214417512995211489"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","888",,4
+"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+
+
+
+
+
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5948737239746348935873161930138786"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4051262760253651064126838069861214"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","209",,4
+"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
+
+If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.009968019036851311783921716162791545"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9900319809631486882160782838372085"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3911",,3
+"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
+
+If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05391496233657492726637475374322704"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.946085037663425072733625246256773"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","522",,3
+"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
+
+This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7710558450747659226717023088638562"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2289441549252340773282976911361438"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246",,4
+"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3479083686657121697689646675549365"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.5328686474336938586465787000917595"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.119222983900593971584456632353304"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","161",,4
+"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4140774326095636232496922364065135"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5859225673904363767503077635934865"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","7",,4
+"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1275887461538773541920404456362465"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8724112538461226458079595543637535"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","49",,4
+"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08837522317770079423093589840728967"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9116247768222992057690641015927103"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","303",,3
+"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
+
+This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4942869104047756267905177059606515"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5057130895952243732094822940393485"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5247",,4
+"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",,"This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","[]",,,
+"Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4011971233606467821364778801433973"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5988028766393532178635221198566027"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283",,4
+"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06317628455642963361204681856740391"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9368237154435703663879531814325961"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78",,3
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json
index e30273d..c0436e2 100644
--- a/data/polymarket-questions.json
+++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json
@@ -1,42 +1,62 @@
[
{
- "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",
+ "title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.04370182432456576988928154888546837",
+ "probability": "0.2786055887630196690122933578202847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9562981756754342301107184511145316",
+ "probability": "0.7213944112369803309877066421797153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "141",
- "stars": 3
+ "numforecasts": "19",
+ "stars": 4
},
{
- "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
+ "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
+ "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Bezos",
+ "probability": "0.7567612226678442802779601760633623",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Musk",
+ "probability": "0.2432387773321557197220398239366377",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "111",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1934946039826556687210229849332036",
+ "probability": "0.5343306424605916138160044415594014",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8065053960173443312789770150667964",
+ "probability": "0.4656693575394083861839955584405986",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "109",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -47,47 +67,116 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.93969077074312079300852328223358",
+ "probability": "0.9382535450938875672215375026234161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.06030922925687920699147671776642001",
+ "probability": "0.06174645490611243277846249737658387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1245",
+ "numforecasts": "1294",
"stars": 3
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Less than 80",
+ "probability": "0.1896658123630845294321136468815691",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "80-95",
+ "probability": "0.2548856753523841491528462046351393",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "96-110",
+ "probability": "0.2141893378681457564905702188353323",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "111-125",
+ "probability": "0.1688476774839751329216091564165022",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "126-140",
+ "probability": "0.1072364692081966116976011485417401",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "More than 140",
+ "probability": "0.06517502772421382030525962468971683",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "242",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
- "address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "outcomes": [
- "Yes",
- "No"
- ],
- "options": []
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Bezos",
- "probability": "0.6706007725723407971118622145171625",
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.8983913045560304941792165871351091",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Musk",
- "probability": "0.3293992274276592028881377854828375",
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.1016086954439695058207834128648909",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "94",
+ "numforecasts": "747",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.6403626165067824122242711565972061",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.3596373834932175877757288434027939",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "620",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.3802527796287363019928392872431462",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.6197472203712636980071607127568538",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "45",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -109,29 +198,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3624685664431505215185183055911118",
+ "probability": "0.3469431103899506785582487004788511",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6375314335568494784814816944088882",
+ "probability": "0.6530568896100493214417512995211489",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "847",
+ "numforecasts": "888",
"stars": 4
},
- {
- "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
- "address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36",
- "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "outcomes": [
- "Yes",
- "No"
- ],
- "options": []
- },
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
@@ -140,16 +218,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5334554631862323402820807933319699",
+ "probability": "0.5948737239746348935873161930138786",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4665445368137676597179192066680301",
+ "probability": "0.4051262760253651064126838069861214",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "195",
+ "numforecasts": "209",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -160,38 +238,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.009883483868312364959358354119723674",
+ "probability": "0.009968019036851311783921716162791545",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9901165161316876350406416458802763",
+ "probability": "0.9900319809631486882160782838372085",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "3847",
+ "numforecasts": "3911",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.719850923592054496298680049174087",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.280149076407945503701319950825913",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "stars": 4
- },
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021",
@@ -200,38 +258,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05012065833654499591695567341102339",
+ "probability": "0.05391496233657492726637475374322704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9498793416634550040830443265889766",
+ "probability": "0.946085037663425072733625246256773",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "490",
+ "numforecasts": "522",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.5770169935621389802193058406202036",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.4229830064378610197806941593797964",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "511",
- "stars": 4
- },
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
@@ -240,16 +278,61 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7276668169911683398097118967867872",
+ "probability": "0.7710558450747659226717023088638562",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2723331830088316601902881032132128",
+ "probability": "0.2289441549252340773282976911361438",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "209",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Texas",
+ "probability": "0.3479083686657121697689646675549365",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Florida",
+ "probability": "0.5328686474336938586465787000917595",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "California",
+ "probability": "0.119222983900593971584456632353304",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "161",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. \n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.4140774326095636232496922364065135",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.5859225673904363767503077635934865",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "7",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -260,16 +343,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1249616481551395062886539344923381",
+ "probability": "0.1275887461538773541920404456362465",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8750383518448604937113460655076619",
+ "probability": "0.8724112538461226458079595543637535",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "47",
+ "numforecasts": "49",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -280,83 +363,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.08259787410691690061287893351053922",
+ "probability": "0.08837522317770079423093589840728967",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9174021258930830993871210664894608",
+ "probability": "0.9116247768222992057690641015927103",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "298",
+ "numforecasts": "303",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Texas",
- "probability": "0.3500003620826511607920533084438381",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida",
- "probability": "0.51451285463340818053806694975702",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "California",
- "probability": "0.1354867832839406586698797417991419",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "143",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.07912778821948962977238564057112765",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9208722117805103702276143594288724",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "63",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.001051940649472768178218571021399585",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9989480593505272318217814289786004",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "1732",
- "stars": 2
- },
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
@@ -365,63 +383,23 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6181001610258899706713743885934304",
+ "probability": "0.4942869104047756267905177059606515",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3818998389741100293286256114065696",
+ "probability": "0.5057130895952243732094822940393485",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "4984",
+ "numforecasts": "5247",
"stars": 4
},
{
- "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Less than 80",
- "probability": "0.3405166665208588557030405261550704",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "81-95",
- "probability": "0.2069257779675633066754996274438289",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "96-110",
- "probability": "0.1634832414861564553275933427922908",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "111-125",
- "probability": "0.1235110987017487763250162114444212",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "126-140",
- "probability": "0.08248548304886138067830916935318297",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "More than 140",
- "probability": "0.08307773227481122529054112281120574",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
- "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
+ "address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
@@ -429,23 +407,43 @@
"options": []
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
+ "title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4854328413848816857344594320279314",
+ "probability": "0.4011971233606467821364778801433973",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5145671586151183142655405679720686",
+ "probability": "0.5988028766393532178635221198566027",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "36",
+ "numforecasts": "283",
"stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.06317628455642963361204681856740391",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9368237154435703663879531814325961",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "78",
+ "stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.csv b/data/predictit-questions.csv
index adb9391..66430db 100644
--- a/data/predictit-questions.csv
+++ b/data/predictit-questions.csv
@@ -2,47 +2,47 @@
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6699029126213591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3300970873786408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6435643564356436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3564356435643564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5445544554455446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45544554455445546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5392156862745099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.46078431372549017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4215686274509804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.3177570093457944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.616822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstand
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -67,11 +67,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.47826086956521735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.23478260869565215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06956521739130433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.026086956521739126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05833333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -93,36 +93,23 @@ End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6138613861386139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38613861386138615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
-The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
-Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
-PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-
-Supplementary Comment(s)
-
-Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)
-In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
-Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)
-Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
-","[{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -130,12 +117,12 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8640776699029126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -145,39 +132,39 @@ End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.36792452830188677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.31531531531531526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.29729729729729726,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.48623853211009166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.2568807339449541,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.481132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.23584905660377353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.05660377358490564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.047169811320754707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5185185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21296296296296297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23364485981308405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.15887850467289716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.10280373831775698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09345794392523363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2427184466019417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.15533980582524268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.22429906542056072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.4818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.22727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.0818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@@ -193,11 +180,11 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -209,11 +196,11 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.21818181818181814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.36538461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2788461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.2019230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@@ -241,13 +228,13 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5087719298245613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5641025641025641,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.32478632478632474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8773584905660378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -263,24 +250,24 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
-","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5089285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.25892857142857145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.10714285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.04464285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5689655172413792,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.22413793103448273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16981132075471697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16379310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.15517241379310343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07758620689655171,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
@@ -295,22 +282,22 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET)
NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.
Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.
-","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.05555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.861111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.898148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.33944954128440363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3211009174311926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.16513761467889906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.347457627118644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.31355932203389825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.13559322033898302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.10169491525423727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.0423728813559322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.033898305084745756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
@@ -325,17 +312,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
-","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.14563106796116504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.44660194174757284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.30097087378640774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.07547169811320754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.6132075471698113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.18518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.10185185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8316831683168316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8349514563106796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@@ -349,23 +336,23 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.39999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.5779816513761468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.39449541284403666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6732673267326733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.673076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.11650485436893203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.23300970873786406,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.1650485436893204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.19801980198019803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.1782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -373,7 +360,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -383,7 +370,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.15238095238095234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.05714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5247524752475247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.1881188118811881,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -393,7 +380,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
@@ -404,79 +391,56 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released.
-","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.2571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.
Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.6138613861386137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.1386138613861386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0693069306930693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.0396039603960396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
-A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
-Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
-The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
-PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.
-For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
-The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
-And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
-And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
-Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
-PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
-"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
-A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
-Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
-The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
-PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.026315789473684213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.07017543859649124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.14035087719298248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.2017543859649123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.2017543859649123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.1842105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11403508771929825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.04385964912280702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6634615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6936936936936936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.16216216216216214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
@@ -491,46 +455,46 @@ Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
-","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.798076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7735849056603774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.07547169811320756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.05660377358490567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.4230769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.19230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9339622641509433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -538,8 +502,45 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.9108910891089109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
+The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
+Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., ""delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
+Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.
+Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.
+Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.
+Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+","[{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.21600000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
\ No newline at end of file
+","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
+","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
+PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.
+Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent.""
+PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.
+Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""216 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""233 or more"" shall resolve as Yes.
+Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
+Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
+","[{""name"":""216 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""217 or 218"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""219 or 220"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""221 or 222"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""223 or 224"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""225 or 226"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""227 or 228"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""229 or 230"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""231 or 232"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""233 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
+"How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
+A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
+Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
+Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Young be confirmed to position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""56 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""81 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
+The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+End Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
+","[{""name"":""56 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24324324324324323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.11711711711711711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.1081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.09909909909909909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.07207207207207207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 or more"",""probability"":0.08108108108108107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json
index 9016823..1575dee 100644
--- a/data/predictit-questions.json
+++ b/data/predictit-questions.json
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.6699029126213591,
+ "probability": 0.6435643564356436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
+ "probability": 0.3564356435643564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -25,22 +25,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5192307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.4423076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54,12 +54,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
+ "probability": 0.5392156862745099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.45544554455445546,
+ "probability": 0.46078431372549017,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -73,12 +73,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.5784313725490196,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4215686274509804,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -92,47 +92,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
- "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
+ "probability": 0.3177570093457944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
- "probability": 0.6320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.616822429906542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -146,12 +146,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -165,12 +165,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -184,12 +184,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -222,12 +222,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -260,12 +260,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -279,77 +279,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.47826086956521735,
+ "probability": 0.4666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.23478260869565215,
+ "probability": 0.21666666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.06956521739130433,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
+ "probability": 0.05833333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.043478260869565216,
+ "probability": 0.04999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.017391304347826084,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Shaun Donovan",
+ "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dianne Morales",
+ "probability": 0.016666666666666663,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Carlos Menchaca",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Loree Sutton",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Fernando Mateo",
+ "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -401,12 +406,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -439,12 +444,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -458,12 +463,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6078431372549019,
+ "probability": 0.6138613861386139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.39215686274509803,
+ "probability": 0.38613861386138615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -477,12 +482,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -496,12 +501,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -515,67 +520,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Ertharin Cousin",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Liz Schrayer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Frederick Barton",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jeremy Konyndyk",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "John Barsa",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ami Bera",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Samantha Power",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Gayle Smith",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
@@ -602,12 +558,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -621,22 +577,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.8640776699029126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -669,52 +625,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "23 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24 or 25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26 or 27",
- "probability": 0.12264150943396226,
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28 or 29",
- "probability": 0.36792452830188677,
+ "probability": 0.31531531531531526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or 31",
- "probability": 0.3018867924528302,
+ "probability": 0.29729729729729726,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32 or 33",
- "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -728,12 +684,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -747,82 +703,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.48623853211009166,
+ "probability": 0.481132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.2568807339449541,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.04587155963302751,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.23584905660377353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.05660377358490564,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Annalena Baerbock",
+ "probability": 0.047169811320754707,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Angela Merkel",
+ "probability": 0.037735849056603765,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Olaf Scholz",
+ "probability": 0.02830188679245282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.027522935779816505,
+ "probability": 0.02830188679245282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605502,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -836,37 +792,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.5185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.21495327102803738,
+ "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Glenn Youngkin",
- "probability": 0.16822429906542055,
+ "probability": 0.1574074074074074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neil Chatterjee",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmett Hanger",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Stanley",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -899,82 +855,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.23364485981308405,
+ "probability": 0.2427184466019417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.15887850467289716,
+ "probability": 0.15533980582524268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.10280373831775698,
+ "probability": 0.09708737864077668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523363,
+ "probability": 0.09708737864077668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
+ "probability": 0.058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.05607476635514017,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.03738317757009345,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "name": "Tucker Carlson",
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.028037383177570086,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mitt Romney",
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046724,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -988,12 +944,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1032,12 +988,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "33 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1047,17 +1003,17 @@
},
{
"name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40 or 41",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42 or 43",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1076,37 +1032,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.4818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.22429906542056072,
+ "probability": 0.22727272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.0818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1158,12 +1114,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1177,12 +1133,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1234,12 +1190,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1253,67 +1209,67 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.3272727272727272,
+ "probability": 0.36538461538461536,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.2818181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.21818181818181814,
+ "probability": 0.2019230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.054545454545454536,
+ "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+ "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.027272727272727268,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1472,77 +1428,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.5087719298245613,
+ "probability": 0.5641025641025641,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.3771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.32478632478632474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1556,52 +1512,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8773584905660378,
+ "probability": 0.8846153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Nicolás Maduro",
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1634,52 +1590,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.5089285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.5689655172413792,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.25892857142857145,
+ "probability": 0.22413793103448273,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.10714285714285715,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.04464285714285715,
+ "probability": 0.09482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.03571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Kim Jong-un",
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.00892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1693,12 +1649,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.89,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.08999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1712,7 +1668,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1731,52 +1687,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "67 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.20754716981132074,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.16981132075471697,
+ "probability": 0.16379310344827586,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
+ "probability": 0.18103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.1320754716981132,
+ "probability": 0.15517241379310343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
+ "probability": 0.07758620689655171,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1790,17 +1746,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.05555555555555555,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 53",
- "probability": 0.861111111111111,
+ "probability": 0.898148148148148,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 to 57",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1848,48 +1804,48 @@
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
+ "name": "Tali Weinstein",
+ "probability": 0.347457627118644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.3211009174311926,
+ "name": "Alvin Bragg",
+ "probability": 0.31355932203389825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
+ "probability": 0.13559322033898302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.10169491525423727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+ "probability": 0.0423728813559322,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+ "probability": 0.033898305084745756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1912,13 +1868,13 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
+ "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1962,12 +1918,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1981,62 +1937,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "12 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
- "probability": 0.14563106796116504,
+ "probability": 0.6132075471698113,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21",
- "probability": 0.44660194174757284,
+ "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22",
- "probability": 0.30097087378640774,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2050,57 +2006,72 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.1574074074074074,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Renata Hesse",
+ "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Juan Arteaga",
+ "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.10185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Susan Davies",
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Steven Sunshine",
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Gigi Sohn",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Edward Smith",
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2114,17 +2085,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.8316831683168316,
+ "probability": 0.8349514563106796,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.15841584158415842,
+ "probability": 0.1553398058252427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2197,52 +2168,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.39999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.14953271028037382,
+ "probability": 0.12380952380952381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.10476190476190476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.0857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018691,
+ "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+ "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2256,27 +2227,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.5779816513761468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.39449541284403666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2290,32 +2261,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6732673267326733,
+ "probability": 0.673076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.10576923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
+ "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2329,52 +2300,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
+ "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.0970873786407767,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.11650485436893203,
+ "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.1941747572815534,
+ "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.23300970873786406,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
+ "probability": 0.1782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.038834951456310676,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233007,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155338,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2386,24 +2357,24 @@
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
- {
- "name": "Ryan Costello",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Ryan Costello",
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Everett Stern",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2441,7 +2412,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2479,62 +2450,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.5714285714285713,
+ "probability": 0.5247524752475247,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.15238095238095234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.05714285714285713,
+ "probability": 0.1881188118811881,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
+ "probability": 0.05940594059405939,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Ann O'Leary",
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonal Shah",
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Heather Boushey",
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jared Bernstein",
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809521,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2548,12 +2519,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2567,52 +2538,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 1M",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1M to 1.05M",
- "probability": 0.24761904761904763,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.05M to 1.1M",
- "probability": 0.2571428571428572,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.1M to 1.15M",
- "probability": 0.12380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.15M to 1.2M",
- "probability": 0.09523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.2M to 1.25M",
- "probability": 0.047619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.25M to 1.3M",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.3M to 1.35M",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.35M to 1.4M",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.4M or more",
- "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2626,27 +2597,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Goodwin Liu",
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2663,6 +2629,11 @@
"name": "Jeff Rosen",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Diana Becton",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
@@ -2675,52 +2646,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "70 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.1782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "92 to 94",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.21782178217821782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "95 or more",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2734,12 +2705,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2753,12 +2724,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2772,52 +2743,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.5555555555555555,
+ "probability": 0.6138613861386137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.09259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.1386138613861386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
+ "probability": 0.0693069306930693,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mark Rutte",
+ "probability": 0.0396039603960396,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.029702970297029695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.0198019801980198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.0099009900990099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2836,7 +2807,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2844,14 +2815,9 @@
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2859,6 +2825,11 @@
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Verónika Mendoza",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Daniel Urresti",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -2893,168 +2864,6 @@
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "67 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 to 88",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "89 to 91",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "92 or more",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "11 or 12",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "13 or 14",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "15 or 16",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "17 or 18",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "19 or 20",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "21 or 22",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "23 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "61 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561405,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684213,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.07017543859649124,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.14035087719298248,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "74 to 76",
- "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "77 to 79",
- "probability": 0.2017543859649123,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "80 to 82",
- "probability": 0.1842105263157895,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "83 to 85",
- "probability": 0.11403508771929825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "86 or more",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280702,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District",
@@ -3062,47 +2871,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Susan Wright",
- "probability": 0.6634615384615384,
+ "probability": 0.6936936936936936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jana Sanchez",
- "probability": 0.18269230769230768,
+ "probability": 0.16216216216216214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Harrison",
- "probability": 0.04807692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jake Ellzey",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Rodimer",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katrina Pierson",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sery Kim",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lydia Bean",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shawn Lassiter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3121,12 +2930,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Colleen Echohawk",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3138,6 +2947,11 @@
"name": "Jenny Durkan",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
@@ -3150,12 +2964,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicholas Burns",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3189,12 +3003,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3203,12 +3017,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
+ "name": "David Perdue",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "David Perdue",
+ "name": "Kelly Loeffler",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -3233,22 +3047,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.798076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.7735849056603774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.09433962264150945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.05769230769230769,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320756,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "South Carolina",
+ "probability": 0.05660377358490567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3262,12 +3076,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.41000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3281,12 +3095,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.07999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3300,47 +3114,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.4230769230769231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.19230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.13,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.11538461538461538,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Mike Kehoe",
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3354,22 +3168,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3398,12 +3212,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3417,12 +3231,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3436,37 +3250,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "38 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "39",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "42",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.9339622641509433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "43",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3480,29 +3294,29 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "8 or 9 votes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "10 or 11 votes",
+ "name": "8 or 9 votes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "10 or 11 votes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
"probability": 0.1,
@@ -3525,7 +3339,7 @@
},
{
"name": "20 or more",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3539,12 +3353,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.73,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3577,18 +3391,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.9108910891089109,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "R House, D Senate",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dem. House & Senate",
+ "probability": 0.21600000000000003,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Rep. House & Senate",
+ "probability": 0.184,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "D House, R Senate",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
@@ -3596,7 +3439,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3606,12 +3449,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3625,13 +3468,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Bill de Blasio",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "name": "Hillary Clinton",
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3639,6 +3477,16 @@
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Bill de Blasio",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Yang",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Tom Suozzi",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -3647,5 +3495,195 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Jeff Jackson",
+ "probability": 0.31,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Erica Smith",
+ "probability": 0.06,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Heath Shuler",
+ "probability": 0,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Republican",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Independent",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Democratic",
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "216 or fewer",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "217 or 218",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "219 or 220",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "221 or 222",
+ "probability": 0.19,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "223 or 224",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "225 or 226",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "227 or 228",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "229 or 230",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "231 or 232",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "233 or more",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.\nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"216 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"233 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nOnce the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.\nVotes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "56 or fewer",
+ "probability": 0.24324324324324323,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "57 to 59",
+ "probability": 0.11711711711711711,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "60 to 62",
+ "probability": 0.14414414414414414,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "63 to 65",
+ "probability": 0.1081081081081081,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "66 to 68",
+ "probability": 0.09909909909909909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "69 to 71",
+ "probability": 0.07207207207207207,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "72 to 74",
+ "probability": 0.05405405405405405,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "75 to 77",
+ "probability": 0.036036036036036036,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "78 to 80",
+ "probability": 0.04504504504504504,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "81 or more",
+ "probability": 0.08108108108108107,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Young be confirmed to position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"56 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"81 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
+ "stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/README.md b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/README.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..0bdf658
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/README.md
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+https://wikitable2csv.ggor.de/
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
+
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..abb3b25
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,507 @@
+Symbol,Security,SEC filings,GICS Sector,GICS Sub-Industry,Headquarters Location,Date first added,CIK,Founded
+MMM,3M Company,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1976-08-09,0000066740,1902
+ABT,Abbott Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"North Chicago, Illinois",1964-03-31,0000001800,1888
+ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"North Chicago, Illinois",2012-12-31,0001551152,2013 (1888)
+ABMD,Abiomed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Danvers, Massachusetts",2018-05-31,0000815094,1981
+ACN,Accenture,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-07-06,0001467373,1989
+ATVI,Activision Blizzard,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Santa Monica, California",2015-08-31,0000718877,2008
+ADBE,Adobe Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",1997-05-05,0000796343,1982
+AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2017-03-20,0000002488,1969
+AAP,Advance Auto Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automotive Retail,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2015-07-09,0001158449,1932
+AES,AES Corp,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Arlington, Virginia",1998-10-02,0000874761,1981
+AFL,Aflac,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Columbus, Georgia",1999-05-28,0000004977,1955
+A,Agilent Technologies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2000-06-05,0001090872,1999
+APD,Air Products & Chemicals,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",1985-04-30,0000002969,1940
+AKAM,Akamai Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2007-07-12,0001086222,1998
+ALK,Alaska Air Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Seattle, Washington",2016-05-13,0000766421,1985
+ALB,Albemarle Corporation,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2016-07-01,0000915913,1994
+ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Pasadena, California",2017-03-20,0001035443,1994
+ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Boston, Massachusetts",2012-05-25,0000899866,1992
+ALGN,Align Technology,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Jose, California",2017-06-19,0001097149,1997
+ALLE,Allegion,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2013-12-02,0001579241,1908
+LNT,Alliant Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Madison, Wisconsin",2016-07-01,0000352541,1917
+ALL,Allstate Corp,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Northfield Township, Illinois",1995-07-13,0000899051,1931
+GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2014-04-03,0001652044,1998
+GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2006-04-03,0001652044,1998
+MO,Altria Group Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"Richmond, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000764180,1985
+AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2005-11-18,0001018724,1994
+AMCR,Amcor plc,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Warmley, Bristol, United Kingdom",2019-06-07,0001748790,2019 (1860)
+AEE,Ameren Corp,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"St. Louis, Missouri",1991-09-19,0001002910,1902
+AAL,American Airlines Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Fort Worth, Texas",2015-03-23,0000006201,1934
+AEP,American Electric Power,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Columbus, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000004904,1906
+AXP,American Express,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"New York, New York",1976-06-30,0000004962,1850
+AIG,American International Group,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",1980-03-31,0000005272,1919
+AMT,American Tower Corp.,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2007-11-19,0001053507,1995
+AWK,American Water Works,reports,Utilities,Water Utilities,"Camden, New Jersey",2016-03-04,0001410636,1886
+AMP,Ameriprise Financial,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",2005-10-03,0000820027,1894
+ABC,AmerisourceBergen,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania",2001-08-30,0001140859,1985
+AME,Ametek,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Berwyn, Pennsylvania",2013-09-23,0001037868,1930
+AMGN,Amgen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Thousand Oaks, California",1992-01-02,0000318154,1980
+APH,Amphenol Corp,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Wallingford, Connecticut",2008-09-30,0000820313,1932
+ADI,"Analog Devices, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Norwood, Massachusetts",1999-10-12,0000006281,1965
+ANSS,"ANSYS, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Canonsburg, Pennsylvania",2017-06-19,0001013462,1969
+ANTM,Anthem,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-07-25,0001156039,2014 (1946)
+AON,Aon plc,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",1996-04-23,0000315293,1982 (1919)
+AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2017-07-26,0000091142,1916
+APA,APA Corporation,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1997-07-28,0000006769,1954
+AAPL,Apple Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Cupertino, California",1982-11-30,0000320193,1977
+AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",1995-03-16,0000006951,1967
+APTV,Aptiv PLC,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2012-12-24,0001521332,1994
+ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Agricultural Products,"Chicago, Illinois",1981-07-29,0000007084,1902
+ANET,Arista Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2018-08-28,0001596532,2004
+AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"Rolling Meadows, Illinois",2016-05-31,0000354190,1927
+AIZ,Assurant,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",2007-04-10,0001267238,1892
+T,AT&T Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"Dallas, Texas",1983-11-30 (1957-03-04),0000732717,1983 (1885)
+ATO,Atmos Energy,reports,Utilities,Gas Utilities,"Dallas, Texas",2019-02-15,0000731802,1906
+ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Rafael, California",1989-12-01,0000769397,1982
+ADP,Automatic Data Processing,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Roseland, New Jersey",1981-03-31,0000008670,1949
+AZO,AutoZone Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Memphis, Tennessee",1997-01-02,0000866787,1979
+AVB,AvalonBay Communities,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Arlington, Virginia[3]",2007-01-10,0000915912,1978
+AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Glendale, California",1987-12-31,0000008818,1990
+BKR,Baker Hughes Co,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2017-07-07,0001701605,2017
+BLL,Ball Corp,reports,Materials,Metal & Glass Containers,"Broomfield, Colorado",1984-10-31,0000009389,1880
+BAC,Bank of America Corp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0000070858,1998 (1923 / 1874)
+BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",1995-03-31,0001390777,1784
+BAX,Baxter International Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Deerfield, Illinois",1972-09-30,0000010456,1931
+BDX,Becton Dickinson,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Franklin Lakes, New Jersey",1972-09-30,0000010795,1897
+BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,reports,Financials,Multi-Sector Holdings,"Omaha, Nebraska",2010-02-16,0001067983,1839
+BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Computer & Electronics Retail,"Richfield, Minnesota",1999-06-29,0000764478,1966
+BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Hercules, California",2020-06-22,0000012208,1952
+BIIB,Biogen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2003-11-13,0000875045,1978
+BLK,BlackRock,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",2011-04-04,0001364742,1988
+BA,Boeing Company,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000012927,1916
+BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Norwalk, Connecticut",2009-11-06,0001075531,1996
+BWA,BorgWarner,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Auburn Hills, Michigan",2011-12-19,0000908255,1880
+BXP,Boston Properties,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2006-04-03,0001037540,1970
+BSX,Boston Scientific,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts[4]",1995-02-24,0000885725,1979
+BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000014272,1989
+AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2014-05-08,0001730168,1961
+BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Lake Success, New York",2018-06-18,0001383312,1962
+BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Louisville, Kentucky",1982-10-31,0000014693,1870
+CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Eden Prairie, Minnesota",2007-03-02,0001043277,1905
+COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2008-06-23,0000858470,1989
+CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",2017-09-18,0000813672,1988
+CPB,Campbell Soup,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Camden, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000016732,1869
+COF,Capital One Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",1998-07-01,0000927628,1935
+CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Dublin, Ohio",1997-05-27,0000721371,1971
+KMX,Carmax Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Richmond, Virginia",2010-06-28,0001170010,1993
+CCL,Carnival Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",1998-12-22,0000815097,1972
+CARR,Carrier Global,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Palm Beach Gardens, Florida",2020-04-03,0001783180,2020 (1915)
+CTLT,Catalent,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Somerset, New Jersey",2020-09-21,0001596783,2007
+CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Deerfield, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000018230,1925
+CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2017-03-01,0001374310,1973
+CBRE,CBRE Group,reports,Real Estate,Real Estate Services,"Dallas, Texas",2006-11-10,0001138118,1906
+CDW,CDW,reports,Information Technology,Technology Distributors,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-09-23,0001402057,1984
+CE,Celanese,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Irving, Texas",2018-12-24,0001306830,1918
+CNC,Centene Corporation,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"St. Louis, Missouri",2016-03-30,0001071739,1984
+CNP,CenterPoint Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Houston, Texas",1985-07-31,0001130310,1882
+CERN,Cerner,reports,Health Care,Health Care Technology,"North Kansas City, Missouri",2010-04-30,0000804753,1979
+CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Deerfield, Illinois",2008-08-27,0001324404,1946
+SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"Westlake, Texas",1997-06-02,0000316709,1971
+CHTR,Charter Communications,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Stamford, Connecticut",2016-09-08,0001091667,1993
+CVX,Chevron Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"San Ramon, California",1957-03-04,0000093410,1879
+CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Newport Beach, California",2011-04-28,0001058090,1993
+CB,Chubb Limited,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Zurich, Switzerland",2010-07-15,0000896159,1985
+CHD,Church & Dwight,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Ewing, New Jersey",2015-12-29,0000313927,1847
+CI,Cigna,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Bloomfield, Connecticut",1976-06-30,0001739940,1982
+CINF,Cincinnati Financial,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Fairfield, Ohio",1997-12-18,0000020286,1950
+CTAS,Cintas Corporation,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Mason, Ohio",2001-03-01,0000723254,1929
+CSCO,Cisco Systems,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"San Jose, California",1993-12-01,0000858877,1984
+C,Citigroup Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1988-05-31,0000831001,1998
+CFG,Citizens Financial Group,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Providence, Rhode Island",2016-01-29,0000759944,1828
+CTXS,Citrix Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Fort Lauderdale, Florida",1999-12-01,0000877890,1989
+CLX,The Clorox Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Oakland, California",1969-03-31,0000021076,1913
+CME,CME Group Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2006-08-11,0001156375,1848
+CMS,CMS Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Jackson, Michigan",1999-05-03,0000811156,1886
+KO,Coca-Cola Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000021344,1886
+CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Teaneck, New Jersey",2006-11-17,0001058290,1994
+CL,Colgate-Palmolive,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000021665,1806
+CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2002-11-19,0001166691,1963
+CMA,Comerica Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Dallas, Texas",1995-12-01,0000028412,1849
+CAG,Conagra Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",1983-08-31,0000023217,1919
+COP,ConocoPhillips,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0001163165,2002
+ED,Consolidated Edison,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New York, New York",,0001047862,1823
+STZ,Constellation Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Victor, New York",2005-07-01,0000016918,1945
+COO,The Cooper Companies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Ramon, California",2016-09-23,0000711404,1958
+CPRT,Copart Inc,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Dallas, Texas",2018-07-02,0000900075,1982
+GLW,Corning Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Corning, New York",,0000024741,1851
+CTVA,Corteva,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-06-03,0001755672,2019
+COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Issaquah, Washington",1993-10-01,0000909832,1976
+CCI,Crown Castle,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Houston, Texas",2012-03-14,0001051470,1994
+CSX,CSX Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Jacksonville, Florida",1967-09-30,0000277948,1980
+CMI,Cummins Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Columbus, Indiana",1965-03-31,0000026172,1919
+CVS,CVS Health,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Woonsocket, Rhode Island",1957-03-04,0000064803,1996
+DHI,D. R. Horton,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Arlington, Texas",2005-06-22,0000882184,1978
+DHR,Danaher Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Washington, D.C.",,0000313616,1969
+DRI,Darden Restaurants,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Orlando, Florida",,0000940944,1938
+DVA,DaVita Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Denver, Colorado",2008-07-31,0000927066,1979
+DE,Deere & Co.,reports,Industrials,Agricultural & Farm Machinery,"Moline, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000315189,1837
+DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Atlanta, Georgia",2013-09-11,0000027904,1929
+XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2008-11-14,0000818479,2016 (1969)
+DVN,Devon Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2000-08-30,0001090012,1971
+DXCM,DexCom,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2020-05-12,0001093557,1999
+FANG,Diamondback Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Midland, Texas",2018-12-03,0001539838,2007
+DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Austin, Texas",2016-05-18,0001297996,2004
+DFS,Discover Financial Services,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Riverwoods, Illinois",2007-07-02,0001393612,1985
+DISCA,"Discovery, Inc. (Series A)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2010-03-01,0001437107,1985
+DISCK,"Discovery, Inc. (Series C)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2014-08-07,0001437107,1985
+DISH,Dish Network,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Meridian, Colorado",2017-03-13,0001001082,1980
+DG,Dollar General,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Goodlettsville, Tennessee",2012-12-03,0000029534,1939
+DLTR,Dollar Tree,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Chesapeake, Virginia",2011-12-19,0000935703,1986
+D,Dominion Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Richmond, Virginia",,0000715957,1983
+DPZ,Domino's Pizza,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Ann Arbor, Michigan",2020-05-12,0001286681,1960
+DOV,Dover Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Downers Grove, Illinois",1985-10-31,0000029905,1955
+DOW,Dow Inc.,reports,Materials,Commodity Chemicals,"Midland, Michigan",2019-04-01,0001751788,2019
+DTE,DTE Energy Co.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Detroit, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000936340,1995
+DUK,Duke Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0001326160,1904
+DRE,Duke Realty Corp,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2017-07-26,0000783280,1972
+DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-04-02,0001666700,2017
+DXC,DXC Technology,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-04-04,0001688568,2017
+EMN,Eastman Chemical,reports,Materials,Diversified Chemicals,"Kingsport, Tennessee",1994-01-01,0000915389,1920
+ETN,Eaton Corporation,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",,0001551182,1911
+EBAY,eBay Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"San Jose, California",2002-07-22,0001065088,1995
+ECL,Ecolab Inc.,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1989-01-31,0000031462,1923
+EIX,Edison Int'l,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Rosemead, California",1957-03-04,0000827052,1886
+EW,Edwards Lifesciences,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Irvine, California",2011-04-01,0001099800,1958
+EA,Electronic Arts,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Redwood City, California",2002-07-22,0000712515,1982
+EMR,Emerson Electric Company,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Ferguson, Missouri",1965-03-31,0000032604,1890
+ENPH,Enphase Energy,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Fremont, California",2021-01-07,0001463101,2006
+ETR,Entergy Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New Orleans, Louisiana",1957-03-04,0000065984,1913
+EOG,EOG Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2000-11-02,0000821189,1999
+EFX,Equifax Inc.,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",1997-06-19,0000033185,1899
+EQIX,Equinix,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Redwood City, California",2015-03-20,0001101239,1998
+EQR,Equity Residential,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2001-12-03,0000906107,1969
+ESS,"Essex Property Trust, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"San Mateo, California",2014-04-02,0000920522,1971
+EL,Estée Lauder Companies,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"New York, New York",2006-01-05,0001001250,1946
+ETSY,Etsy,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Brooklyn, New York",2020-09-21,0001370637,2005
+EVRG,Evergy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Kansas City, Missouri",2018-06-05,0001711269,1909
+ES,Eversource Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Hartford, Connecticut",,0000072741,1966
+RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,reports,Financials,Reinsurance,"Hamilton, Bermuda",2017-06-19,0001095073,1973
+EXC,Exelon Corp.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0001109357,2000
+EXPE,Expedia Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-02,0001324424,1996
+EXPD,Expeditors,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-10,0000746515,1979
+EXR,Extra Space Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2016-01-19,0001289490,1977
+XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000034088,1999
+FFIV,F5 Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Seattle, Washington",2010-12-20,0001048695,1996
+FB,"Facebook, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Menlo Park, California",2013-12-23,0001326801,2004
+FAST,Fastenal Co,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Winona, Minnesota",2008-09-15,0000815556,1967
+FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Rockville, Maryland",2016-02-01,0000034903,1962
+FDX,FedEx Corporation,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Memphis, Tennessee",1980-12-31,0001048911,1971
+FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Jacksonville, Florida",2006-11-10,0001136893,1968
+FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cincinnati, Ohio",,0000035527,1858
+FE,FirstEnergy Corp,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Akron, Ohio",,0001031296,1997
+FRC,First Republic Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"San Francisco, California",2019-01-02,0001132979,1985
+FISV,Fiserv Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Brookfield, Wisconsin",2001-04-02,0000798354,1984
+FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Norcross, Georgia",2018-06-20,0001175454,2000
+FLIR,FLIR Systems,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Wilsonville, Oregon",2009-01-02,0000354908,1978
+FLS,Flowserve Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Irving, Texas",2008-10-02,0000030625,1997
+FMC,FMC Corporation,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2009-08-19,0000037785,1883
+F,Ford Motor Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Dearborn, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000037996,1903
+FTNT,Fortinet,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Sunnyvale, California",2018-10-11,0001262039,2000
+FTV,Fortive Corp,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Everett, Washington",2016-07-01,0001659166,2016
+FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Deerfield, Illinois",2016-06-22,0001519751,2011 (1969)
+FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2013-07-01,0001754301,2019
+FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001754301,2019
+BEN,Franklin Resources,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"San Mateo, California",,0000038777,1947
+FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,reports,Materials,Copper,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000831259,1912
+GPS,Gap Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"San Francisco, California",1986-08-31,0000039911,1969
+GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Consumer Electronics,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2012-12-12,0001121788,1989
+IT,Gartner Inc,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Stamford, Connecticut",2017-04-05,0000749251,1979
+GD,General Dynamics,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Falls Church, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000040533,1899
+GE,General Electric,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000040545,1892
+GIS,General Mills,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Golden Valley, Minnesota",1969-03-31,0000040704,1856
+GM,General Motors,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Detroit, Michigan",2013-06-06,0001467858,1908
+GPC,Genuine Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Atlanta, Georgia",1973-12-31,0000040987,1925
+GILD,Gilead Sciences,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Foster City, California",2004-07-01,0000882095,1987
+GL,Globe Life Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"McKinney, Texas",1989-04-30,0000320335,1900
+GPN,Global Payments Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2016-04-25,0001123360,2000
+GS,Goldman Sachs Group,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",2002-07-22,0000886982,1869
+GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",1981-06-30,0000277135,1927
+HAL,Halliburton Co.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0000045012,1919
+HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Winston-Salem, North Carolina",2015-03-20,0001359841,2000
+HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Hartford, Connecticut",1957-03-04,0000874766,1810
+HAS,Hasbro Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Leisure Products,"Pawtucket, Rhode Island",1984-09-30,0000046080,1923
+HCA,HCA Healthcare,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Nashville, Tennessee",2015-01-27,0000860730,1968
+PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Long Beach, California",2008-03-31,0000765880,1985
+HSIC,Henry Schein,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Melville, New York",2015-03-17,0001000228,1932
+HSY,The Hershey Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hershey, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000047111,1894
+HES,Hess Corporation,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"New York, New York",1984-05-31,0000004447,1919
+HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Houston, Texas",2015-11-02,0001645590,2015
+HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-06-19,0001585689,1919
+HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Dallas, Texas",2018-06-18,0000048039,1947
+HOLX,Hologic,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts",2016-03-30,0000859737,1985
+HD,Home Depot,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Atlanta, Georgia",1988-03-31,0000354950,1978
+HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Morristown, New Jersey",1964-03-31,0000773840,1906
+HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Austin, Minnesota",2009-03-04,0000048465,1891
+HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,reports,Real Estate,Hotel & Resort REITs,"Bethesda, Maryland",2007-03-20,0001070750,1993
+HWM,Howmet Aerospace,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1964-03-31,0000004281,2016
+HPQ,HP Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Palo Alto, California",1974-12-31,0000047217,1939 (2015)
+HUM,Humana Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Louisville, Kentucky",,0000049071,1961
+HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Columbus, Ohio",,0000049196,1866
+HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Newport News, Virginia",2018-01-03,0001501585,2011
+IEX,IDEX Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2019-08-09,0000832101,1988
+IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Westbrook, Maine",2017-01-05,0000874716,1983
+INFO,IHS Markit,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"London, United Kingdom",2017-06-02,0001598014,1959
+ITW,Illinois Tool Works,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Glenview, Illinois",1986-02-28,0000049826,1912
+ILMN,Illumina Inc,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"San Diego, California",2015-11-19,0001110803,1998
+INCY,Incyte,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Wilmington, Delaware",2017-02-28,0000879169,1991
+IR,Ingersoll Rand,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2020-03-03,0001699150,1859
+INTC,Intel Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",1976-12-31,0000050863,1968
+ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Atlanta, Georgia",2007-09-26,0001571949,2000
+IBM,International Business Machines,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Armonk, New York",1957-03-04,0000051143,1911
+IP,International Paper,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Memphis, Tennessee",1957-03-04,0000051434,1898
+IPG,Interpublic Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",1992-10-01,0000051644,1961 (1930)
+IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"New York, New York",1976-03-31,0000051253,1958 (1889)
+INTU,Intuit Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2000-12-05,0000896878,1983
+ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2008-06-02,0001035267,1995
+IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Atlanta, Georgia",2008-08-21,0000914208,1935
+IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Oxford, Massachusetts",2018-03-07,0001111928,1990
+IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Durham, North Carolina",2017-08-29,0001478242,1982
+IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2009-01-06,0001020569,1951
+JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Monett, Missouri",2018-11-13,0000779152,1976
+J,Jacobs Engineering Group,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Dallas, Texas",2007-10-26,0000052988,1947
+JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Lowell, Arkansas",2015-07-01,0000728535,1961
+SJM,JM Smucker,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Orrville, Ohio",2008-11-06,0000091419,1897
+JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New Brunswick, New Jersey",1973-06-30,0000200406,1886
+JCI,Johnson Controls International,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Cork, Ireland",2010-08-27,0000833444,1885
+JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1975-06-30,0000019617,2000 (1799 / 1871)
+JNPR,Juniper Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2006-06-02,0001043604,1996
+KSU,Kansas City Southern,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Kansas City, Missouri",2013-05-24,0000054480,1887
+K,Kellogg Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Battle Creek, Michigan",,0000055067,1906
+KEY,KeyCorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cleveland, Ohio",1994-03-01,0000091576,1825
+KEYS,Keysight Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Santa Rosa, California",2018-11-06,0001601046,2014
+KMB,Kimberly-Clark,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000055785,1872
+KIM,Kimco Realty,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"New Hyde Park, New York",2006-04-04,0000879101,1958
+KMI,Kinder Morgan,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-25,0001506307,1997
+KLAC,KLA Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Milpitas, California",,0000319201,1975/1977 (1997)
+KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2015-07-06,0001637459,2015 (1869)
+KR,Kroger Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Retail,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000056873,1883
+LB,L Brands Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Columbus, Ohio",1983-09-30,0000701985,1963
+LHX,L3Harris Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Melbourne, Florida",2008-09-22,0000202058,2019 (1895)
+LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Burlington, North Carolina",2004-11-01,0000920148,1978
+LRCX,Lam Research,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Fremont, California",2012-06-29,0000707549,1980
+LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Eagle, Idaho",2018-12-03,0001679273,2016 (1950)
+LVS,Las Vegas Sands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Las Vegas, Nevada",2019-10-03,0001300514,1988
+LEG,Leggett & Platt,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Carthage, Missouri",,0000058492,1883
+LDOS,Leidos Holdings,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Reston, Virginia",2019-08-09,0001336920,1969
+LEN,Lennar Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Miami, Florida",2005-10-04,0000920760,1954
+LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Indianapolis, Indiana",1970-12-31,0000059478,1876
+LNC,Lincoln National,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"Radnor, Pennsylvania",1976-06-30,0000059558,1905
+LIN,Linde plc,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom",1992-07-01,0001707925,1879
+LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Beverly Hills, California",2019-12-23,0001335258,2010
+LKQ,LKQ Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Chicago, Illinois",2016-05-23,0001065696,1998
+LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Bethesda, Maryland",1984-07-31,0000936468,1995
+L,Loews Corp.,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",,0000060086,1959
+LOW,Lowe's Cos.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Mooresville, North Carolina",1984-02-29,0000060667,1904/1946/1959
+LUMN,Lumen Technologies,reports,Communication Services,Alternative Carriers,"Monroe, Louisiana",1999-03-25,0000018926,1983 (1877)
+LYB,LyondellBasell,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Rotterdam, Netherlands",2012-09-05,0001489393,2007
+MTB,M&T Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Buffalo, New York",2004-02-23,0000036270,1856
+MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1991-05-01,0000101778,1887
+MPC,Marathon Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Findlay, Ohio",2011-07-01,0001510295,2009 (1887)
+MKTX,MarketAxess,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2019-07-01,0001278021,2000
+MAR,Marriott International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Bethesda, Maryland",,0001048286,1927
+MMC,Marsh & McLennan,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"New York, New York",1987-08-31,0000062709,1905
+MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2014-07-02,0000916076,1993
+MAS,Masco Corp.,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Livonia, Michigan",1981-06-30,0000062996,1929
+MA,Mastercard Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Harrison, New York",2008-07-18,0001141391,1966
+MKC,McCormick & Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hunt Valley, Maryland",,0000063754,1889
+MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2018-12-03,0000743316,1983
+MCD,McDonald's Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Chicago, Illinois",1970-06-30,0000063908,1940
+MCK,McKesson Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Irving, Texas",,0000927653,1833
+MDT,Medtronic plc,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",1986-10-31,0001613103,1949
+MRK,Merck & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Kenilworth, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000310158,1891
+MET,MetLife Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"New York, New York",,0001099219,1868
+MTD,Mettler Toledo,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Columbus, Ohio",2016-09-06,0001037646,1945
+MGM,MGM Resorts International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2017-07-26,0000789570,1986
+MCHP,Microchip Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Chandler, Arizona",2007-09-07,0000827054,1989
+MU,Micron Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Boise, Idaho",1994-09-27,0000723125,1978
+MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Redmond, Washington",1994-06-01,0000789019,1975
+MAA,Mid-America Apartments,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Memphis, Tennessee",2016-12-02,0000912595,1977
+MHK,Mohawk Industries,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Calhoun, Georgia",2013-12-23,0000851968,1878
+TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Brewers,"Denver, Colorado",1976-06-30,0000024545,"2005 (Molson 1786, Coors 1873)"
+MDLZ,Mondelez International,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",2012-10-02,0001103982,2012
+MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Kirkland, Washington",2021-02-12,0001280452,1997
+MNST,Monster Beverage,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Corona, California",2012-06-28,0000865752,2012 (1935)
+MCO,Moody's Corp,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0001059556,1909
+MS,Morgan Stanley,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",,0000895421,1935
+MOS,The Mosaic Company,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Tampa, Florida",2011-09-26,0001285785,2004 (1865 / 1909)
+MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000068505,1928 (2011)
+MSCI,MSCI Inc,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2018-04-04,0001408198,1969
+NDAQ,"Nasdaq, Inc.",reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2008-10-22,0001120193,1971
+NTAP,NetApp,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Sunnyvale, California",1999-06-25,0001002047,1992
+NFLX,Netflix Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Los Gatos, California",2010-12-20,0001065280,1997
+NWL,Newell Brands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Housewares & Specialties,"Atlanta, Georgia",1989-04-30,0000814453,1903
+NEM,Newmont Corporation,reports,Materials,Gold,"Denver, Colorado",1969-06-30,0001164727,1921
+NWSA,News Corp (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2013-08-01,0001564708,2013 (1980)
+NWS,News Corp (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001564708,2013 (1980)
+NEE,NextEra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Juno Beach, Florida",1976-06-30,0000753308,1984 (1925)
+NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"New York, New York",2013-07-09,0001492633,1923
+NKE,"Nike, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Washington County, Oregon",1988-11-30,0000320187,1964
+NI,NiSource Inc.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Merrillville, Indiana",,0001111711,1912
+NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Norfolk, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000702165,1881/1894 (1980)
+NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000073124,1889
+NOC,Northrop Grumman,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"West Falls Church, Virginia",1985-06-30,0001133421,"1994 (Northrop 1939, Grumman 1930)"
+NLOK,NortonLifeLock,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Tempe, Arizona",2003-03-25,0000849399,1982
+NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2017-10-13,0001513761,2011 (1966)
+NOV,NOV Inc.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2005-03-14,0001021860,1841
+NRG,NRG Energy,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Princeton, New Jersey",2010-01-29,0001013871,1992
+NUE,Nucor Corp.,reports,Materials,Steel,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1985-04-30,0000073309,1940
+NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2001-11-30,0001045810,1993
+NVR,"NVR, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Reston, Virginia",2019-09-26,0000906163,1980
+ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Springfield, Missouri",2009-03-27,0000898173,1957
+OXY,Occidental Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1982-12-31,0000797468,1920
+ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Thomasville, North Carolina",2019-12-09,0000878927,1934
+OMC,Omnicom Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",,0000029989,1986
+OKE,Oneok,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",2010-03-15,0001039684,1906
+ORCL,Oracle Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Austin, Texas",1989-08-31,0001341439,1977
+OTIS,Otis Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Farmington, Connecticut",2020-04-03,0001781335,2020 (1853)
+PCAR,Paccar,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Bellevue, Washington",1980-12-31,0000075362,1905
+PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2017-07-26,0000075677,1959
+PH,Parker-Hannifin,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Cleveland, Ohio",1985-11-30,0000076334,1917
+PAYX,Paychex Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Penfield, New York",,0000723531,1971
+PAYC,Paycom,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2020-01-28,0001590955,1998
+PYPL,PayPal,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Jose, California",2015-07-20,0001633917,1998
+PNR,Pentair plc,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Worsley, UK",2012-10-01,0000077360,1966
+PBCT,People's United Financial,reports,Financials,Thrifts & Mortgage Finance,"Bridgeport, Connecticut",2008-11-13,0001378946,1842
+PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Purchase, New York",1957-03-04,0000077476,1898
+PKI,PerkinElmer,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Waltham, Massachusetts",1985-05-31,0000031791,1937
+PRGO,Perrigo,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-12-19,0001585364,2013 (1887)
+PFE,Pfizer Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000078003,1849
+PM,Philip Morris International,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"New York, New York",2008-03-31,0001413329,2008 (1847)
+PSX,Phillips 66,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-01,0001534701,2012 (1917)
+PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000764622,1985
+PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Irving, Texas",2008-09-24,0001038357,1997
+PNC,PNC Financial Services,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1988-04-30,0000713676,1845
+POOL,Pool Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Covington, Louisiana",2020-10-07,0000945841,1993
+PPG,PPG Industries,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000079879,1883
+PPL,PPL Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",,0000922224,1920
+PFG,Principal Financial Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Des Moines, Iowa",2002-07-22,0001126328,1879
+PG,Procter & Gamble,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000080424,1837
+PGR,Progressive Corp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Mayfield Village, Ohio",1997-08-04,0000080661,1937
+PLD,Prologis,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"San Francisco, California",2003-07-17,0001045609,1983
+PRU,Prudential Financial,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Newark, New Jersey",2002-07-22,0001137774,1875
+PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Newark, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000788784,1903
+PSA,Public Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Glendale, California",2005-08-19,0001393311,1972
+PHM,PulteGroup,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Atlanta, Georgia",1984-04-30,0000822416,1956
+PVH,PVH Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2013-02-15,0000078239,1881
+QRVO,Qorvo,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Greensboro, North Carolina",2015-06-11,0001604778,2015
+PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Houston, Texas",2009-07-01,0001050915,1997
+QCOM,Qualcomm,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Diego, California",,0000804328,1985
+DGX,Quest Diagnostics,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Secaucus, New Jersey",2002-12-12,0001022079,1967
+RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2007-02-02,0001037038,1967
+RJF,Raymond James Financial,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"St. Petersburg, Florida",2017-03-20,0000720005,1962
+RTX,Raytheon Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Waltham, Massachusetts",,0000101829,1922
+O,Realty Income Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"San Diego, California",2015-04-07,0000726728,1969
+REG,Regency Centers Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Jacksonville, Florida",2017-03-02,0000910606,1963
+REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Tarrytown, New York",2013-05-01,0000872589,1988
+RF,Regions Financial Corp.,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Birmingham, Alabama",1998-08-28,0001281761,1971
+RSG,Republic Services Inc,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Phoenix, Arizona",2008-12-05,0001060391,1998 (1981)
+RMD,ResMed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2017-07-26,0000943819,1989
+RHI,Robert Half International,reports,Industrials,Human Resource & Employment Services,"Menlo Park, California",2000-12-05,0000315213,1948
+ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",,0001024478,1903
+ROL,"Rollins, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2018-10-01,0000084839,1948
+ROP,Roper Technologies,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Sarasota, Florida",2009-12-23,0000882835,1981
+ROST,Ross Stores,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Dublin, California",2009-12-21,0000745732,1982
+RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2014-12-05,0000884887,1997
+SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0000064040,1917
+CRM,Salesforce.com,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Francisco, California",2008-09-15,0001108524,1999
+SBAC,SBA Communications,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boca Raton, Florida",2017-09-01,0001034054,1989
+SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands",1965-03-31,0000087347,1926
+STX,Seagate Technology,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Dublin, Ireland",2012-07-02,0001137789,1979
+SEE,Sealed Air,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1957-03-04,0001012100,1960
+SRE,Sempra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"San Diego, California",,0001032208,1998
+NOW,ServiceNow,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Santa Clara, California",2019-11-21,0001373715,2003
+SHW,Sherwin-Williams,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Cleveland, Ohio",1964-06-30,0000089800,1866
+SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-06-26,0001063761,2003
+SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Woburn, Massachusetts",2015-03-12,0000004127,2002
+SLG,SL Green Realty,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",2015-03-20,0001040971,1997
+SNA,Snap-on,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Kenosha, Wisconsin",1982-09-30,0000091440,1920
+SO,Southern Company,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000092122,1945
+LUV,Southwest Airlines,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Dallas, Texas",1994-07-01,0000092380,1967
+SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"New Britain, Connecticut",1982-09-30,0000093556,1843
+SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Seattle, Washington",,0000829224,1971
+STT,State Street Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000093751,1792
+STE,Steris,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2019-12-23,0001757898,1985
+SYK,Stryker Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Kalamazoo, Michigan",2000-12-12,0000310764,1941
+SIVB,SVB Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Santa Clara, California",2018-03-19,0000719739,1983
+SYF,Synchrony Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Stamford, Connecticut",2015-11-18,0001601712,2003
+SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2017-03-16,0000883241,1986
+SYY,Sysco Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Distributors,"Houston, Texas",1986-12-31,0000096021,1969
+TMUS,T-Mobile US,reports,Communication Services,Wireless Telecommunication Services,"Bellevue, Washington",2019-07-15,0001283699,1994
+TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Baltimore, Maryland",,0001113169,1937
+TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"New York, New York",2018-03-19,0000946581,1993
+TPR,"Tapestry, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",,0001116132,2017
+TGT,Target Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1976-12-31,0000027419,1902
+TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2011-10-17,0001385157,2007
+TDY,Teledyne Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Thousand Oaks, California",2020-06-22,0001094285,1960
+TFX,Teleflex,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Wayne, Pennsylvania",2019-01-18,0000096943,1943
+TER,Teradyne,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"North Reading, Massachusetts",2020-09-21,0000097210,1960
+TSLA,"Tesla, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Palo Alto, California",2020-12-21,0001318605,2003
+TXN,Texas Instruments,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Dallas, Texas",,0000097476,1930
+TXT,Textron Inc.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Providence, Rhode Island",1978-12-31,0000217346,1923
+TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Waltham, Massachusetts",2004-08-03,0000097745,2006 (1902)
+TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Framingham, Massachusetts",1985-09-30,0000109198,1987
+TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Brentwood, Tennessee",2014-01-24,0000916365,1938
+TT,Trane Technologies plc,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2010-11-17,0001466258,1871
+TDG,TransDigm Group,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Cleveland, Ohio",2016-06-03,0001260221,1993
+TRV,The Travelers Companies,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",2002-08-21,0000086312,1853
+TRMB,Trimble Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Sunnyvale, California",2021-01-21,0000864749,1978
+TFC,Truist Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1997-12-04,0000092230,1872
+TWTR,"Twitter, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"San Francisco, California",2018-06-07,0001418091,2006
+TYL,Tyler Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Plano, Texas",2020-06-22,0000860731,1966
+TSN,Tyson Foods,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Springdale, Arkansas",,0000100493,1935
+UDR,"UDR, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Highlands Ranch, Colorado",2016-03-07,0000074208,1972
+ULTA,Ulta Beauty,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Bolingbrook, Illinois",2016-04-18,0001403568,1990
+USB,U.S. Bancorp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",,0000036104,1968
+UAA,Under Armour (Class A),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2014-05-01,0001336917,1996
+UA,Under Armour (Class C),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2016-04-08,0001336917,1996
+UNP,Union Pacific Corp,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Omaha, Nebraska",1957-03-04,0000100885,1862
+UAL,United Airlines Holdings,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Chicago, Illinois",2015-09-03,0000100517,1967
+UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Minnetonka, Minnesota",1994-07-01,0000731766,1977
+UPS,United Parcel Service,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Atlanta, Georgia",2002-07-22,0001090727,1907
+URI,"United Rentals, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Trading Companies & Distributors,"Stamford, Connecticut",2014-09-20,0001067701,1997
+UHS,Universal Health Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"King of Prussia, Pennsylvania",2014-09-20,0000352915,1979
+UNM,Unum Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Chattanooga, Tennessee",1994-03-01,0000005513,1999
+VLO,Valero Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"San Antonio, Texas",,0001035002,1980
+VAR,Varian Medical Systems,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Palo Alto, California",2007-02-12,0000203527,1948
+VTR,Ventas Inc,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2009-03-04,0000740260,1998
+VRSN,Verisign Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Dulles, Virginia",2006-02-01,0001014473,1995
+VRSK,Verisk Analytics,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Jersey City, New Jersey",2015-10-08,0001442145,1971
+VZ,Verizon Communications,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"New York, New York",1983-11-30,0000732712,1983 (1877)
+VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2013-09-23,0000875320,1989
+VFC,VF Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Denver, Colorado",1979-06-30,0000103379,1899
+VIAC,ViacomCBS,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",,0000813828,2019 (1952)
+VTRS,Viatris,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2004-04-23,0001792044,1961
+V,Visa Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Francisco, California",2009-12-21,0001403161,1958
+VNT,Vontier,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2020-10-09,0001786842,2019
+VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",,0000899689,1982
+VMC,Vulcan Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Birmingham, Alabama",1999-06-30,0001396009,1909
+WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Greenwich, Connecticut",2019-12-05,0000011544,1967
+WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Wilmerding, Pennsylvania",2019-02-27,0000943452,1999 (1869)
+WMT,Walmart,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Bentonville, Arkansas",1982-08-31,0000104169,1962
+WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,reports,Consumer Staples,Drug Retail,"Deerfield, Illinois",1979-12-31,0001618921,2014
+DIS,The Walt Disney Company,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Burbank, California",1976-06-30,0001744489,1923
+WM,Waste Management Inc.,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Houston, Texas",,0000823768,1968
+WAT,Waters Corporation,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Milford, Massachusetts",,0001000697,1958
+WEC,WEC Energy Group,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2008-10-31,0000783325,1896
+WFC,Wells Fargo,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"San Francisco, California",1976-06-30,0000072971,1852
+WELL,Welltower Inc.,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Toledo, Ohio",2009-01-30,0000766704,1970
+WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Exton, Pennsylvania",2020-05-22,0000105770,1923
+WDC,Western Digital,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","San Jose, California",2009-07-01,0000106040,1970
+WU,Western Union Co,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Englewood, Colorado",2006-09-29,0001365135,1851
+WRK,WestRock,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Atlanta, Georgia",,0001732845,2015
+WY,Weyerhaeuser,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Federal Way, Washington",,0000106535,1900
+WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Household Appliances,"Benton Harbor, Michigan",,0000106640,1911
+WMB,Williams Companies,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",1975-03-31,0000107263,1908
+WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",2016-01-05,0001140536,2016
+WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2008-11-14,0001174922,2002
+XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1957-03-04,0000072903,1909
+XRX,Xerox,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Norwalk, Connecticut",,0001770450,2017 (1906)
+XLNX,Xilinx,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",1999-11-08,0000743988,1984
+XYL,Xylem Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"White Plains, New York",2011-11-01,0001524472,2011
+YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Louisville, Kentucky",1997-10-06,0001041061,1997
+ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-12-23,0000877212,1969
+ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Warsaw, Indiana",2001-08-07,0001136869,1927
+ZION,Zions Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2001-06-22,0000109380,1873
+ZTS,Zoetis,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Parsippany, New Jersey",2013-06-21,0001555280,1952
+
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/README.md b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/README.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f50d6d1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/README.md
@@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
+List of companies in the S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500). The S&P 500 is a
+free-float, capitalization-weighted index of the top 500 publicly listed stocks
+in the US (top 500 by market cap). The dataset includes a list of all the
+stocks contained therein.
+
+## Data
+
+Information on S&P 500 index used to be available on the [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home]
+but until they publish it back, Wikipedia is the best up-to-date and open data source.
+
+* Index listing - see extracted from Wikipedia's [SP500 list of companies][sp-list].
+
+### Sources
+
+Detailed information on the S&P 500 (primarily in XLS format) used to be obtained
+from its [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home] - it was
+free but registration was required.
+* Index listing - see
+ * used to be extracted from [source Excel file on S&P website][sp-listing-dec-2014] but this no longer contains a list of constituents. (Note this Excel was actually S&P 500 EPS estimates but on sheet 4 it used to have a list of members - [previous file][sp-listing] was just members but that 404s as of Dec 2014) (Note: but note you have to register and login to access - no longer true as of August 2013)
+* Historical performance ([source xls on S&P website][sp-historical])
+
+[sp-home]: http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500
+[sp-list]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
+[sp-listing-dec-2014]: http://www.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true
+[sp-listing]: http://us.spindices.com/idsexport/file.xls?hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&selectedModule=Constituents&selectedSubModule=ConstituentsFullList&indexId=340
+[sp-historical]: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/spf/docs/indices/SPUSA-500-USDUF--P-US-L--HistoricalData.xls
+
+*Note*: for aggregate information on the S&P (dividends, earnings, etc.) see
+[Standard and Poor's 500 Dataset][shiller].
+
+[shiller]: http://data.okfn.org/data/s-and-p-500
+
+### General Financial Notes
+
+Publicly listed US companies are obliged various reports on a regular basis
+with the SEC. Of these 2 types are of especial interest to investors and others
+interested in their finances and business. These are:
+
+* 10-K = Annual Report
+* 10-Q = Quarterly report
+
+## Preparation
+
+You can run the script yourself to update the data and publish them to GitHub : see [scripts README](https://github.com/datasets/s-and-p-500-companies/blob/master/scripts/README.md).
+
+## License
+
+All data is licensed under the [Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and
+License][pddl]. All code is licensed under the MIT/BSD license.
+
+Note that while no credit is formally required a link back or credit to [Rufus
+Pollock][rp] and the [Open Knowledge Foundation][okfn] is much appreciated.
+
+[pddl]: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/pddl/1.0/
+[rp]: http://rufuspollock.com/
+[okfn]: http://okfn.org/
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/archive/constituents.csv b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/archive/constituents.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4d39bd7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/archive/constituents.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,506 @@
+Symbol,Name,Sector
+MMM,3M Company,Industrials
+AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
+ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
+ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
+ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
+ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
+ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
+ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
+AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
+AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
+AES,AES Corp,Utilities
+AFL,Aflac,Financials
+A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
+APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
+AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
+ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
+ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
+ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
+ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
+ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
+ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
+LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
+ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
+GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
+GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
+MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
+AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
+AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
+AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
+AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
+AXP,American Express,Financials
+AIG,American International Group,Financials
+AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
+AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
+AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
+ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
+AME,Ametek,Industrials
+AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
+APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
+ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
+ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
+ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
+AON,Aon plc,Financials
+APA,APA Corporation,Energy
+AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
+AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
+APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
+ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
+ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
+AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
+AIZ,Assurant,Financials
+T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
+ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
+ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
+ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
+AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
+AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
+BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
+BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
+BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
+BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
+BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
+BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
+BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
+BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
+BLK,BlackRock,Financials
+BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
+BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
+BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
+BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
+BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
+AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
+BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
+BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
+CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
+COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
+CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
+CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
+COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
+CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
+KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
+CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
+CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
+CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
+CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
+CDW,CDW,Information Technology
+CE,Celanese,Materials
+CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
+CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
+CERN,Cerner,Health Care
+CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
+SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
+CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
+CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
+CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
+CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
+CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
+CI,Cigna,Health Care
+CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
+CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
+CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
+C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
+CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
+CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
+CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
+CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
+KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
+CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
+CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
+CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
+CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
+CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
+COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
+ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
+STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
+CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
+GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
+CTVA,Corteva,Materials
+COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
+CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
+CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
+CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
+CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
+DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
+DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
+DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
+DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
+DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
+DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
+XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
+DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
+DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
+FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
+DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
+DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
+DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
+DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
+DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
+DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
+DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
+D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
+DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
+DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
+DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
+DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
+DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
+DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
+DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
+DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
+EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
+ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
+EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
+EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
+EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
+EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
+EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
+ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
+ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
+EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
+EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
+EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
+EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
+ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
+EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
+ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
+RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
+EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
+ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
+EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
+EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
+EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
+EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
+XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
+FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
+FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
+FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
+FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
+FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
+FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
+FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
+FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
+FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
+FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
+FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
+FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
+FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
+FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
+F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
+FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
+FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
+FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
+FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
+FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
+BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
+FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
+GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
+IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
+GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
+GE,General Electric,Industrials
+GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
+GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
+GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
+GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
+GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
+GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
+GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
+GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
+HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
+HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
+HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
+PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
+HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
+HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
+HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
+HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
+HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
+HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
+HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
+HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
+HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
+HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
+HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
+HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
+HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
+HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
+IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
+IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
+INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
+ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
+ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
+INCY,Incyte,Health Care
+IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
+INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
+ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
+IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
+IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
+IP,International Paper,Materials
+IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
+INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
+ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
+IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
+IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
+IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
+IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
+JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
+JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
+J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
+SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
+JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
+JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
+JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
+JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
+KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
+K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
+KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
+KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
+KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
+KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
+KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
+KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
+KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
+KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
+LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
+LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
+LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
+LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
+LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
+LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
+LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
+LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
+LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
+LIN,Linde plc,Materials
+LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
+LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
+L,Loews Corp.,Financials
+LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
+LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
+LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
+MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
+MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
+MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
+MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
+MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
+MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
+MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
+MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
+MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
+MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
+MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
+MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
+MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
+MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
+MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
+MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
+MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
+MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
+MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
+MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
+MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
+MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
+TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
+MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
+MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
+MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
+MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
+MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
+MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
+MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
+NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
+NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
+NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
+NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
+NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
+NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
+NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
+NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
+NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
+NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
+NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
+NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
+NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
+NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
+NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
+NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
+NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
+NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
+NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
+NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
+OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
+ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
+OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
+OKE,Oneok,Energy
+ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
+OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
+PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
+PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
+PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
+PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
+PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
+PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
+PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
+PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
+PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
+PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
+PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
+PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
+PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
+PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
+PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
+PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
+PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
+POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
+PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
+PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
+PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
+PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
+PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
+PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
+PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
+PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
+PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
+PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
+QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
+PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
+DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
+RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
+RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
+O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
+REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
+REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
+RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
+RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
+RMD,ResMed,Health Care
+RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
+ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
+ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
+ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
+ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
+RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
+SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
+CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
+SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
+SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
+STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
+SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
+SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
+NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
+SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
+SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
+SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
+SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
+SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
+SO,Southern Company,Utilities
+LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
+SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
+SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
+STE,Steris,Health Care
+SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
+SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
+SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
+SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
+SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
+TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
+TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
+TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
+TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
+TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
+TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
+TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
+TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
+TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
+BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
+CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
+COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
+HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
+MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
+TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
+DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
+TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
+TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
+TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
+TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
+TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
+TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
+TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
+TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
+TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
+USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
+UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
+ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
+UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
+UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
+UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
+UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
+UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
+URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
+UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
+UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
+UNM,Unum Group,Financials
+VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
+VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
+VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
+VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
+VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
+VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
+VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
+VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
+VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
+V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
+VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
+VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
+VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
+WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
+WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
+WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
+WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
+WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
+WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
+WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
+WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
+WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
+WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
+WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
+WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
+WRK,WestRock,Materials
+WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
+WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
+WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
+WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
+XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
+XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
+XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
+XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
+YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
+ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
+ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
+ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_csv.csv b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_csv.csv
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fa09d4e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_csv.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,506 @@
+Symbol,Name,Sector
+MMM,3M Company,Industrials
+AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
+ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
+ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
+ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
+ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
+ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
+ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
+AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
+AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
+AES,AES Corp,Utilities
+AFL,Aflac,Financials
+A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
+APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
+AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
+ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
+ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
+ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
+ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
+ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
+ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
+LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
+ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
+GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
+GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
+MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
+AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
+AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
+AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
+AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
+AXP,American Express,Financials
+AIG,American International Group,Financials
+AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
+AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
+AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
+ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
+AME,Ametek,Industrials
+AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
+APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
+ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
+ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
+ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
+AON,Aon plc,Financials
+APA,APA Corporation,Energy
+AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
+AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
+APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
+ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
+ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
+AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
+AIZ,Assurant,Financials
+T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
+ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
+ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
+ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
+AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
+AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
+BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
+BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
+BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
+BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
+BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
+BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
+BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
+BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
+BLK,BlackRock,Financials
+BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
+BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
+BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
+BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
+BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
+AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
+BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
+BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
+CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
+COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
+CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
+CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
+COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
+CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
+KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
+CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
+CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
+CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
+CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
+CDW,CDW,Information Technology
+CE,Celanese,Materials
+CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
+CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
+CERN,Cerner,Health Care
+CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
+SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
+CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
+CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
+CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
+CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
+CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
+CI,Cigna,Health Care
+CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
+CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
+CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
+C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
+CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
+CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
+CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
+CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
+KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
+CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
+CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
+CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
+CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
+CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
+COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
+ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
+STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
+CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
+GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
+CTVA,Corteva,Materials
+COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
+CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
+CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
+CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
+CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
+DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
+DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
+DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
+DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
+DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
+DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
+XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
+DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
+DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
+FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
+DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
+DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
+DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
+DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
+DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
+DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
+DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
+D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
+DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
+DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
+DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
+DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
+DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
+DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
+DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
+DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
+EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
+ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
+EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
+EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
+EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
+EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
+EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
+ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
+ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
+EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
+EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
+EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
+EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
+ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
+EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
+ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
+RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
+EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
+ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
+EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
+EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
+EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
+EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
+XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
+FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
+FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
+FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
+FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
+FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
+FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
+FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
+FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
+FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
+FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
+FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
+FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
+FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
+FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
+F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
+FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
+FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
+FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
+FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
+FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
+BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
+FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
+GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
+IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
+GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
+GE,General Electric,Industrials
+GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
+GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
+GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
+GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
+GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
+GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
+GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
+GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
+HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
+HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
+HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
+PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
+HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
+HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
+HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
+HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
+HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
+HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
+HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
+HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
+HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
+HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
+HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
+HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
+HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
+HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
+IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
+IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
+INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
+ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
+ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
+INCY,Incyte,Health Care
+IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
+INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
+ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
+IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
+IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
+IP,International Paper,Materials
+IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
+INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
+ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
+IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
+IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
+IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
+IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
+JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
+JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
+J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
+SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
+JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
+JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
+JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
+JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
+KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
+K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
+KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
+KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
+KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
+KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
+KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
+KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
+KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
+KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
+LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
+LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
+LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
+LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
+LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
+LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
+LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
+LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
+LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
+LIN,Linde plc,Materials
+LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
+LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
+L,Loews Corp.,Financials
+LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
+LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
+LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
+MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
+MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
+MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
+MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
+MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
+MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
+MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
+MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
+MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
+MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
+MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
+MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
+MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
+MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
+MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
+MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
+MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
+MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
+MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
+MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
+MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
+MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
+TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
+MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
+MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
+MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
+MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
+MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
+MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
+MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
+NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
+NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
+NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
+NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
+NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
+NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
+NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
+NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
+NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
+NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
+NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
+NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
+NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
+NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
+NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
+NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
+NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
+NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
+NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
+NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
+OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
+ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
+OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
+OKE,Oneok,Energy
+ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
+OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
+PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
+PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
+PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
+PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
+PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
+PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
+PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
+PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
+PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
+PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
+PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
+PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
+PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
+PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
+PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
+PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
+PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
+POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
+PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
+PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
+PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
+PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
+PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
+PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
+PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
+PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
+PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
+PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
+QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
+PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
+DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
+RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
+RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
+O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
+REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
+REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
+RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
+RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
+RMD,ResMed,Health Care
+RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
+ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
+ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
+ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
+ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
+RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
+SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
+CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
+SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
+SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
+STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
+SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
+SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
+NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
+SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
+SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
+SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
+SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
+SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
+SO,Southern Company,Utilities
+LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
+SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
+SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
+STE,Steris,Health Care
+SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
+SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
+SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
+SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
+SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
+TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
+TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
+TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
+TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
+TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
+TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
+TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
+TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
+TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
+BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
+CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
+COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
+HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
+MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
+TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
+DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
+TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
+TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
+TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
+TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
+TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
+TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
+TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
+TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
+TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
+TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
+USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
+UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
+ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
+UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
+UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
+UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
+UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
+UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
+URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
+UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
+UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
+UNM,Unum Group,Financials
+VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
+VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
+VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
+VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
+VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
+VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
+VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
+VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
+VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
+VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
+V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
+VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
+VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
+VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
+WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
+WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
+WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
+WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
+WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
+WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
+WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
+WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
+WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
+WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
+WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
+WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
+WRK,WestRock,Materials
+WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
+WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
+WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
+WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
+WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
+XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
+XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
+XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
+XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
+YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
+ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
+ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
+ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
+ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_json.json b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_json.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..244b0a3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/constituents_json.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+[{"Name": "3M Company", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "MMM"},{"Name": "A.O. Smith Corp", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "AOS"},{"Name": "Abbott Laboratories", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ABT"},{"Name": "AbbVie Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ABBV"},{"Name": "Abiomed", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ABMD"},{"Name": "Accenture", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ACN"},{"Name": "Activision Blizzard", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "ATVI"},{"Name": "Adobe Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ADBE"},{"Name": "Advance Auto Parts", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "AAP"},{"Name": "Advanced Micro Devices", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "AMD"},{"Name": "AES Corp", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "AES"},{"Name": "Aflac", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AFL"},{"Name": "Agilent Technologies", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "A"},{"Name": "Air Products & Chemicals", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "APD"},{"Name": "Akamai Technologies", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "AKAM"},{"Name": "Alaska Air Group", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ALK"},{"Name": "Albemarle Corporation", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "ALB"},{"Name": "Alexandria Real Estate Equities", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "ARE"},{"Name": "Alexion Pharmaceuticals", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ALXN"},{"Name": "Align Technology", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ALGN"},{"Name": "Allegion", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ALLE"},{"Name": "Alliant Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "LNT"},{"Name": "Allstate Corp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "ALL"},{"Name": "Alphabet Inc. (Class A)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "GOOGL"},{"Name": "Alphabet Inc. (Class C)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "GOOG"},{"Name": "Altria Group Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "MO"},{"Name": "Amazon.com Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "AMZN"},{"Name": "Amcor plc", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "AMCR"},{"Name": "Ameren Corp", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "AEE"},{"Name": "American Airlines Group", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "AAL"},{"Name": "American Electric Power", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "AEP"},{"Name": "American Express", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AXP"},{"Name": "American International Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AIG"},{"Name": "American Tower Corp.", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "AMT"},{"Name": "American Water Works", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "AWK"},{"Name": "Ameriprise Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AMP"},{"Name": "AmerisourceBergen", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ABC"},{"Name": "Ametek", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "AME"},{"Name": "Amgen Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "AMGN"},{"Name": "Amphenol Corp", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "APH"},{"Name": "Analog Devices Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ADI"},{"Name": "ANSYS Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ANSS"},{"Name": "Anthem", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ANTM"},{"Name": "Aon plc", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AON"},{"Name": "APA Corporation", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "APA"},{"Name": "Apple Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "AAPL"},{"Name": "Applied Materials Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "AMAT"},{"Name": "Aptiv PLC", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "APTV"},{"Name": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Co", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "ADM"},{"Name": "Arista Networks", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ANET"},{"Name": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AJG"},{"Name": "Assurant", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "AIZ"},{"Name": "AT&T Inc.", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "T"},{"Name": "Atmos Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "ATO"},{"Name": "Autodesk Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ADSK"},{"Name": "Automatic Data Processing", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ADP"},{"Name": "AutoZone Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "AZO"},{"Name": "AvalonBay Communities", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "AVB"},{"Name": "Avery Dennison Corp", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "AVY"},{"Name": "Baker Hughes Co", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "BKR"},{"Name": "Ball Corp", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "BLL"},{"Name": "Bank of America Corp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "BAC"},{"Name": "Baxter International Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BAX"},{"Name": "Becton Dickinson", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BDX"},{"Name": "Berkshire Hathaway", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "BRK.B"},{"Name": "Best Buy Co. Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "BBY"},{"Name": "Bio-Rad Laboratories", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BIO"},{"Name": "Biogen Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BIIB"},{"Name": "BlackRock", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "BLK"},{"Name": "Boeing Company", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "BA"},{"Name": "Booking Holdings Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "BKNG"},{"Name": "BorgWarner", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "BWA"},{"Name": "Boston Properties", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "BXP"},{"Name": "Boston Scientific", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BSX"},{"Name": "Bristol-Myers Squibb", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "BMY"},{"Name": "Broadcom Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "AVGO"},{"Name": "Broadridge Financial Solutions", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "BR"},{"Name": "Brown-Forman Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "BF.B"},{"Name": "C. H. Robinson Worldwide", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CHRW"},{"Name": "Cabot Oil & Gas", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "COG"},{"Name": "Cadence Design Systems", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CDNS"},{"Name": "Campbell Soup", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "CPB"},{"Name": "Capital One Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "COF"},{"Name": "Cardinal Health Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CAH"},{"Name": "Carmax Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "KMX"},{"Name": "Carnival Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "CCL"},{"Name": "Carrier Global", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CARR"},{"Name": "Catalent", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CTLT"},{"Name": "Caterpillar Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CAT"},{"Name": "Cboe Global Markets", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CBOE"},{"Name": "CBRE Group", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "CBRE"},{"Name": "CDW", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CDW"},{"Name": "Celanese", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "CE"},{"Name": "Centene Corporation", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CNC"},{"Name": "CenterPoint Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "CNP"},{"Name": "Cerner", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CERN"},{"Name": "CF Industries Holdings Inc", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "CF"},{"Name": "Charles Schwab Corporation", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "SCHW"},{"Name": "Charter Communications", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "CHTR"},{"Name": "Chevron Corp.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "CVX"},{"Name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "CMG"},{"Name": "Chubb Limited", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CB"},{"Name": "Church & Dwight", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "CHD"},{"Name": "Cigna", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CI"},{"Name": "Cincinnati Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CINF"},{"Name": "Cintas Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CTAS"},{"Name": "Cisco Systems", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CSCO"},{"Name": "Citigroup Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "C"},{"Name": "Citizens Financial Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CFG"},{"Name": "Citrix Systems", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CTXS"},{"Name": "CME Group Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CME"},{"Name": "CMS Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "CMS"},{"Name": "Coca-Cola Company", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "KO"},{"Name": "Cognizant Technology Solutions", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CTSH"},{"Name": "Colgate-Palmolive", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "CL"},{"Name": "Comcast Corp.", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "CMCSA"},{"Name": "Comerica Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "CMA"},{"Name": "Conagra Brands", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "CAG"},{"Name": "ConocoPhillips", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "COP"},{"Name": "Consolidated Edison", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "ED"},{"Name": "Constellation Brands", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "STZ"},{"Name": "Copart Inc", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CPRT"},{"Name": "Corning Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "GLW"},{"Name": "Corteva", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "CTVA"},{"Name": "Costco Wholesale Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "COST"},{"Name": "Crown Castle", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "CCI"},{"Name": "CSX Corp.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CSX"},{"Name": "Cummins Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "CMI"},{"Name": "CVS Health", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "CVS"},{"Name": "D. R. Horton", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "DHI"},{"Name": "Danaher Corp.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "DHR"},{"Name": "Darden Restaurants", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "DRI"},{"Name": "DaVita Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "DVA"},{"Name": "Deere & Co.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "DE"},{"Name": "Delta Air Lines Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "DAL"},{"Name": "Dentsply Sirona", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "XRAY"},{"Name": "Devon Energy", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "DVN"},{"Name": "DexCom", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "DXCM"},{"Name": "Diamondback Energy", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "FANG"},{"Name": "Digital Realty Trust Inc", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "DLR"},{"Name": "Discover Financial Services", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "DFS"},{"Name": "Discovery Inc. (Series A)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "DISCA"},{"Name": "Discovery Inc. (Series C)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "DISCK"},{"Name": "Dish Network", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "DISH"},{"Name": "Dollar General", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "DG"},{"Name": "Dollar Tree", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "DLTR"},{"Name": "Dominion Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "D"},{"Name": "Domino's Pizza", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "DPZ"},{"Name": "Dover Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "DOV"},{"Name": "Dow Inc.", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "DOW"},{"Name": "DTE Energy Co.", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "DTE"},{"Name": "Duke Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "DUK"},{"Name": "Duke Realty Corp", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "DRE"},{"Name": "DuPont de Nemours Inc", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "DD"},{"Name": "DXC Technology", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "DXC"},{"Name": "Eastman Chemical", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "EMN"},{"Name": "Eaton Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ETN"},{"Name": "eBay Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "EBAY"},{"Name": "Ecolab Inc.", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "ECL"},{"Name": "Edison Int'l", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "EIX"},{"Name": "Edwards Lifesciences", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "EW"},{"Name": "Electronic Arts", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "EA"},{"Name": "Emerson Electric Company", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "EMR"},{"Name": "Enphase Energy", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ENPH"},{"Name": "Entergy Corp.", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "ETR"},{"Name": "EOG Resources", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "EOG"},{"Name": "Equifax Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "EFX"},{"Name": "Equinix", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "EQIX"},{"Name": "Equity Residential", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "EQR"},{"Name": "Essex Property Trust Inc.", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "ESS"},{"Name": "Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "EL"},{"Name": "Etsy", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "ETSY"},{"Name": "Everest Re Group Ltd.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "RE"},{"Name": "Evergy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "EVRG"},{"Name": "Eversource Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "ES"},{"Name": "Exelon Corp.", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "EXC"},{"Name": "Expedia Group", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "EXPE"},{"Name": "Expeditors", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "EXPD"},{"Name": "Extra Space Storage", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "EXR"},{"Name": "Exxon Mobil Corp.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "XOM"},{"Name": "F5 Networks", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FFIV"},{"Name": "Facebook Inc.", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "FB"},{"Name": "Fastenal Co", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "FAST"},{"Name": "Federal Realty Investment Trust", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "FRT"},{"Name": "FedEx Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "FDX"},{"Name": "Fidelity National Information Services", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FIS"},{"Name": "Fifth Third Bancorp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "FITB"},{"Name": "First Republic Bank", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "FRC"},{"Name": "FirstEnergy Corp", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "FE"},{"Name": "Fiserv Inc", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FISV"},{"Name": "FleetCor Technologies Inc", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FLT"},{"Name": "FLIR Systems", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FLIR"},{"Name": "Flowserve Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "FLS"},{"Name": "FMC Corporation", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "FMC"},{"Name": "Ford Motor Company", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "F"},{"Name": "Fortinet", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "FTNT"},{"Name": "Fortive Corp", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "FTV"},{"Name": "Fortune Brands Home & Security", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "FBHS"},{"Name": "Fox Corporation (Class A)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "FOXA"},{"Name": "Fox Corporation (Class B)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "FOX"},{"Name": "Franklin Resources", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "BEN"},{"Name": "Freeport-McMoRan Inc.", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "FCX"},{"Name": "Gap Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "GPS"},{"Name": "Garmin Ltd.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "GRMN"},{"Name": "Gartner Inc", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "IT"},{"Name": "General Dynamics", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "GD"},{"Name": "General Electric", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "GE"},{"Name": "General Mills", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "GIS"},{"Name": "General Motors", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "GM"},{"Name": "Genuine Parts", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "GPC"},{"Name": "Gilead Sciences", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "GILD"},{"Name": "Global Payments Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "GPN"},{"Name": "Globe Life Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "GL"},{"Name": "Goldman Sachs Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "GS"},{"Name": "Grainger (W.W.) Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "GWW"},{"Name": "Halliburton Co.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "HAL"},{"Name": "Hanesbrands Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "HBI"},{"Name": "Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "HIG"},{"Name": "Hasbro Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "HAS"},{"Name": "HCA Healthcare", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "HCA"},{"Name": "Healthpeak Properties", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "PEAK"},{"Name": "Henry Schein", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "HSIC"},{"Name": "Hess Corporation", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "HES"},{"Name": "Hewlett Packard Enterprise", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "HPE"},{"Name": "Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "HLT"},{"Name": "HollyFrontier Corp", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "HFC"},{"Name": "Hologic", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "HOLX"},{"Name": "Home Depot", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "HD"},{"Name": "Honeywell Int'l Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "HON"},{"Name": "Hormel Foods Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "HRL"},{"Name": "Host Hotels & Resorts", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "HST"},{"Name": "Howmet Aerospace", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "HWM"},{"Name": "HP Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "HPQ"},{"Name": "Humana Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "HUM"},{"Name": "Huntington Bancshares", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "HBAN"},{"Name": "Huntington Ingalls Industries", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "HII"},{"Name": "IDEX Corporation", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "IEX"},{"Name": "Idexx Laboratories", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "IDXX"},{"Name": "IHS Markit", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "INFO"},{"Name": "Illinois Tool Works", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ITW"},{"Name": "Illumina Inc", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ILMN"},{"Name": "Incyte", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "INCY"},{"Name": "Ingersoll Rand", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "IR"},{"Name": "Intel Corp.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "INTC"},{"Name": "Intercontinental Exchange", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "ICE"},{"Name": "International Business Machines", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "IBM"},{"Name": "International Flavors & Fragrances", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "IFF"},{"Name": "International Paper", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "IP"},{"Name": "Interpublic Group", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "IPG"},{"Name": "Intuit Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "INTU"},{"Name": "Intuitive Surgical Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ISRG"},{"Name": "Invesco Ltd.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "IVZ"},{"Name": "IPG Photonics Corp.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "IPGP"},{"Name": "IQVIA Holdings Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "IQV"},{"Name": "Iron Mountain Incorporated", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "IRM"},{"Name": "J. B. Hunt Transport Services", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "JBHT"},{"Name": "Jack Henry & Associates", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "JKHY"},{"Name": "Jacobs Engineering Group", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "J"},{"Name": "JM Smucker", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "SJM"},{"Name": "Johnson & Johnson", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "JNJ"},{"Name": "Johnson Controls International", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "JCI"},{"Name": "JPMorgan Chase & Co.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "JPM"},{"Name": "Juniper Networks", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "JNPR"},{"Name": "Kansas City Southern", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "KSU"},{"Name": "Kellogg Co.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "K"},{"Name": "KeyCorp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "KEY"},{"Name": "Keysight Technologies", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "KEYS"},{"Name": "Kimberly-Clark", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "KMB"},{"Name": "Kimco Realty", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "KIM"},{"Name": "Kinder Morgan", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "KMI"},{"Name": "KLA Corporation", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "KLAC"},{"Name": "Kraft Heinz Co", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "KHC"},{"Name": "Kroger Co.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "KR"},{"Name": "L Brands Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LB"},{"Name": "L3Harris Technologies", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "LHX"},{"Name": "Laboratory Corp. of America Holding", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "LH"},{"Name": "Lam Research", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "LRCX"},{"Name": "Lamb Weston Holdings Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "LW"},{"Name": "Las Vegas Sands", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LVS"},{"Name": "Leggett & Platt", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LEG"},{"Name": "Leidos Holdings", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "LDOS"},{"Name": "Lennar Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LEN"},{"Name": "Lilly (Eli) & Co.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "LLY"},{"Name": "Lincoln National", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "LNC"},{"Name": "Linde plc", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "LIN"},{"Name": "Live Nation Entertainment", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "LYV"},{"Name": "LKQ Corporation", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LKQ"},{"Name": "Lockheed Martin Corp.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "LMT"},{"Name": "Loews Corp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "L"},{"Name": "Lowe's Cos.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "LOW"},{"Name": "Lumen Technologies", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "LUMN"},{"Name": "LyondellBasell", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "LYB"},{"Name": "M&T Bank", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MTB"},{"Name": "Marathon Oil Corp.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "MRO"},{"Name": "Marathon Petroleum", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "MPC"},{"Name": "MarketAxess", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MKTX"},{"Name": "Marriott International", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "MAR"},{"Name": "Marsh & McLennan", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MMC"},{"Name": "Martin Marietta Materials", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "MLM"},{"Name": "Masco Corp.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "MAS"},{"Name": "Mastercard Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MA"},{"Name": "Maxim Integrated Products", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MXIM"},{"Name": "McCormick & Co.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "MKC"},{"Name": "McDonald's Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "MCD"},{"Name": "McKesson Corp.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "MCK"},{"Name": "Medtronic plc", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "MDT"},{"Name": "Merck & Co.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "MRK"},{"Name": "MetLife Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MET"},{"Name": "Mettler Toledo", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "MTD"},{"Name": "MGM Resorts International", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "MGM"},{"Name": "Microchip Technology", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MCHP"},{"Name": "Micron Technology", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MU"},{"Name": "Microsoft Corp.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MSFT"},{"Name": "Mid-America Apartments", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "MAA"},{"Name": "Mohawk Industries", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "MHK"},{"Name": "Molson Coors Beverage Company", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "TAP"},{"Name": "Mondelez International", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "MDLZ"},{"Name": "Monolithic Power Systems", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MPWR"},{"Name": "Monster Beverage", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "MNST"},{"Name": "Moody's Corp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MCO"},{"Name": "Morgan Stanley", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MS"},{"Name": "Motorola Solutions Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "MSI"},{"Name": "MSCI Inc", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "MSCI"},{"Name": "Nasdaq Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "NDAQ"},{"Name": "NetApp", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "NTAP"},{"Name": "Netflix Inc.", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "NFLX"},{"Name": "Newell Brands", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "NWL"},{"Name": "Newmont Corporation", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "NEM"},{"Name": "News Corp (Class A)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "NWSA"},{"Name": "News Corp (Class B)", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "NWS"},{"Name": "NextEra Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "NEE"},{"Name": "Nielsen Holdings", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "NLSN"},{"Name": "Nike Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "NKE"},{"Name": "NiSource Inc.", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "NI"},{"Name": "Norfolk Southern Corp.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "NSC"},{"Name": "Northern Trust Corp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "NTRS"},{"Name": "Northrop Grumman", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "NOC"},{"Name": "NortonLifeLock", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "NLOK"},{"Name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "NCLH"},{"Name": "NOV Inc.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "NOV"},{"Name": "NRG Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "NRG"},{"Name": "Nucor Corp.", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "NUE"},{"Name": "Nvidia Corporation", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "NVDA"},{"Name": "NVR Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "NVR"},{"Name": "O'Reilly Automotive", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "ORLY"},{"Name": "Occidental Petroleum", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "OXY"},{"Name": "Old Dominion Freight Line", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ODFL"},{"Name": "Omnicom Group", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "OMC"},{"Name": "Oneok", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "OKE"},{"Name": "Oracle Corp.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ORCL"},{"Name": "Otis Worldwide", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "OTIS"},{"Name": "Paccar", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "PCAR"},{"Name": "Packaging Corporation of America", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "PKG"},{"Name": "Parker-Hannifin", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "PH"},{"Name": "Paychex Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "PAYX"},{"Name": "Paycom", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "PAYC"},{"Name": "PayPal", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "PYPL"},{"Name": "Pentair plc", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "PNR"},{"Name": "People's United Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "PBCT"},{"Name": "PepsiCo Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "PEP"},{"Name": "PerkinElmer", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "PKI"},{"Name": "Perrigo", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "PRGO"},{"Name": "Pfizer Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "PFE"},{"Name": "Philip Morris International", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "PM"},{"Name": "Phillips 66", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "PSX"},{"Name": "Pinnacle West Capital", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "PNW"},{"Name": "Pioneer Natural Resources", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "PXD"},{"Name": "PNC Financial Services", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "PNC"},{"Name": "Pool Corporation", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "POOL"},{"Name": "PPG Industries", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "PPG"},{"Name": "PPL Corp.", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "PPL"},{"Name": "Principal Financial Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "PFG"},{"Name": "Procter & Gamble", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "PG"},{"Name": "Progressive Corp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "PGR"},{"Name": "Prologis", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "PLD"},{"Name": "Prudential Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "PRU"},{"Name": "Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "PEG"},{"Name": "Public Storage", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "PSA"},{"Name": "PulteGroup", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "PHM"},{"Name": "PVH Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "PVH"},{"Name": "Qorvo", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "QRVO"},{"Name": "Qualcomm", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "QCOM"},{"Name": "Quanta Services Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "PWR"},{"Name": "Quest Diagnostics", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "DGX"},{"Name": "Ralph Lauren Corporation", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "RL"},{"Name": "Raymond James Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "RJF"},{"Name": "Raytheon Technologies", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "RTX"},{"Name": "Realty Income Corporation", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "O"},{"Name": "Regency Centers Corporation", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "REG"},{"Name": "Regeneron Pharmaceuticals", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "REGN"},{"Name": "Regions Financial Corp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "RF"},{"Name": "Republic Services Inc", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "RSG"},{"Name": "ResMed", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "RMD"},{"Name": "Robert Half International", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "RHI"},{"Name": "Rockwell Automation Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ROK"},{"Name": "Rollins Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ROL"},{"Name": "Roper Technologies", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "ROP"},{"Name": "Ross Stores", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "ROST"},{"Name": "Royal Caribbean Group", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "RCL"},{"Name": "S&P Global Inc.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "SPGI"},{"Name": "Salesforce.com", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "CRM"},{"Name": "SBA Communications", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "SBAC"},{"Name": "Schlumberger Ltd.", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "SLB"},{"Name": "Seagate Technology", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "STX"},{"Name": "Sealed Air", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "SEE"},{"Name": "Sempra Energy", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "SRE"},{"Name": "ServiceNow", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "NOW"},{"Name": "Sherwin-Williams", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "SHW"},{"Name": "Simon Property Group Inc", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "SPG"},{"Name": "Skyworks Solutions", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "SWKS"},{"Name": "SL Green Realty", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "SLG"},{"Name": "Snap-on", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "SNA"},{"Name": "Southern Company", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "SO"},{"Name": "Southwest Airlines", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "LUV"},{"Name": "Stanley Black & Decker", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "SWK"},{"Name": "Starbucks Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "SBUX"},{"Name": "State Street Corp.", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "STT"},{"Name": "Steris", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "STE"},{"Name": "Stryker Corp.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "SYK"},{"Name": "SVB Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "SIVB"},{"Name": "Synchrony Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "SYF"},{"Name": "Synopsys Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "SNPS"},{"Name": "Sysco Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "SYY"},{"Name": "T-Mobile US", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "TMUS"},{"Name": "T. Rowe Price Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "TROW"},{"Name": "Take-Two Interactive", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "TTWO"},{"Name": "Tapestry Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "TPR"},{"Name": "Target Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "TGT"},{"Name": "TE Connectivity Ltd.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "TEL"},{"Name": "Teledyne Technologies", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "TDY"},{"Name": "Teleflex", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "TFX"},{"Name": "Teradyne", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "TER"},{"Name": "Tesla Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "TSLA"},{"Name": "Texas Instruments", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "TXN"},{"Name": "Textron Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "TXT"},{"Name": "The Bank of New York Mellon", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "BK"},{"Name": "The Clorox Company", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "CLX"},{"Name": "The Cooper Companies", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "COO"},{"Name": "The Hershey Company", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "HSY"},{"Name": "The Mosaic Company", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "MOS"},{"Name": "The Travelers Companies", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "TRV"},{"Name": "The Walt Disney Company", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "DIS"},{"Name": "Thermo Fisher Scientific", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "TMO"},{"Name": "TJX Companies Inc.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "TJX"},{"Name": "Tractor Supply Company", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "TSCO"},{"Name": "Trane Technologies plc", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "TT"},{"Name": "TransDigm Group", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "TDG"},{"Name": "Trimble Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "TRMB"},{"Name": "Truist Financial", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "TFC"},{"Name": "Twitter Inc.", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "TWTR"},{"Name": "Tyler Technologies", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "TYL"},{"Name": "Tyson Foods", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "TSN"},{"Name": "U.S. Bancorp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "USB"},{"Name": "UDR Inc.", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "UDR"},{"Name": "Ulta Beauty", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "ULTA"},{"Name": "Under Armour (Class A)", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "UAA"},{"Name": "Under Armour (Class C)", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "UA"},{"Name": "Union Pacific Corp", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "UNP"},{"Name": "United Airlines Holdings", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "UAL"},{"Name": "United Parcel Service", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "UPS"},{"Name": "United Rentals Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "URI"},{"Name": "UnitedHealth Group Inc.", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "UNH"},{"Name": "Universal Health Services", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "UHS"},{"Name": "Unum Group", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "UNM"},{"Name": "Valero Energy", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "VLO"},{"Name": "Varian Medical Systems", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "VAR"},{"Name": "Ventas Inc", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "VTR"},{"Name": "Verisign Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "VRSN"},{"Name": "Verisk Analytics", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "VRSK"},{"Name": "Verizon Communications", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "VZ"},{"Name": "Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "VRTX"},{"Name": "VF Corporation", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "VFC"},{"Name": "ViacomCBS", "Sector": "Communication Services", "Symbol": "VIAC"},{"Name": "Viatris", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "VTRS"},{"Name": "Visa Inc.", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "V"},{"Name": "Vontier", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "VNT"},{"Name": "Vornado Realty Trust", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "VNO"},{"Name": "Vulcan Materials", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "VMC"},{"Name": "W. R. Berkley Corporation", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "WRB"},{"Name": "Walgreens Boots Alliance", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "WBA"},{"Name": "Walmart", "Sector": "Consumer Staples", "Symbol": "WMT"},{"Name": "Waste Management Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "WM"},{"Name": "Waters Corporation", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "WAT"},{"Name": "WEC Energy Group", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "WEC"},{"Name": "Wells Fargo", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "WFC"},{"Name": "Welltower Inc.", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "WELL"},{"Name": "West Pharmaceutical Services", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "WST"},{"Name": "Western Digital", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "WDC"},{"Name": "Western Union Co", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "WU"},{"Name": "Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "WAB"},{"Name": "WestRock", "Sector": "Materials", "Symbol": "WRK"},{"Name": "Weyerhaeuser", "Sector": "Real Estate", "Symbol": "WY"},{"Name": "Whirlpool Corp.", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "WHR"},{"Name": "Williams Companies", "Sector": "Energy", "Symbol": "WMB"},{"Name": "Willis Towers Watson", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "WLTW"},{"Name": "Wynn Resorts Ltd", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "WYNN"},{"Name": "Xcel Energy Inc", "Sector": "Utilities", "Symbol": "XEL"},{"Name": "Xerox", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "XRX"},{"Name": "Xilinx", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "XLNX"},{"Name": "Xylem Inc.", "Sector": "Industrials", "Symbol": "XYL"},{"Name": "Yum! Brands Inc", "Sector": "Consumer Discretionary", "Symbol": "YUM"},{"Name": "Zebra Technologies", "Sector": "Information Technology", "Symbol": "ZBRA"},{"Name": "Zimmer Biomet", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ZBH"},{"Name": "Zions Bancorp", "Sector": "Financials", "Symbol": "ZION"},{"Name": "Zoetis", "Sector": "Health Care", "Symbol": "ZTS"}]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/validation_report.json b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/validation_report.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b505c59
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/data/validation_report.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+[{"time": 0.66, "valid": true, "error-count": 0, "table-count": 1, "tables": [{"time": 0.625, "valid": true, "error-count": 0, "row-count": 506, "source": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/rawstore.datahub.io/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d.csv", "headers": ["Symbol", "Name", "Sector"], "scheme": "https", "format": "csv", "encoding": "utf-8", "schema": "table-schema", "errors": []}], "warnings": [], "preset": "table", "resource": "constituents"}]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/datapackage.json b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/datapackage.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e4842dd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/s-and-p-500-companies/old/datapackage.json
@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
+{
+ "bytes": 78687,
+ "datahub": {
+ "created": "2017-11-09T01:06:00.622796",
+ "findability": "published",
+ "flowid": "core/s-and-p-500-companies/149",
+ "modified": "2021-03-17T01:40:06.415706",
+ "owner": "core",
+ "ownerid": "core"
+ },
+ "hash": "e8b22e1f8c18b4b0cd38f408b5279899",
+ "id": "core/s-and-p-500-companies",
+ "licenses": [
+ {
+ "name": "ODC-PDDL-1.0",
+ "path": "http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/pddl/",
+ "title": "Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and License v1.0"
+ }
+ ],
+ "name": "s-and-p-500-companies",
+ "related": [
+ {
+ "formats": [
+ "CSV",
+ "JSON"
+ ],
+ "path": "/core/s-and-p-500",
+ "publisher": "core",
+ "title": "S&P 500 Index Data"
+ },
+ {
+ "formats": [
+ "CSV",
+ "JSON"
+ ],
+ "path": "/core/s-and-p-500-companies-financials",
+ "publisher": "core",
+ "title": "S&P 500 Companies with Financial Information"
+ },
+ {
+ "formats": [
+ "CSV",
+ "JSON"
+ ],
+ "path": "/core/finance-vix",
+ "publisher": "core",
+ "title": "VIX - CBOE Volatility Index"
+ },
+ {
+ "formats": [
+ "CSV",
+ "JSON"
+ ],
+ "path": "/core/nyse-other-listings",
+ "publisher": "core",
+ "title": "NYSE and Other Listings"
+ }
+ ],
+ "resources": [
+ {
+ "bytes": 18532,
+ "datahub": {
+ "type": "original"
+ },
+ "dpp:streamedFrom": "https://s3.amazonaws.com/rawstore.datahub.io/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d.csv",
+ "encoding": "UTF-8",
+ "format": "csv",
+ "mediatype": "text/csv",
+ "name": "constituents_original",
+ "path": "archive/constituents.csv",
+ "pathType": "local",
+ "profile": "data-resource",
+ "schema": {
+ "fields": [
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Symbol",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Name",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Sector",
+ "type": "string"
+ }
+ ]
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "bytes": 443,
+ "datahub": {
+ "type": "derived/report"
+ },
+ "description": "Validation report for tabular data",
+ "dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/validation_report/data/f1bdbd2a66a2fc5ef52b333758457e0d/validation_report.json",
+ "format": "json",
+ "hash": "f1bdbd2a66a2fc5ef52b333758457e0d",
+ "name": "validation_report",
+ "path": "data/validation_report.json",
+ "profile": "data-resource"
+ },
+ {
+ "bytes": 19038,
+ "datahub": {
+ "derivedFrom": [
+ "constituents"
+ ],
+ "type": "derived/csv"
+ },
+ "dialect": {
+ "delimiter": ",",
+ "doubleQuote": true,
+ "lineTerminator": "\r\n",
+ "quoteChar": "\"",
+ "skipInitialSpace": false
+ },
+ "dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/constituents_csv/data/1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d/constituents_csv.csv",
+ "encoding": "utf-8",
+ "format": "csv",
+ "hash": "1cdaf79f59d2b574b0a0bff698ad6c4d",
+ "mediatype": "text/csv",
+ "name": "constituents_csv",
+ "path": "data/constituents_csv.csv",
+ "pathType": "local",
+ "profile": "data-resource",
+ "rowcount": 505,
+ "schema": {
+ "fields": [
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Symbol",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Name",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Sector",
+ "type": "string"
+ }
+ ]
+ },
+ "signed": true
+ },
+ {
+ "bytes": 37708,
+ "datahub": {
+ "derivedFrom": [
+ "constituents"
+ ],
+ "type": "derived/json"
+ },
+ "dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmpcfyetuna/core/s-and-p-500-companies/constituents_json/data/f8fb673fdae858aa28510157836b65c2/constituents_json.json",
+ "encoding": "utf-8",
+ "format": "json",
+ "hash": "f8fb673fdae858aa28510157836b65c2",
+ "mediatype": "text/csv",
+ "name": "constituents_json",
+ "path": "data/constituents_json.json",
+ "pathType": "local",
+ "profile": "data-resource",
+ "rowcount": 505,
+ "schema": {
+ "fields": [
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Symbol",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Name",
+ "type": "string"
+ },
+ {
+ "description": "",
+ "name": "Sector",
+ "type": "string"
+ }
+ ]
+ },
+ "signed": true
+ },
+ {
+ "bytes": 2966,
+ "dpp:streamedFrom": "/tmp/tmp167f5ya8/README.md",
+ "format": "md",
+ "name": "readme",
+ "path": "README.md"
+ }
+ ],
+ "title": "S&P 500 Companies with Financial Information",
+ "version": "1.0"
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.csv b/data/smarkets-questions.csv
index 1afdcbb..97a2477 100644
--- a/data/smarkets-questions.csv
+++ b/data/smarkets-questions.csv
@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
-"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005626942134878643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018224573780129334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05416981607457798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.36197194927353654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.073066263542454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033593684387335176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02620307382212144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.36835474930713025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05601746871588141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002771478961955152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8523345209075566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10191261953872115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03234577161072567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.013407087942996436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5392534240444007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18646495389848716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04592247784441859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06391549547936622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.034464237758481786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04475875033569063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
@@ -23,12 +23,12 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.4574565416285453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.23760292772186642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.30494053064958826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9424575424575425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.024975024975024976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009990009990009991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.029370629370629373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009990009990009991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9327664623294444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.029068617757563774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.03292465888866917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0019774569903104606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6843135336138566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31568646638614345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6873425082380306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31265749176196933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5867595234099682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.2622084242322537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08390669575432119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06712535660345695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5932000683410217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40679993165897826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6757322175732217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.101115760111576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.12633658763365874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.09681543468154347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -40,29 +40,29 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6394590446959524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36054095530404756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.605265546981389,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39473445301861093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.3018201575658788,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022684053246400434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.032328171692474865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06465634338494973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029475685954903557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.037761477859277366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16164085846237436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.027166530834012496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.059087204563977175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08489540885628905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04686226568867156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10445531105677805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8493275172664486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.016539440203562343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.004543802253725918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.07906215921483097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05052708106143221,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8138083349337432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.017476473977338203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0036489341271365473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.11167658920683697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05338966775494527,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12773588375942616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3215927901416222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5506713260989516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.427658109570178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.399822956624373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.17251893380544903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.052059925093632956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.22294007490636703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.30702247191011234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.41797752808988764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.3164641093809343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.12827573110520318,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5552601595138625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.25637114142139267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.218862167982771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5247666905958364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0282949233166571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.12064299188058722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5360452718773067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.22783564340195195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07455097186910523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012630197654391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.028680688336520075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.10142156455233185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5505860836312245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.2309418904314573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07556737883448332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012802394213982875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -72,9 +72,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9556486987035774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04435130129642265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9114912606917069,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08850873930829305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5402559680493783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17454842516111463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08250884995915403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04129980938549514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10801488608514115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.053372061359716796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5417533701257577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17397991495521578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08224011580566362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.041165294490183656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10766307789740343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.05319822672577581,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4299680766161213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5700319233838786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.3380956856847448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.6619043143152552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -105,17 +105,17 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8743213352101347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.12567866478986528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.17962075432381747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8203792456761826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.25555450505814503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.744445494941855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.668265240247164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33173475975283595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.683055775839281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.316944224160719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6760837347165617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3239162652834383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6635258645057949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33647413549420524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@@ -137,4 +137,6 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
-"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4359478731251537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4820916318334563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.08196049504139005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
\ No newline at end of file
+"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4244963451595649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.46915671242645746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.01274737029773578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.004457122481725797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.08914244963451595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"Joe Biden exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
+"2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""60 or fewer"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""61–64"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–68"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69–72"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or more"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json
index aa8079d..6b84cb7 100644
--- a/data/smarkets-questions.json
+++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json
@@ -6,27 +6,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
- "probability": 0.03712990645192401,
+ "probability": 0.03746229444390386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
- "probability": 0.0009644131545954288,
+ "probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
- "probability": 0.025364065965859772,
+ "probability": 0.025591125814926532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
- "probability": 0.026810685697752915,
+ "probability": 0.027050695728325382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
- "probability": 0.10714630147555212,
+ "probability": 0.10810547825240828,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -36,22 +36,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
- "probability": 0.0643263574115151,
+ "probability": 0.06490220881580228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
- "probability": 0.06220464847140515,
+ "probability": 0.06276150627615062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.05217475166361269,
+ "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
- "probability": 0.005400713665734401,
+ "probability": 0.00544906101002238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61,27 +61,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.08033561577779921,
+ "probability": 0.0810547825240829,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
- "probability": 0.05217475166361269,
+ "probability": 0.05264182154325192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
- "probability": 0.07416337158838847,
+ "probability": 0.07482728422691447,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.03857652618381715,
+ "probability": 0.03892186435730271,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
- "probability": 0.01379110811071463,
+ "probability": 0.013914566507735718,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -96,17 +96,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
- "probability": 0.030089690423377377,
+ "probability": 0.030359054198696115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
- "probability": 0.022953033079371202,
+ "probability": 0.023158509292595112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
- "probability": 0.009644131545954287,
+ "probability": 0.009730466089325677,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.2967499276690134,
+ "probability": 0.2904544127663715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -838,22 +838,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8477819657871846,
+ "probability": 0.8523345209075566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
- "probability": 0.10505460519957474,
+ "probability": 0.10191261953872115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.03334299797042621,
+ "probability": 0.03234577161072567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.01382043104281434,
+ "probability": 0.013407087942996436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1273,41 +1273,51 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.9424575424575425,
+ "probability": 0.9327664623294444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.024975024975024976,
+ "probability": 0.029068617757563774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.029370629370629373,
+ "probability": 0.03292465888866917,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.00009990009990009991,
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.0009990009990009992,
+ "probability": 0.0019774569903104606,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "David Kurten",
+ "probability": 0.00009887284951552304,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Piers Corbyn",
+ "probability": 0.0009887284951552303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1340,12 +1350,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street",
- "probability": 0.6843135336138566,
+ "probability": 0.6873425082380306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne",
- "probability": 0.31568646638614345,
+ "probability": 0.31265749176196933,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1417,22 +1427,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.5910243407707911,
+ "probability": 0.5867595234099682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.26411426639621366,
+ "probability": 0.2622084242322537,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.08451656524678837,
+ "probability": 0.08390669575432119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.06034482758620689,
+ "probability": 0.06712535660345695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1865,12 +1875,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6394590446959524,
+ "probability": 0.605265546981389,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36054095530404756,
+ "probability": 0.39473445301861093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2069,57 +2079,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.29622716971070523,
+ "probability": 0.3018201575658788,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.022263698173576853,
+ "probability": 0.022684053246400434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.031729102786295156,
+ "probability": 0.032328171692474865,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.06345820557259031,
+ "probability": 0.06465634338494973,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.028929476069857348,
+ "probability": 0.029475685954903557,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.055592587654979334,
+ "probability": 0.037761477859277366,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.1586455139314758,
+ "probability": 0.16164085846237436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.026663111585121982,
+ "probability": 0.027166530834012496,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.05799226769764031,
+ "probability": 0.059087204563977175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.0833222237035062,
+ "probability": 0.08489540885628905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04599386748433542,
+ "probability": 0.04686226568867156,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2144,17 +2154,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.013331555792560991,
+ "probability": 0.013583265417006248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.013331555792560991,
+ "probability": 0.013583265417006248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.10251966404479403,
+ "probability": 0.10445531105677805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2317,17 +2327,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.8493275172664486,
+ "probability": 0.8138083349337432,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.016539440203562343,
+ "probability": 0.017476473977338203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.004543802253725918,
+ "probability": 0.0036489341271365473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2337,12 +2347,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.07906215921483097,
+ "probability": 0.11167658920683697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.05052708106143221,
+ "probability": 0.05338966775494527,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Laurence Fox",
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2495,17 +2510,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 20",
- "probability": 0.37488097505237095,
+ "probability": 0.427658109570178,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20–24",
- "probability": 0.38706912968958296,
+ "probability": 0.399822956624373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25 or more",
- "probability": 0.2380498952580461,
+ "probability": 0.17251893380544903,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2548,17 +2563,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "GroenLinks",
- "probability": 0.3164641093809343,
+ "probability": 0.25637114142139267,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)",
- "probability": 0.12827573110520318,
+ "probability": 0.218862167982771,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)",
- "probability": 0.5552601595138625,
+ "probability": 0.5247666905958364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2668,32 +2683,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
- "probability": 0.0282949233166571,
+ "probability": 0.028680688336520075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45–49.9%",
- "probability": 0.12064299188058722,
+ "probability": 0.10142156455233185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50–54.9%",
- "probability": 0.5360452718773067,
+ "probability": 0.5505860836312245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55–59.9%",
- "probability": 0.22783564340195195,
+ "probability": 0.2309418904314573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60–64.9%",
- "probability": 0.07455097186910523,
+ "probability": 0.07556737883448332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65% or over",
- "probability": 0.012630197654391865,
+ "probability": 0.012802394213982875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2898,12 +2913,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9556486987035774,
+ "probability": 0.9114912606917069,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04435130129642265,
+ "probability": 0.08850873930829305,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2936,27 +2951,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5402559680493783,
+ "probability": 0.5417533701257577,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.17454842516111463,
+ "probability": 0.17397991495521578,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.08250884995915403,
+ "probability": 0.08224011580566362,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.04129980938549514,
+ "probability": 0.041165294490183656,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.10801488608514115,
+ "probability": 0.10766307789740343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2966,7 +2981,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.053372061359716796,
+ "probability": 0.05319822672577581,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3398,12 +3413,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0.4299680766161213,
+ "probability": 0.3380956856847448,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.5700319233838786,
+ "probability": 0.6619043143152552,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3675,12 +3690,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.8743213352101347,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.12567866478986528,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3713,12 +3728,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.17962075432381747,
+ "probability": 0.25555450505814503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
- "probability": 0.8203792456761826,
+ "probability": 0.744445494941855,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3770,12 +3785,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.668265240247164,
+ "probability": 0.683055775839281,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.33173475975283595,
+ "probability": 0.316944224160719,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3865,12 +3880,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.6635258645057949,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.33647413549420524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4308,31 +4323,99 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.4359478731251537,
+ "probability": 0.4244963451595649,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.4820916318334563,
+ "probability": 0.46915671242645746,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.08196049504139005,
+ "probability": 0.01274737029773578,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.004457122481725797,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.08914244963451595,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Joe Biden exit date",
+ "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date",
+ "platform": "Smarkets",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "2021",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2022",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2023",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2024",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "2025 or later",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?",
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats",
+ "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats",
+ "platform": "Smarkets",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "60 or fewer",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "61–64",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "65–68",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "69–72",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "73 or more",
+ "probability": null,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
+ "stars": 2
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/xrisk-questions-raw-indirect-voice.json b/data/xrisk-questions-raw-indirect-voice.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f247334
--- /dev/null
+++ b/data/xrisk-questions-raw-indirect-voice.json
@@ -0,0 +1,858 @@
+[
+ {
+ "title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.19,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "platform": "Will MacAskill",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
+ "platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
+ "date_approx": 2017,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
+ "platform": "John Leslie",
+ "date_approx": 1996,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
+ "platform": "Martin Rees",
+ "date_approx": 2003,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
+ "platform": "Metaculus responders",
+ "date_approx": "2021",
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
+ "url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
+ "platform": "Nick Bostrom",
+ "date_approx": 2002,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "Gott III",
+ "date_approx": 1993,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.0035,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
+ "platform": "Wells",
+ "date_approx": 2009,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
+ "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
+ "probability": 0.002,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.2%",
+ "platform": "Simpson",
+ "date_approx": 2016,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "actualEstimate": ">20%",
+ "platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Total risk",
+ "description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "actualEstimate": "~10%",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
+ "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "Survey of AI experts",
+ "date_approx": 2017,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "actualEstimate": "0-10%",
+ "platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
+ "probability": 0.055,
+ "actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
+ "platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
+ "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "actualEstimate": "~5%",
+ "platform": "Rohin Shah",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF He might have updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
+ "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "platform": "Buck Schlegris",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
+ "probability": 0.0005,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.05%",
+ "platform": "James Fodor",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential risk from AI",
+ "url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
+ "probability": 0.175,
+ "actualEstimate": "5-30%",
+ "platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" He probably means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
+ "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
+ "platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2014,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
+ "url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
+ "probability": 0.415,
+ "actualEstimate": "33-50%",
+ "platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI",
+ "description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.0005,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.05%",
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.0001,
+ "actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
+ "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
+ "probability": 0.00004,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
+ "platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
+ "date_approx": 2017,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
+ "url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
+ "probability": 0.0000019,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
+ "platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
+ "date_approx": 2017,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.000001,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
+ "platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.000001,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
+ "platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
+ "probability": 0.000002,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
+ "platform": "James Fodor",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Biorisk",
+ "description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology",
+ "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.005,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.5%",
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology",
+ "description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.0001,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
+ "platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology",
+ "description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Total risk/conditional",
+ "description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
+ "date_approx": 2016,
+ "category": "AI/conditional",
+ "description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
+ "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "actualEstimate": "~10%",
+ "platform": "Rohin Shah",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "AI/conditional",
+ "description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. He updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
+ "url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
+ "platform": "Rohin Shah",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "AI/conditional",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "actualEstimate": "~20%",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI/conditional",
+ "description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "actualEstimate": "~2%",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
+ "description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
+ "url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
+ "probability": 0.000055,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
+ "platform": "Luke Oman",
+ "date_approx": 2012,
+ "category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
+ "description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "Mark Lynas",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Climate change/conditional",
+ "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "actualEstimate": "30-40%",
+ "platform": "Mark Lynas",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Climate change/conditional",
+ "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "platform": "Mark Lynas",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Climate change/conditional",
+ "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "platform": "Mark Lynas",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Climate change/conditional",
+ "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
+ "probability": 0.97,
+ "platform": "Mark Lynas",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Climate change/conditional",
+ "description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "platform": "Bryan Caplan",
+ "date_approx": 2006,
+ "category": "Misc/conditional",
+ "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "Bryan Caplan",
+ "date_approx": 2006,
+ "category": "Misc/conditional",
+ "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
+ "probability": 0.001,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.1%",
+ "platform": "Bryan Caplan",
+ "date_approx": 2006,
+ "category": "Misc/conditional",
+ "description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
+ "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "platform": "Bryan Caplan",
+ "date_approx": 2006,
+ "category": "Misc/conditional",
+ "description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
+ "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "actualEstimate": "~10%",
+ "platform": "Adam Gleave",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
+ "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
+ "platform": "Adam Gleave",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
+ "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "actualEstimate": "~30%",
+ "platform": "Rohin Shah",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
+ "url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "actualEstimate": "~30%",
+ "platform": "Buck Schlegris",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "actualEstimate": "~50%",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.67,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
+ "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.005,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.5%",
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
+ "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "AI/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
+ "url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "actualEstimate": "~5%",
+ "platform": "Toby Ord",
+ "date_approx": 2020,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
+ "probability": 0.011,
+ "actualEstimate": "1.10%",
+ "platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
+ "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
+ "probability": 0.0038,
+ "actualEstimate": "0.38%",
+ "platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
+ "date_approx": 2019,
+ "category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
+ "description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Climate change/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
+ "url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "platform": "GCR Conference",
+ "date_approx": 2008,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.72,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.72,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
+ "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
+ "url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "platform": "Brian Tomasik",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
+ "url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
+ "date_approx": 2015,
+ "category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
+ "description": ""
+ }
+]
diff --git a/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json b/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json
index b713a43..eb1418b 100644
--- a/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json
+++ b/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
- "description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
+ "description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
- "description": "I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
+ "description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
diff --git a/src/estimize-fetch.js b/src/estimize-fetch.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bf2f9d3
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/estimize-fetch.js
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+import fs from "fs"
+
+export function estimize(){
+ let data = fs.readFileSync('/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv', 'utf8')
+
+ let splitData = data.split("\n")
+ let results = []
+ for(let datum of splitData){
+ if(datum!=""){
+ //console.log(datum)
+ let datumSplit = datum.split(",")
+ let companyStickerSymbol=datumSplit[0]
+ let companyName=datumSplit[1]
+ let standardObj = ({
+ "title": `Estimates for ${companyName} (${companyStickerSymbol})`,
+ "url": `https://www.estimize.com/${companyStickerSymbol.toLowerCase()}`,
+ "platform": "Estimize",
+ "description": `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
+ "options": [],
+ "stars": 2//calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
+ })
+ results.push(standardObj)
+ }
+ }
+ console.log(results)
+ let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
+ fs.writeFileSync('./data/estimize-questions.json', string);
+}
+//estimize()
diff --git a/src/index.js b/src/index.js
index 3777086..fe3fc8e 100644
--- a/src/index.js
+++ b/src/index.js
@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import readline from "readline"
import {csetforetell} from "./csetforetell-fetch.js"
import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js"
+import {estimize} from "./estimize-fetch.js"
import {foretold} from "./foretold-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
@@ -22,7 +23,7 @@ let opts = {}
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
// let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets", "williamhill", "ladbrokes", "xrisk"]
-let sets = ["csetforetell", "elicit", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "ladbrokes", "metaculus", "polymarket", "predictit", "omen", "smarkets", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
+let sets = ["csetforetell", "elicit", "estimize", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "ladbrokes", "metaculus", "polymarket", "predictit", "omen", "smarkets", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
let suffix = "-questions"
let locationData = "./data/"
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
@@ -79,42 +80,45 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
elicit()
break;
case 3:
- foretold()
+ estimize()
break;
case 4:
- goodjudgment()
+ foretold()
break;
case 5:
- goodjudgmentopen()
+ goodjudgment()
break;
case 6:
- hypermind()
+ goodjudgmentopen()
break;
case 7:
- ladbrokes()
+ hypermind()
break;
case 8:
- metaculus()
+ ladbrokes()
break;
case 9:
- omen()
+ metaculus()
break;
case 10:
+ omen()
+ break;
+ case 11:
polymarket()
break;
- case 11:
+ case 12:
predictit()
break;
- case 12:
+ case 13:
smarkets()
break;
- case 13:
+ case 14:
williamhill()
break;
- case 14:
+ case 15:
coverttocsvandmerge()
break;
- case 15:
+ case 16:
await csetforetell()
await elicit()
//await foretold()
@@ -139,19 +143,20 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
[1]: Download predictions from csetforetell
[2]: Download predictions from elicit
-[3]: Download predictions from foretold
-[4]: Download predictions from goodjudgment
-[5]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
-[6]: Download predictions from hypermind
-[7]: Download predictions from ladbrokes
-[8]: Download predictions from metaculus
-[9]: Download predictions from omen
-[10]: Download predictions from polymarket
-[11]: Download predictions from predictit
-[12]: Download predictions from smarkets
-[13]: Download predictions from William Hill
-[14]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps)
-[15]: All of the above
+[3]: Download predictions from estimize
+[4]: Download predictions from foretold
+[5]: Download predictions from goodjudgment
+[6]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
+[7]: Download predictions from hypermind
+[8]: Download predictions from ladbrokes
+[9]: Download predictions from metaculus
+[10]: Download predictions from omen
+[11]: Download predictions from polymarket
+[12]: Download predictions from predictit
+[13]: Download predictions from smarkets
+[14]: Download predictions from William Hill
+[15]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps)
+[16]: All of the above
Choose one option, wisely: #`
whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)