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140
data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.1035,
"probability": 0.1117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
"probability": 0.1857,
"probability": 0.2214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2843,
"probability": 0.3429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2084,
"probability": 0.1877,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
"probability": 0.2181,
"probability": 0.1363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasters": "37",
"numforecasts": "56",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -85,17 +85,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.84,
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.16,
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "11",
"numforecasters": "10",
"numforecasts": "12",
"numforecasters": "11",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -106,32 +106,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.0483,
"probability": 0.0405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.135,
"probability": 0.12300000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.2728,
"probability": 0.2775,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.3044,
"probability": 0.3145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.2394,
"probability": 0.2445,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "29",
"numforecasters": "26",
"numforecasts": "32",
"numforecasters": "28",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -250,32 +250,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.0481,
"probability": 0.048799999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.10640000000000001,
"probability": 0.1074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.2288,
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3295,
"probability": 0.32789999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.2871,
"probability": 0.28600000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "60",
"numforecasts": "64",
"numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -286,17 +286,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "99",
"numforecasts": "114",
"numforecasters": "101",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -316,7 +316,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "162",
"numforecasts": "163",
"numforecasters": "130",
"stars": 3
},
@ -405,12 +405,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3181,
"probability": 0.31679999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.2977,
"probability": 0.2991,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -424,7 +424,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasts": "127",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
@ -436,7 +436,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.0525,
"probability": 0.052300000000000006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -446,21 +446,21 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.35979999999999995,
"probability": 0.359,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
"probability": 0.2379,
"probability": 0.239,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.1466,
"probability": 0.1464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "101",
"numforecasts": "102",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
@ -472,17 +472,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.0496,
"probability": 0.0495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3077,
"probability": 0.3074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.3317,
"probability": 0.33240000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -492,11 +492,11 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.12119999999999999,
"probability": 0.1208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "124",
"numforecasts": "125",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@ -616,16 +616,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.57,
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "128",
"numforecasts": "130",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
@ -637,21 +637,21 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.40630000000000005,
"probability": 0.40880000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
"probability": 0.33899999999999997,
"probability": 0.3373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two or more",
"probability": 0.2547,
"probability": 0.2539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "103",
"numforecasts": "104",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3
},
@ -720,27 +720,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.0356,
"probability": 0.0352,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.10220000000000001,
"probability": 0.1042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.2347,
"probability": 0.2343,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6275,
"probability": 0.6263000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "211",
"numforecasters": "129",
"numforecasts": "213",
"numforecasters": "131",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -787,12 +787,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0742,
"probability": 0.0746,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.18780000000000002,
"probability": 0.1888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -802,16 +802,16 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.2742,
"probability": 0.2735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.1426,
"probability": 0.1419,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "135",
"numforecasts": "136",
"numforecasters": "104",
"stars": 3
},
@ -832,8 +832,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "166",
"numforecasters": "127",
"numforecasts": "168",
"numforecasters": "129",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -880,32 +880,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.5716,
"probability": 0.5722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.22260000000000002,
"probability": 0.2249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.11019999999999999,
"probability": 0.1091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.061900000000000004,
"probability": 0.060700000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.0337,
"probability": 0.0331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "136",
"numforecasters": "78",
"numforecasts": "139",
"numforecasters": "80",
"stars": 3
}
]

36
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -17,17 +17,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
"probability": 0.3,
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.0%",
"probability": 0.19,
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -94,12 +94,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.9,
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.09,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -133,22 +133,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
"probability": 0.18,
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.76,
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 billion",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -200,17 +200,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.77,
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.23,
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -234,12 +234,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.96,
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -335,12 +335,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.75,
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.23,
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -504,12 +504,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.75,
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.23,
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{

745
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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120
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5686274509803921,
"probability": 0.5445544554455446,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.14705882352941177,
"probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.6734693877551021,
"probability": 0.6435643564356436,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
"probability": 0.11224489795918367,
"probability": 0.1089108910891089,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
"probability": 0.17346938775510204,
"probability": 0.20792079207920794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
"probability": 0.04081632653061225,
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -194,17 +194,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
"probability": 0.8350515463917525,
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
"probability": 0.12371134020618556,
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not in 2021",
"probability": 0.04123711340206185,
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -218,17 +218,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.11,
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"probability": 0.88,
"probability": 0.8627450980392156,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same medals count",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.08,
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.17475728155339806,
"probability": 0.06930693069306931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.3203883495145631,
"probability": 0.2178217821782178,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.46601941747572817,
"probability": 0.693069306930693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -296,27 +296,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.3725490196078431,
"probability": 0.44554455445544555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
"probability": 0.4411764705882353,
"probability": 0.3564356435643565,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
"probability": 0.08823529411764705,
"probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.0784313725490196,
"probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -421,12 +421,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44029850746268656,
"probability": 0.44360902255639095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5597014925373135,
"probability": 0.556390977443609,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -440,27 +440,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso",
"probability": 0.951923076923077,
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mathias Dzon",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -547,27 +547,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
"probability": 0.020408163265306124,
"probability": 0.020618556701030924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.28571428571428575,
"probability": 0.28865979381443296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
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"probability": 0.37113402061855666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.17346938775510204,
"probability": 0.17525773195876287,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.15306122448979592,
"probability": 0.14432989690721648,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -581,17 +581,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.8285714285714285,
"probability": 0.8365384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another Likud politician",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another politician not from Likud",
"probability": 0.15238095238095237,
"probability": 0.15384615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -668,27 +668,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.12658227848101267,
"probability": 0.051948051948051945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.17721518987341775,
"probability": 0.1948051948051948,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.21518987341772153,
"probability": 0.2207792207792208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.24050632911392406,
"probability": 0.24675324675324675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.24050632911392406,
"probability": 0.2857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -702,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.05102040816326531,
"probability": 0.028571428571428567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.5816326530612245,
"probability": 0.5142857142857142,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.29591836734693877,
"probability": 0.32380952380952377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.07142857142857144,
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -736,7 +736,7 @@
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.05208333333333334,
"probability": 0.04166666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -746,7 +746,7 @@
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.04166666666666667,
"probability": 0.05208333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -817,12 +817,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.888888888888889,
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.11111111111111112,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

52
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
View File

@ -1768,27 +1768,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)",
"probability": 0.00915359010936757,
"probability": 0.009070561903640004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)",
"probability": 0.00915359010936757,
"probability": 0.009070561903640004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Golton (LD)",
"probability": 0.00915359010936757,
"probability": 0.009070561903640004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin (Lab)",
"probability": 0.8404660009510223,
"probability": 0.8328425020614912,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Robinson (Cons)",
"probability": 0.13207322872087493,
"probability": 0.13087525032394862,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wajid Ali (Reform)",
"probability": 0.009070561903640004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1801,52 +1806,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.45349705670653817,
"probability": 0.44229638394840987,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4748660279649614,
"probability": 0.49144042660934434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.004512408524443166,
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.017784198302217183,
"probability": 0.017344956233270977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
"probability": 0.03488438897742602,
"probability": 0.026017434349906464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004512408524443166,
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heritage Party",
"probability": 0.0018103674918424676,
"probability": 0.0017656542273389614,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.0018103674918424676,
"probability": 0.0017656542273389614,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Womens Equality Party",
"probability": 0.0018103674918424676,
"probability": 0.0017656542273389614,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "North East Party",
"probability": 0.004512408524443166,
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sam Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2456,12 +2466,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.4638069705093834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.5361930294906166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2596,22 +2606,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.8406168766829473,
"probability": 0.8702787392475269,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.13209693776446316,
"probability": 0.10249949595581984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.01813095224218122,
"probability": 0.01808814634514468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.009155233310408337,
"probability": 0.0091336184515087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

7814
data/metaculus-questions.json
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data/metaforecasts.csv
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750
data/polymarket-questions.json
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@ -1,82 +1,67 @@
[
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.09471882941566854900783987701471025",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.8862514475368737605999119046633115",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.01902972304745769039224821832197825",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "276",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5871432055669133105154549423449486",
"probability": "0.3325426078486210391403659153611369",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4128567944330866894845450576550514",
"probability": "0.6674573921513789608596340846388631",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "317",
"numforecasts": "98",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march",
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).\n",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4391425697965956603305816025607775",
"probability": "0.1718025008310863946779364090448349",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5608574302034043396694183974392225",
"probability": "0.8281974991689136053220635909551651",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "148",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70",
"probability": "0.1672746246072319080776838488635544",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "70-80",
"probability": "0.2476901256544144696879613915347041",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81-90",
"probability": "0.1952432196242796903539219437959104",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "91-100",
"probability": "0.1164785241546611526816670444449205",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "101-110",
"probability": "0.1216864057709885832664494211185656",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110",
"probability": "0.1516271001884241959323163502423449",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "299",
"numforecasts": "451",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -87,352 +72,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9020409953503909000562711280753918",
"probability": "0.8978542963687510509806282313940195",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.09795900464960909994372887192460815",
"probability": "0.1021457036312489490193717686059805",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "791",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2633073732555388130695659666251378",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7366926267444611869304340333748622",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "421",
"numforecasts": "797",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
"title": "Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ever-given-be-dislodged-from-the-suez-canal-by-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.1883710726564277022850745484333587",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.7262394404243919097345492332829238",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.08538948691918038798037621828371755",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "233",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4530636632783070484902652045781653",
"probability": "0.4698896746217403382421058389612625",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5469363367216929515097347954218347",
"probability": "0.5301103253782596617578941610387375",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "80",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3751565387443145112653164613151741",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6248434612556854887346835386848259",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "24",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5063624076489165994445641010569313",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4936375923510834005554358989430687",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "79",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.001003847031198783653878237328185352",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9989961529688012163461217626718146",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4270",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2401966918615018843983652361027869",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7598033081384981156016347638972131",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "7240",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07809788734415578259133846771486672",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9219021126558442174086615322851333",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "390",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05203301629799111589572981466929816",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9479669837020088841042701853307018",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "83",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02583516387131374839338592849894705",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.974164836128686251606614071501053",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "712",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1239743371249700020666953031210272",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8760256628750299979333046968789728",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "70",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4464472380436790440847039771157174",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5535527619563209559152960228842826",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "2303",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05082943790130478653184589035805252",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9491705620986952134681541096419475",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "71",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1961684427606103841153688323774687",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8038315572393896158846311676225313",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "70",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05860162608821927934180182205734666",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9413983739117807206581981779426533",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "93",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.696874352742622330981106127626817",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.303125647257377669018893872373183",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "51",
"numforecasts": "383",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -443,16 +112,311 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5084922355951987486962057308046653",
"probability": "0.4526971438909513404307955024326983",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4915077644048012513037942691953347",
"probability": "0.5473028561090486595692044975673017",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasts": "57",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4426875615958327161228189497385512",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5573124384041672838771810502614488",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "91",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007833069340194859579063580919656911",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9992166930659805140420936419080343",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "187",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.11325563039183722103275617002183",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.88674436960816277896724382997817",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "7773",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005773167438572659616369798800062558",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9994226832561427340383630201199937",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4284",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0785186989419276422486486868372132",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9214813010580723577513513131627868",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "399",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0463958172809963982245937485905163",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9536041827190036017754062514094837",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "85",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01556978274231434901849274397707455",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9844302172576856509815072560229254",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "720",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1199447741739855272384936981505642",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8800552258260144727615063018494358",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "73",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6720667278394123702971286257476096",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3279332721605876297028713742523904",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "2618",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01019374154946546974525356766539572",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9898062584505345302547464323346043",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "87",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "$80M or Less",
"probability": "0.09311545717991747005375998978049056",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$81-105M",
"probability": "0.4546994257057043229946384853760889",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$106-120M",
"probability": "0.2157457711612491388147202046582125",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$121-135M",
"probability": "0.1199694628723149212877599749935941",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$136M or More",
"probability": "0.1164698830808141468491213451916138",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "144",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1645269193840114258022893873779148",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8354730806159885741977106126220852",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "78",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05850935819533382463369476425064051",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9414906418046661753663052357493595",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "96",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7288981168376345387653725396207922",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2711018831623654612346274603792078",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "54",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -463,16 +427,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7517224139225624292201826311776367",
"probability": "0.7158133605584465880501470012740285",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2482775860774375707798173688223633",
"probability": "0.2841866394415534119498529987259715",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasts": "56",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2791105028801385312747041678913065",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7208894971198614687252958321086935",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "30",
"stars": 4
}
]

1078
data/predictit-questions.json
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194
data/smarkets-questions.json
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@ -149,27 +149,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
"probability": 0.005523040145082845,
"probability": 0.0054093331180364934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
"probability": 0.017888055395268318,
"probability": 0.01751978039722267,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.05316956557579754,
"probability": 0.052074923300500564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
"probability": 0.34638529387519573,
"probability": 0.3703374777975133,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
"probability": 0.07171708845107574,
"probability": 0.07024059421927982,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -189,7 +189,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
"probability": 0.0329733740004946,
"probability": 0.03229452607782981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -224,7 +224,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
"probability": 0.025719231720385784,
"probability": 0.02518973034070725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -239,22 +239,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
"probability": 0.35842057538537625,
"probability": 0.3229452607782981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
"probability": 0.05498310114582474,
"probability": 0.0538511222347812,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
"probability": 0.0027203033550408044,
"probability": 0.0026642984014209592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.030500370950457503,
"probability": 0.04747295333440982,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -652,12 +652,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.04501707544240919,
"probability": 0.04372298723489799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.05174376487633241,
"probability": 0.05025630716654941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -667,37 +667,37 @@
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.07389009624340268,
"probability": 0.10051261433309883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.0985201283245369,
"probability": 0.09568800884511007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
"probability": 0.08279002380213185,
"probability": 0.08041009146647905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
"probability": 0.12315016040567113,
"probability": 0.1196100110563876,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
"probability": 0.11249094484114663,
"probability": 0.10925721178007841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
"probability": 0.07958191037979924,
"probability": 0.077294200422153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
"probability": 0.055986753596191666,
"probability": 0.05437732435420647,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -707,7 +707,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.15223015626616995,
"probability": 0.14785405568398838,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -717,7 +717,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
"probability": 0.07958191037979924,
"probability": 0.077294200422153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -752,7 +752,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.04501707544240919,
"probability": 0.04372298723489799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -838,22 +838,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.8215239268843705,
"probability": 0.7202247191011235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.1283631135756829,
"probability": 0.2340823970037453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.03542821934688847,
"probability": 0.03230337078651685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.014684740193058122,
"probability": 0.013389513108614231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1224,17 +1224,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2023 or earlier",
"probability": 0.4574565416285453,
"probability": 0.4925623091321052,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": 0.23760292772186642,
"probability": 0.17909565560043345,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
"probability": 0.30494053064958826,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1248,61 +1248,61 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.9490945674044262,
"probability": 0.9542787780699976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.02394366197183098,
"probability": 0.021950232652235474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.025150905432595565,
"probability": 0.021950232652235474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.0010060362173038226,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.00010060362173038226,
"probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1364,12 +1364,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen",
"probability": 0.7560150032019028,
"probability": 0.7575454545454545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs",
"probability": 0.24398499679809715,
"probability": 0.24245454545454548,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1412,22 +1412,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.4935064935064935,
"probability": 0.5074626865671642,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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"probability": 0.3537051184110008,
"probability": 0.36370777690494893,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.08488243782361429,
"probability": 0.08728288382648162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
"probability": 0.06790595025889143,
"probability": 0.04154665270140525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1441,12 +1441,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.6636937568894679,
"probability": 0.6696525248548085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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"probability": 0.33630624311053214,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1860,12 +1860,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.5094983400959056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47997004867090975,
"probability": 0.49050165990409444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2312,17 +2312,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
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"probability": 0.8999332252217878,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -2332,17 +2332,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
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{
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},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2735,17 +2735,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "GERB",
"probability": 0.6037286115603984,
"probability": 0.6229853405685591,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "BSP",
"probability": 0.3669021877926279,
"probability": 0.34907264922653275,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "ITN",
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}
],
@ -2783,12 +2783,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6864825123411405,
"probability": 0.7037808871688002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31351748765885934,
"probability": 0.2962191128311997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2994,12 +2994,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4744868035190616,
"probability": 0.4613851519681116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5255131964809384,
"probability": 0.5386148480318884,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -3128,12 +3128,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18237860394537178,
"probability": 0.1719728134501878,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8176213960546281,
"probability": 0.8280271865498122,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -3302,12 +3302,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
"probability": 0.5528596187175043,
"probability": 0.5194617972128784,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
"probability": 0.4471403812824957,
"probability": 0.4805382027871216,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -3517,12 +3517,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.46785866326096215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.5321413367390379,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -3931,12 +3931,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.5714574694042682,
"probability": 0.6243461299760618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.4285425305957317,
"probability": 0.3756538700239383,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -4212,27 +4212,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.5097352024922117,
"probability": 0.5319148936170212,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.4549260124610591,
"probability": 0.4375661885048618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.013921339563862926,
"probability": 0.013767209011264077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.0019470404984423674,
"probability": 0.0019254837777991718,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
"probability": 0.019470404984423675,
"probability": 0.014826225089053622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -4280,27 +4280,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
"name": "65–68",
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{
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{
"name": "73 or more",
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@ -4414,17 +4414,17 @@
"options": [
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{
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{
@ -4444,12 +4444,12 @@
},
{
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},
{
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@ -4463,22 +4463,22 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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@ -4526,17 +4526,17 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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@ -4618,12 +4618,12 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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