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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: ""Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.""Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.5%"",""probability"":0.1035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%"",""probability"":0.1857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 12%"",""probability"":0.2181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","37",2
"Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","13","12",2
"Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
"Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.2728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.3044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.2394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","29","26",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.1305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30920000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.30260000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.17559999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.0821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","65","56",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.4854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.1877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","21","19",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32299999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","13","12",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10640000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2871,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63","60",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","99",3
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","130",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.40869999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","43",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.4276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32659999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.08070000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","41",2
"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.2977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","108",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.0525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.20329999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.35979999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","101","89",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.0496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.18989999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.12119999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","124","114",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.037200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.1883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.3583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.34340000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","53","41",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.2918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.09820000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.026600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","99",3
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.29460000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.21969999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.2503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","50",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","128","86",3
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.40630000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.33899999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.2547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","103","85",3
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0959,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.24760000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.11900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64","59",2
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","288","185",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","129",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.25920000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.13720000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","204","164",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18780000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.32130000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","135","104",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","166","127",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13390000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","197","138",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.5716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22260000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.11019999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.061900000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","136","78",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: "Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way."Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 5.5%","probability":0.1035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%","probability":0.1857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive","probability":0.2843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive","probability":0.2084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 12%","probability":0.2181,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 45 37 2
3 Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 2
4 Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 2
5 Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 2
6 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.0483,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.135,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.2728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.3044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.2394,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 26 2
7 How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.1305,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.30920000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.30260000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.17559999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.0821,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 65 56 2
8 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.4854,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.1877,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.0123,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 2
9 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.32299999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.096,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 2
10 What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.0481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.10640000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.2288,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.2871,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 63 60 2
11 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 99 3
12 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 162 130 3
13 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2577,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.40869999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.073,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 46 43 2
14 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.4276,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.32659999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.08070000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 46 41 2
15 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1855,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.2977,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0436,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 126 108 3
16 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.0525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.20329999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.35979999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1466,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 101 89 3
17 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.0496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.3317,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.18989999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.12119999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 124 114 3
18 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.037200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.1883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.3583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.34340000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 53 41 2
19 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.2918,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.09820000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.026600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 99 3
20 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0489,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1866,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.29460000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.21969999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.2503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 54 50 2
21 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 128 86 3
22 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.40630000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.33899999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.2547,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 103 85 3
23 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.0959,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.1766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.361,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.24760000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.11900000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 64 59 2
24 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 288 185 3
25 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.0356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.10220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6275,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 211 129 3
26 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.1308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.1877,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.25920000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2851,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.13720000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 204 164 3
27 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0742,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.18780000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.32130000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.2742,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.1426,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 135 104 3
28 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 166 127 3
29 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.066,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.13390000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2087,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3081,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 197 138 3
30 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.5716,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.22260000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.11019999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.061900000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.0337,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 136 78 3

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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Estimates for Security (Symbol)","https://www.estimize.com/symbol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","https://www.estimize.com/mmm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","https://www.estimize.com/abt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)","https://www.estimize.com/abbv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)","https://www.estimize.com/abmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Accenture (ACN)","https://www.estimize.com/acn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)","https://www.estimize.com/atvi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)","https://www.estimize.com/adbe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)","https://www.estimize.com/amd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)","https://www.estimize.com/aap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AES Corp (AES)","https://www.estimize.com/aes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aflac (AFL)","https://www.estimize.com/afl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)","https://www.estimize.com/a","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)","https://www.estimize.com/apd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)","https://www.estimize.com/akam","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)","https://www.estimize.com/alk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)","https://www.estimize.com/alb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)","https://www.estimize.com/are","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)","https://www.estimize.com/alxn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)","https://www.estimize.com/algn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)","https://www.estimize.com/alle","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)","https://www.estimize.com/lnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)","https://www.estimize.com/all","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)","https://www.estimize.com/googl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)","https://www.estimize.com/goog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)","https://www.estimize.com/mo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)","https://www.estimize.com/amzn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)","https://www.estimize.com/amcr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)","https://www.estimize.com/aee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)","https://www.estimize.com/aal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)","https://www.estimize.com/aep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Express (AXP)","https://www.estimize.com/axp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American International Group (AIG)","https://www.estimize.com/aig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)","https://www.estimize.com/amt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)","https://www.estimize.com/awk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)","https://www.estimize.com/amp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)","https://www.estimize.com/abc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ametek (AME)","https://www.estimize.com/ame","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)","https://www.estimize.com/amgn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)","https://www.estimize.com/aph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Analog Devices (ADI)","https://www.estimize.com/adi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""ANSYS (ANSS)","https://www.estimize.com/anss","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)","https://www.estimize.com/antm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aon plc (AON)","https://www.estimize.com/aon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)","https://www.estimize.com/aos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)","https://www.estimize.com/apa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)","https://www.estimize.com/aapl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)","https://www.estimize.com/amat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)","https://www.estimize.com/aptv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)","https://www.estimize.com/adm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)","https://www.estimize.com/anet","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)","https://www.estimize.com/ajg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)","https://www.estimize.com/aiz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)","https://www.estimize.com/t","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)","https://www.estimize.com/ato","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)","https://www.estimize.com/adsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)","https://www.estimize.com/adp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)","https://www.estimize.com/azo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)","https://www.estimize.com/avb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)","https://www.estimize.com/avy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)","https://www.estimize.com/bkr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)","https://www.estimize.com/bll","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)","https://www.estimize.com/bac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)","https://www.estimize.com/bk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)","https://www.estimize.com/bax","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)","https://www.estimize.com/bdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)","https://www.estimize.com/brk.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)","https://www.estimize.com/bby","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)","https://www.estimize.com/bio","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)","https://www.estimize.com/biib","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)","https://www.estimize.com/blk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)","https://www.estimize.com/ba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)","https://www.estimize.com/bkng","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)","https://www.estimize.com/bwa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)","https://www.estimize.com/bxp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)","https://www.estimize.com/bsx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)","https://www.estimize.com/bmy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)","https://www.estimize.com/avgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)","https://www.estimize.com/br","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)","https://www.estimize.com/bf.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)","https://www.estimize.com/chrw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)","https://www.estimize.com/cog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)","https://www.estimize.com/cdns","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)","https://www.estimize.com/cpb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)","https://www.estimize.com/cof","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)","https://www.estimize.com/cah","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)","https://www.estimize.com/kmx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)","https://www.estimize.com/ccl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)","https://www.estimize.com/carr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)","https://www.estimize.com/ctlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)","https://www.estimize.com/cat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)","https://www.estimize.com/cboe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)","https://www.estimize.com/cbre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CDW (CDW)","https://www.estimize.com/cdw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Celanese (CE)","https://www.estimize.com/ce","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)","https://www.estimize.com/cnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)","https://www.estimize.com/cnp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cerner (CERN)","https://www.estimize.com/cern","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)","https://www.estimize.com/cf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)","https://www.estimize.com/schw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)","https://www.estimize.com/chtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)","https://www.estimize.com/cvx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)","https://www.estimize.com/cmg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)","https://www.estimize.com/cb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)","https://www.estimize.com/chd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cigna (CI)","https://www.estimize.com/ci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)","https://www.estimize.com/cinf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/csco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)","https://www.estimize.com/c","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)","https://www.estimize.com/cfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctxs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)","https://www.estimize.com/clx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)","https://www.estimize.com/cme","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)","https://www.estimize.com/cms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)","https://www.estimize.com/ko","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)","https://www.estimize.com/ctsh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)","https://www.estimize.com/cl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)","https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)","https://www.estimize.com/cma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)","https://www.estimize.com/cag","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)","https://www.estimize.com/cop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)","https://www.estimize.com/ed","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)","https://www.estimize.com/stz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)","https://www.estimize.com/coo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)","https://www.estimize.com/cprt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)","https://www.estimize.com/glw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)","https://www.estimize.com/ctva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)","https://www.estimize.com/cost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)","https://www.estimize.com/cci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)","https://www.estimize.com/csx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)","https://www.estimize.com/cmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)","https://www.estimize.com/cvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)","https://www.estimize.com/dhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)","https://www.estimize.com/dhr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)","https://www.estimize.com/dri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)","https://www.estimize.com/dva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)","https://www.estimize.com/de","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)","https://www.estimize.com/dal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)","https://www.estimize.com/xray","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)","https://www.estimize.com/dvn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)","https://www.estimize.com/dxcm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)","https://www.estimize.com/fang","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)","https://www.estimize.com/dlr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)","https://www.estimize.com/dfs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCA)","https://www.estimize.com/disca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCK)","https://www.estimize.com/disck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)","https://www.estimize.com/dish","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dollar General (DG)","https://www.estimize.com/dg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)","https://www.estimize.com/dltr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)","https://www.estimize.com/d","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)","https://www.estimize.com/dpz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)","https://www.estimize.com/dov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)","https://www.estimize.com/dow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)","https://www.estimize.com/dte","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)","https://www.estimize.com/duk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)","https://www.estimize.com/dre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)","https://www.estimize.com/dd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)","https://www.estimize.com/dxc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)","https://www.estimize.com/emn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)","https://www.estimize.com/etn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)","https://www.estimize.com/ebay","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)","https://www.estimize.com/ecl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)","https://www.estimize.com/ew","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)","https://www.estimize.com/ea","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)","https://www.estimize.com/emr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)","https://www.estimize.com/enph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)","https://www.estimize.com/etr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)","https://www.estimize.com/eog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)","https://www.estimize.com/efx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eqix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)","https://www.estimize.com/eqr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Essex Property Trust (ESS)","https://www.estimize.com/ess","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)","https://www.estimize.com/el","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)","https://www.estimize.com/etsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)","https://www.estimize.com/evrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)","https://www.estimize.com/es","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)","https://www.estimize.com/re","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)","https://www.estimize.com/exc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)","https://www.estimize.com/expe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)","https://www.estimize.com/expd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)","https://www.estimize.com/exr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)","https://www.estimize.com/xom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)","https://www.estimize.com/ffiv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Facebook (FB)","https://www.estimize.com/fb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)","https://www.estimize.com/fast","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)","https://www.estimize.com/frt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)","https://www.estimize.com/fdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)","https://www.estimize.com/fis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)","https://www.estimize.com/fitb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)","https://www.estimize.com/fe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)","https://www.estimize.com/frc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)","https://www.estimize.com/fisv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)","https://www.estimize.com/flt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)","https://www.estimize.com/flir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)","https://www.estimize.com/fls","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)","https://www.estimize.com/fmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)","https://www.estimize.com/f","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)","https://www.estimize.com/ftnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)","https://www.estimize.com/ftv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)","https://www.estimize.com/fbhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)","https://www.estimize.com/foxa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)","https://www.estimize.com/fox","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)","https://www.estimize.com/ben","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)","https://www.estimize.com/fcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)","https://www.estimize.com/gps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)","https://www.estimize.com/grmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)","https://www.estimize.com/it","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)","https://www.estimize.com/gd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Electric (GE)","https://www.estimize.com/ge","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Mills (GIS)","https://www.estimize.com/gis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Motors (GM)","https://www.estimize.com/gm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)","https://www.estimize.com/gpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)","https://www.estimize.com/gild","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)","https://www.estimize.com/gl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)","https://www.estimize.com/gpn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)","https://www.estimize.com/gs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)","https://www.estimize.com/gww","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)","https://www.estimize.com/hal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)","https://www.estimize.com/hbi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)","https://www.estimize.com/hig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)","https://www.estimize.com/has","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)","https://www.estimize.com/hca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)","https://www.estimize.com/peak","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)","https://www.estimize.com/hsic","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)","https://www.estimize.com/hsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)","https://www.estimize.com/hes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)","https://www.estimize.com/hpe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)","https://www.estimize.com/hlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)","https://www.estimize.com/hfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)","https://www.estimize.com/holx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Home Depot (HD)","https://www.estimize.com/hd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)","https://www.estimize.com/hon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)","https://www.estimize.com/hrl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)","https://www.estimize.com/hst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)","https://www.estimize.com/hwm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)","https://www.estimize.com/hpq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)","https://www.estimize.com/hum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)","https://www.estimize.com/hban","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)","https://www.estimize.com/hii","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)","https://www.estimize.com/iex","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)","https://www.estimize.com/idxx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)","https://www.estimize.com/info","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)","https://www.estimize.com/itw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)","https://www.estimize.com/ilmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Incyte (INCY)","https://www.estimize.com/incy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)","https://www.estimize.com/ir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)","https://www.estimize.com/intc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)","https://www.estimize.com/ice","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)","https://www.estimize.com/ibm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Paper (IP)","https://www.estimize.com/ip","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ipg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)","https://www.estimize.com/iff","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)","https://www.estimize.com/intu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)","https://www.estimize.com/isrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)","https://www.estimize.com/ivz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)","https://www.estimize.com/ipgp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)","https://www.estimize.com/iqv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)","https://www.estimize.com/irm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)","https://www.estimize.com/jkhy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)","https://www.estimize.com/j","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)","https://www.estimize.com/jbht","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)","https://www.estimize.com/sjm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)","https://www.estimize.com/jnj","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)","https://www.estimize.com/jci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)","https://www.estimize.com/jpm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)","https://www.estimize.com/jnpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)","https://www.estimize.com/ksu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)","https://www.estimize.com/k","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)","https://www.estimize.com/key","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)","https://www.estimize.com/keys","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)","https://www.estimize.com/kmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)","https://www.estimize.com/kim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)","https://www.estimize.com/kmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)","https://www.estimize.com/klac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)","https://www.estimize.com/khc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)","https://www.estimize.com/kr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)","https://www.estimize.com/lb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)","https://www.estimize.com/lhx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)","https://www.estimize.com/lh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)","https://www.estimize.com/lrcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)","https://www.estimize.com/lw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)","https://www.estimize.com/lvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)","https://www.estimize.com/leg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)","https://www.estimize.com/ldos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)","https://www.estimize.com/len","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)","https://www.estimize.com/lly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)","https://www.estimize.com/lnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)","https://www.estimize.com/lin","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)","https://www.estimize.com/lyv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)","https://www.estimize.com/lkq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)","https://www.estimize.com/lmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)","https://www.estimize.com/l","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)","https://www.estimize.com/low","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)","https://www.estimize.com/lumn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)","https://www.estimize.com/lyb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)","https://www.estimize.com/mtb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)","https://www.estimize.com/mro","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)","https://www.estimize.com/mpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)","https://www.estimize.com/mktx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)","https://www.estimize.com/mar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)","https://www.estimize.com/mmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)","https://www.estimize.com/mlm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)","https://www.estimize.com/mas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)","https://www.estimize.com/ma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)","https://www.estimize.com/mkc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)","https://www.estimize.com/mxim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)","https://www.estimize.com/mcd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)","https://www.estimize.com/mck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)","https://www.estimize.com/mdt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)","https://www.estimize.com/mrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)","https://www.estimize.com/met","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)","https://www.estimize.com/mtd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)","https://www.estimize.com/mgm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)","https://www.estimize.com/mchp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)","https://www.estimize.com/mu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)","https://www.estimize.com/msft","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)","https://www.estimize.com/maa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)","https://www.estimize.com/mhk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)","https://www.estimize.com/tap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)","https://www.estimize.com/mdlz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)","https://www.estimize.com/mpwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)","https://www.estimize.com/mnst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)","https://www.estimize.com/mco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)","https://www.estimize.com/ms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)","https://www.estimize.com/mos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)","https://www.estimize.com/msi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)","https://www.estimize.com/msci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Nasdaq (NDAQ)","https://www.estimize.com/ndaq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)","https://www.estimize.com/ntap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)","https://www.estimize.com/nflx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)","https://www.estimize.com/nwl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)","https://www.estimize.com/nem","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)","https://www.estimize.com/nwsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)","https://www.estimize.com/nws","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)","https://www.estimize.com/nee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)","https://www.estimize.com/nlsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Nike (NKE)","https://www.estimize.com/nke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)","https://www.estimize.com/ni","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)","https://www.estimize.com/nsc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/ntrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)","https://www.estimize.com/noc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)","https://www.estimize.com/nlok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)","https://www.estimize.com/nclh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)","https://www.estimize.com/nov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)","https://www.estimize.com/nrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)","https://www.estimize.com/nue","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)","https://www.estimize.com/nvda","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""NVR (NVR)","https://www.estimize.com/nvr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)","https://www.estimize.com/orly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)","https://www.estimize.com/oxy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)","https://www.estimize.com/odfl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)","https://www.estimize.com/omc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Oneok (OKE)","https://www.estimize.com/oke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)","https://www.estimize.com/orcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)","https://www.estimize.com/otis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)","https://www.estimize.com/pcar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)","https://www.estimize.com/pkg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)","https://www.estimize.com/ph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)","https://www.estimize.com/payx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)","https://www.estimize.com/payc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)","https://www.estimize.com/pypl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)","https://www.estimize.com/pnr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)","https://www.estimize.com/pbct","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)","https://www.estimize.com/pep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)","https://www.estimize.com/pki","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)","https://www.estimize.com/prgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)","https://www.estimize.com/pfe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)","https://www.estimize.com/pm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)","https://www.estimize.com/psx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)","https://www.estimize.com/pnw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)","https://www.estimize.com/pxd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)","https://www.estimize.com/pnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)","https://www.estimize.com/pool","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ppg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)","https://www.estimize.com/ppl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)","https://www.estimize.com/pfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)","https://www.estimize.com/pg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)","https://www.estimize.com/pgr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Prologis (PLD)","https://www.estimize.com/pld","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)","https://www.estimize.com/pru","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)","https://www.estimize.com/peg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)","https://www.estimize.com/psa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)","https://www.estimize.com/phm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)","https://www.estimize.com/pvh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)","https://www.estimize.com/qrvo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)","https://www.estimize.com/pwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)","https://www.estimize.com/qcom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)","https://www.estimize.com/dgx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)","https://www.estimize.com/rl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)","https://www.estimize.com/rjf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)","https://www.estimize.com/rtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)","https://www.estimize.com/o","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)","https://www.estimize.com/reg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)","https://www.estimize.com/regn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)","https://www.estimize.com/rf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)","https://www.estimize.com/rsg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ResMed (RMD)","https://www.estimize.com/rmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)","https://www.estimize.com/rhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)","https://www.estimize.com/rok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Rollins (ROL)","https://www.estimize.com/rol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)","https://www.estimize.com/rop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)","https://www.estimize.com/rost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)","https://www.estimize.com/rcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)","https://www.estimize.com/spgi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)","https://www.estimize.com/crm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)","https://www.estimize.com/sbac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)","https://www.estimize.com/slb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)","https://www.estimize.com/stx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)","https://www.estimize.com/see","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)","https://www.estimize.com/sre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)","https://www.estimize.com/now","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)","https://www.estimize.com/shw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)","https://www.estimize.com/spg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)","https://www.estimize.com/swks","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)","https://www.estimize.com/slg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)","https://www.estimize.com/sna","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Southern Company (SO)","https://www.estimize.com/so","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)","https://www.estimize.com/luv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)","https://www.estimize.com/swk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)","https://www.estimize.com/sbux","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)","https://www.estimize.com/stt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Steris (STE)","https://www.estimize.com/ste","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)","https://www.estimize.com/syk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)","https://www.estimize.com/sivb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)","https://www.estimize.com/syf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)","https://www.estimize.com/snps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)","https://www.estimize.com/syy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)","https://www.estimize.com/tmus","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)","https://www.estimize.com/trow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)","https://www.estimize.com/ttwo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Tapestry (TPR)","https://www.estimize.com/tpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)","https://www.estimize.com/tgt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)","https://www.estimize.com/tel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)","https://www.estimize.com/tdy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)","https://www.estimize.com/tfx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teradyne (TER)","https://www.estimize.com/ter","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Tesla (TSLA)","https://www.estimize.com/tsla","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)","https://www.estimize.com/txn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)","https://www.estimize.com/txt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)","https://www.estimize.com/tmo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)","https://www.estimize.com/tjx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/tsco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)","https://www.estimize.com/tt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)","https://www.estimize.com/tdg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)","https://www.estimize.com/trv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)","https://www.estimize.com/trmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)","https://www.estimize.com/tfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Twitter (TWTR)","https://www.estimize.com/twtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)","https://www.estimize.com/tyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)","https://www.estimize.com/tsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""UDR (UDR)","https://www.estimize.com/udr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)","https://www.estimize.com/ulta","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)","https://www.estimize.com/usb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)","https://www.estimize.com/uaa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)","https://www.estimize.com/ua","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)","https://www.estimize.com/unp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)","https://www.estimize.com/ual","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)","https://www.estimize.com/unh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)","https://www.estimize.com/ups","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""United Rentals (URI)","https://www.estimize.com/uri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)","https://www.estimize.com/uhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)","https://www.estimize.com/unm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)","https://www.estimize.com/vlo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)","https://www.estimize.com/var","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)","https://www.estimize.com/vtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)","https://www.estimize.com/vz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)","https://www.estimize.com/vrtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)","https://www.estimize.com/vfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)","https://www.estimize.com/viac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/vtrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)","https://www.estimize.com/v","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vontier (VNT)","https://www.estimize.com/vnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)","https://www.estimize.com/vno","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)","https://www.estimize.com/vmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)","https://www.estimize.com/wrb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)","https://www.estimize.com/wab","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Walmart (WMT)","https://www.estimize.com/wmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)","https://www.estimize.com/wba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)","https://www.estimize.com/dis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)","https://www.estimize.com/wm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)","https://www.estimize.com/wat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)","https://www.estimize.com/wec","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)","https://www.estimize.com/wfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)","https://www.estimize.com/well","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)","https://www.estimize.com/wst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)","https://www.estimize.com/wdc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)","https://www.estimize.com/wu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for WestRock (WRK)","https://www.estimize.com/wrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)","https://www.estimize.com/wy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)","https://www.estimize.com/whr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)","https://www.estimize.com/wmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)","https://www.estimize.com/wltw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)","https://www.estimize.com/wynn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)","https://www.estimize.com/xel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xerox (XRX)","https://www.estimize.com/xrx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)","https://www.estimize.com/xlnx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)","https://www.estimize.com/xyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)","https://www.estimize.com/yum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)","https://www.estimize.com/zbra","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)","https://www.estimize.com/zbh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)","https://www.estimize.com/zion","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)","https://www.estimize.com/zts","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Estimates for Security (Symbol) https://www.estimize.com/symbol Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
3 Estimates for 3M Company (MMM) https://www.estimize.com/mmm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
4 Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT) https://www.estimize.com/abt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
5 Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) https://www.estimize.com/abbv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
6 Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD) https://www.estimize.com/abmd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
7 Estimates for Accenture (ACN) https://www.estimize.com/acn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
8 Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI) https://www.estimize.com/atvi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
9 Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) https://www.estimize.com/adbe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
10 Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) https://www.estimize.com/amd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
11 Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) https://www.estimize.com/aap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
12 Estimates for AES Corp (AES) https://www.estimize.com/aes Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
13 Estimates for Aflac (AFL) https://www.estimize.com/afl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
14 Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A) https://www.estimize.com/a Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
15 Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD) https://www.estimize.com/apd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
16 Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM) https://www.estimize.com/akam Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
17 Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK) https://www.estimize.com/alk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
18 Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB) https://www.estimize.com/alb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
19 Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) https://www.estimize.com/are Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
20 Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) https://www.estimize.com/alxn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
21 Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN) https://www.estimize.com/algn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
22 Estimates for Allegion (ALLE) https://www.estimize.com/alle Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
23 Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT) https://www.estimize.com/lnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
24 Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL) https://www.estimize.com/all Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
25 Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) https://www.estimize.com/googl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
26 Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) https://www.estimize.com/goog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
27 Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO) https://www.estimize.com/mo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
28 Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) https://www.estimize.com/amzn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
29 Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR) https://www.estimize.com/amcr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
30 Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE) https://www.estimize.com/aee Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
31 Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL) https://www.estimize.com/aal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
32 Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP) https://www.estimize.com/aep Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
33 Estimates for American Express (AXP) https://www.estimize.com/axp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
34 Estimates for American International Group (AIG) https://www.estimize.com/aig Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
35 Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT) https://www.estimize.com/amt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
36 Estimates for American Water Works (AWK) https://www.estimize.com/awk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
37 Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP) https://www.estimize.com/amp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
38 Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC) https://www.estimize.com/abc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
39 Estimates for Ametek (AME) https://www.estimize.com/ame Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
40 Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) https://www.estimize.com/amgn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
41 Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH) https://www.estimize.com/aph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
42 Estimates for "Analog Devices (ADI) https://www.estimize.com/adi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
43 Estimates for "ANSYS (ANSS) https://www.estimize.com/anss Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
44 Estimates for Anthem (ANTM) https://www.estimize.com/antm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
45 Estimates for Aon plc (AON) https://www.estimize.com/aon Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
46 Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS) https://www.estimize.com/aos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
47 Estimates for APA Corporation (APA) https://www.estimize.com/apa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
48 Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL) https://www.estimize.com/aapl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
49 Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) https://www.estimize.com/amat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
50 Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV) https://www.estimize.com/aptv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
51 Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) https://www.estimize.com/adm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
52 Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET) https://www.estimize.com/anet Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
53 Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) https://www.estimize.com/ajg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
54 Estimates for Assurant (AIZ) https://www.estimize.com/aiz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
55 Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T) https://www.estimize.com/t Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
56 Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO) https://www.estimize.com/ato Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
57 Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) https://www.estimize.com/adsk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
58 Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP) https://www.estimize.com/adp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
59 Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO) https://www.estimize.com/azo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
60 Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB) https://www.estimize.com/avb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
61 Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY) https://www.estimize.com/avy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
62 Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR) https://www.estimize.com/bkr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
63 Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL) https://www.estimize.com/bll Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
64 Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC) https://www.estimize.com/bac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
65 Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK) https://www.estimize.com/bk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
66 Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX) https://www.estimize.com/bax Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
67 Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX) https://www.estimize.com/bdx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
68 Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) https://www.estimize.com/brk.b Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
69 Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) https://www.estimize.com/bby Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
70 Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) https://www.estimize.com/bio Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
71 Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB) https://www.estimize.com/biib Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
72 Estimates for BlackRock (BLK) https://www.estimize.com/blk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
73 Estimates for Boeing Company (BA) https://www.estimize.com/ba Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
74 Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) https://www.estimize.com/bkng Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
75 Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA) https://www.estimize.com/bwa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
76 Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP) https://www.estimize.com/bxp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
77 Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX) https://www.estimize.com/bsx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
78 Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) https://www.estimize.com/bmy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
79 Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) https://www.estimize.com/avgo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
80 Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) https://www.estimize.com/br Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
81 Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B) https://www.estimize.com/bf.b Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
82 Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) https://www.estimize.com/chrw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
83 Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) https://www.estimize.com/cog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
84 Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) https://www.estimize.com/cdns Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
85 Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB) https://www.estimize.com/cpb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
86 Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF) https://www.estimize.com/cof Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
87 Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) https://www.estimize.com/cah Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
88 Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX) https://www.estimize.com/kmx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
89 Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL) https://www.estimize.com/ccl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
90 Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR) https://www.estimize.com/carr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
91 Estimates for Catalent (CTLT) https://www.estimize.com/ctlt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
92 Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) https://www.estimize.com/cat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
93 Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) https://www.estimize.com/cboe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
94 Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE) https://www.estimize.com/cbre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
95 Estimates for CDW (CDW) https://www.estimize.com/cdw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
96 Estimates for Celanese (CE) https://www.estimize.com/ce Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
97 Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC) https://www.estimize.com/cnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
98 Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP) https://www.estimize.com/cnp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
99 Estimates for Cerner (CERN) https://www.estimize.com/cern Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
100 Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) https://www.estimize.com/cf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
101 Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) https://www.estimize.com/schw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
102 Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR) https://www.estimize.com/chtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
103 Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX) https://www.estimize.com/cvx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
104 Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) https://www.estimize.com/cmg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
105 Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB) https://www.estimize.com/cb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
106 Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD) https://www.estimize.com/chd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
107 Estimates for Cigna (CI) https://www.estimize.com/ci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
108 Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF) https://www.estimize.com/cinf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
109 Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS) https://www.estimize.com/ctas Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
110 Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO) https://www.estimize.com/csco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
111 Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C) https://www.estimize.com/c Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
112 Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG) https://www.estimize.com/cfg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
113 Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS) https://www.estimize.com/ctxs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
114 Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX) https://www.estimize.com/clx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
115 Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME) https://www.estimize.com/cme Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
116 Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS) https://www.estimize.com/cms Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
117 Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO) https://www.estimize.com/ko Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
118 Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) https://www.estimize.com/ctsh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
119 Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL) https://www.estimize.com/cl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
120 Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
121 Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA) https://www.estimize.com/cma Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
122 Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG) https://www.estimize.com/cag Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
123 Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP) https://www.estimize.com/cop Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
124 Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED) https://www.estimize.com/ed Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
125 Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ) https://www.estimize.com/stz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
126 Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO) https://www.estimize.com/coo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
127 Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT) https://www.estimize.com/cprt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
128 Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW) https://www.estimize.com/glw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
129 Estimates for Corteva (CTVA) https://www.estimize.com/ctva Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
130 Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) https://www.estimize.com/cost Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
131 Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI) https://www.estimize.com/cci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
132 Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX) https://www.estimize.com/csx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
133 Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI) https://www.estimize.com/cmi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
134 Estimates for CVS Health (CVS) https://www.estimize.com/cvs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
135 Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI) https://www.estimize.com/dhi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
136 Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR) https://www.estimize.com/dhr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
137 Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI) https://www.estimize.com/dri Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
138 Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA) https://www.estimize.com/dva Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
139 Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE) https://www.estimize.com/de Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
140 Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) https://www.estimize.com/dal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
141 Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) https://www.estimize.com/xray Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
142 Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN) https://www.estimize.com/dvn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
143 Estimates for DexCom (DXCM) https://www.estimize.com/dxcm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
144 Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG) https://www.estimize.com/fang Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
145 Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) https://www.estimize.com/dlr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
146 Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS) https://www.estimize.com/dfs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
147 Estimates for "Discovery (DISCA) https://www.estimize.com/disca Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
148 Estimates for "Discovery (DISCK) https://www.estimize.com/disck Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
149 Estimates for Dish Network (DISH) https://www.estimize.com/dish Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
150 Estimates for Dollar General (DG) https://www.estimize.com/dg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
151 Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR) https://www.estimize.com/dltr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
152 Estimates for Dominion Energy (D) https://www.estimize.com/d Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
153 Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ) https://www.estimize.com/dpz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
154 Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV) https://www.estimize.com/dov Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
155 Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW) https://www.estimize.com/dow Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
156 Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE) https://www.estimize.com/dte Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
157 Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK) https://www.estimize.com/duk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
158 Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE) https://www.estimize.com/dre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
159 Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD) https://www.estimize.com/dd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
160 Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC) https://www.estimize.com/dxc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
161 Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN) https://www.estimize.com/emn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
162 Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN) https://www.estimize.com/etn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
163 Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY) https://www.estimize.com/ebay Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
164 Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL) https://www.estimize.com/ecl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
165 Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX) https://www.estimize.com/eix Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
166 Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW) https://www.estimize.com/ew Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
167 Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA) https://www.estimize.com/ea Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
168 Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR) https://www.estimize.com/emr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
169 Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH) https://www.estimize.com/enph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
170 Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR) https://www.estimize.com/etr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
171 Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG) https://www.estimize.com/eog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
172 Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX) https://www.estimize.com/efx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
173 Estimates for Equinix (EQIX) https://www.estimize.com/eqix Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
174 Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR) https://www.estimize.com/eqr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
175 Estimates for "Essex Property Trust (ESS) https://www.estimize.com/ess Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
176 Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL) https://www.estimize.com/el Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
177 Estimates for Etsy (ETSY) https://www.estimize.com/etsy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
178 Estimates for Evergy (EVRG) https://www.estimize.com/evrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
179 Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES) https://www.estimize.com/es Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
180 Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE) https://www.estimize.com/re Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
181 Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC) https://www.estimize.com/exc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
182 Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE) https://www.estimize.com/expe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
183 Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD) https://www.estimize.com/expd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
184 Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR) https://www.estimize.com/exr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
185 Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) https://www.estimize.com/xom Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
186 Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV) https://www.estimize.com/ffiv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
187 Estimates for "Facebook (FB) https://www.estimize.com/fb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
188 Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST) https://www.estimize.com/fast Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
189 Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) https://www.estimize.com/frt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
190 Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX) https://www.estimize.com/fdx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
191 Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) https://www.estimize.com/fis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
192 Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) https://www.estimize.com/fitb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
193 Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE) https://www.estimize.com/fe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
194 Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC) https://www.estimize.com/frc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
195 Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV) https://www.estimize.com/fisv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
196 Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT) https://www.estimize.com/flt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
197 Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR) https://www.estimize.com/flir Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
198 Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS) https://www.estimize.com/fls Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
199 Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC) https://www.estimize.com/fmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
200 Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F) https://www.estimize.com/f Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
201 Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT) https://www.estimize.com/ftnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
202 Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV) https://www.estimize.com/ftv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
203 Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) https://www.estimize.com/fbhs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
204 Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA) https://www.estimize.com/foxa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
205 Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX) https://www.estimize.com/fox Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
206 Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN) https://www.estimize.com/ben Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
207 Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) https://www.estimize.com/fcx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
208 Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS) https://www.estimize.com/gps Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
209 Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) https://www.estimize.com/grmn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
210 Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT) https://www.estimize.com/it Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
211 Estimates for General Dynamics (GD) https://www.estimize.com/gd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
212 Estimates for General Electric (GE) https://www.estimize.com/ge Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
213 Estimates for General Mills (GIS) https://www.estimize.com/gis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
214 Estimates for General Motors (GM) https://www.estimize.com/gm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
215 Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC) https://www.estimize.com/gpc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
216 Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD) https://www.estimize.com/gild Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
217 Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL) https://www.estimize.com/gl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
218 Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN) https://www.estimize.com/gpn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
219 Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS) https://www.estimize.com/gs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
220 Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW) https://www.estimize.com/gww Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
221 Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL) https://www.estimize.com/hal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
222 Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI) https://www.estimize.com/hbi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
223 Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG) https://www.estimize.com/hig Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
224 Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS) https://www.estimize.com/has Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
225 Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA) https://www.estimize.com/hca Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
226 Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) https://www.estimize.com/peak Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
227 Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC) https://www.estimize.com/hsic Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
228 Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY) https://www.estimize.com/hsy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
229 Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES) https://www.estimize.com/hes Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
230 Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) https://www.estimize.com/hpe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
231 Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) https://www.estimize.com/hlt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
232 Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC) https://www.estimize.com/hfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
233 Estimates for Hologic (HOLX) https://www.estimize.com/holx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
234 Estimates for Home Depot (HD) https://www.estimize.com/hd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
235 Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON) https://www.estimize.com/hon Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
236 Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) https://www.estimize.com/hrl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
237 Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) https://www.estimize.com/hst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
238 Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM) https://www.estimize.com/hwm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
239 Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ) https://www.estimize.com/hpq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
240 Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM) https://www.estimize.com/hum Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
241 Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) https://www.estimize.com/hban Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
242 Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) https://www.estimize.com/hii Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
243 Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX) https://www.estimize.com/iex Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
244 Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) https://www.estimize.com/idxx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
245 Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO) https://www.estimize.com/info Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
246 Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) https://www.estimize.com/itw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
247 Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN) https://www.estimize.com/ilmn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
248 Estimates for Incyte (INCY) https://www.estimize.com/incy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
249 Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR) https://www.estimize.com/ir Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
250 Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC) https://www.estimize.com/intc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
251 Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) https://www.estimize.com/ice Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
252 Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM) https://www.estimize.com/ibm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
253 Estimates for International Paper (IP) https://www.estimize.com/ip Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
254 Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG) https://www.estimize.com/ipg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
255 Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) https://www.estimize.com/iff Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
256 Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU) https://www.estimize.com/intu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
257 Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) https://www.estimize.com/isrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
258 Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) https://www.estimize.com/ivz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
259 Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP) https://www.estimize.com/ipgp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
260 Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) https://www.estimize.com/iqv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
261 Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) https://www.estimize.com/irm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
262 Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) https://www.estimize.com/jkhy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
263 Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J) https://www.estimize.com/j Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
264 Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) https://www.estimize.com/jbht Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
265 Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM) https://www.estimize.com/sjm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
266 Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) https://www.estimize.com/jnj Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
267 Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI) https://www.estimize.com/jci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
268 Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) https://www.estimize.com/jpm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
269 Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR) https://www.estimize.com/jnpr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
270 Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU) https://www.estimize.com/ksu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
271 Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K) https://www.estimize.com/k Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
272 Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY) https://www.estimize.com/key Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
273 Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS) https://www.estimize.com/keys Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
274 Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB) https://www.estimize.com/kmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
275 Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM) https://www.estimize.com/kim Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
276 Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI) https://www.estimize.com/kmi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
277 Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC) https://www.estimize.com/klac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
278 Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) https://www.estimize.com/khc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
279 Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR) https://www.estimize.com/kr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
280 Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB) https://www.estimize.com/lb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
281 Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX) https://www.estimize.com/lhx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
282 Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH) https://www.estimize.com/lh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
283 Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX) https://www.estimize.com/lrcx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
284 Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) https://www.estimize.com/lw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
285 Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS) https://www.estimize.com/lvs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
286 Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG) https://www.estimize.com/leg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
287 Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS) https://www.estimize.com/ldos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
288 Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN) https://www.estimize.com/len Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
289 Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY) https://www.estimize.com/lly Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
290 Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC) https://www.estimize.com/lnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
291 Estimates for Linde plc (LIN) https://www.estimize.com/lin Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
292 Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) https://www.estimize.com/lyv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
293 Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ) https://www.estimize.com/lkq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
294 Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) https://www.estimize.com/lmt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
295 Estimates for Loews Corp. (L) https://www.estimize.com/l Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
296 Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW) https://www.estimize.com/low Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
297 Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN) https://www.estimize.com/lumn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
298 Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB) https://www.estimize.com/lyb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
299 Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB) https://www.estimize.com/mtb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
300 Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) https://www.estimize.com/mro Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
301 Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) https://www.estimize.com/mpc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
302 Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX) https://www.estimize.com/mktx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
303 Estimates for Marriott International (MAR) https://www.estimize.com/mar Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
304 Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC) https://www.estimize.com/mmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
305 Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) https://www.estimize.com/mlm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
306 Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS) https://www.estimize.com/mas Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
307 Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA) https://www.estimize.com/ma Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
308 Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC) https://www.estimize.com/mkc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
309 Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) https://www.estimize.com/mxim Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
310 Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD) https://www.estimize.com/mcd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
311 Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK) https://www.estimize.com/mck Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
312 Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT) https://www.estimize.com/mdt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
313 Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK) https://www.estimize.com/mrk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
314 Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET) https://www.estimize.com/met Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
315 Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD) https://www.estimize.com/mtd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
316 Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM) https://www.estimize.com/mgm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
317 Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP) https://www.estimize.com/mchp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
318 Estimates for Micron Technology (MU) https://www.estimize.com/mu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
319 Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) https://www.estimize.com/msft Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
320 Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA) https://www.estimize.com/maa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
321 Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK) https://www.estimize.com/mhk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
322 Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) https://www.estimize.com/tap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
323 Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ) https://www.estimize.com/mdlz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
324 Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) https://www.estimize.com/mpwr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
325 Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST) https://www.estimize.com/mnst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
326 Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO) https://www.estimize.com/mco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
327 Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS) https://www.estimize.com/ms Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
328 Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS) https://www.estimize.com/mos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
329 Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI) https://www.estimize.com/msi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
330 Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI) https://www.estimize.com/msci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
331 Estimates for "Nasdaq (NDAQ) https://www.estimize.com/ndaq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
332 Estimates for NetApp (NTAP) https://www.estimize.com/ntap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
333 Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX) https://www.estimize.com/nflx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
334 Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL) https://www.estimize.com/nwl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
335 Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM) https://www.estimize.com/nem Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
336 Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA) https://www.estimize.com/nwsa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
337 Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS) https://www.estimize.com/nws Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
338 Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE) https://www.estimize.com/nee Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
339 Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) https://www.estimize.com/nlsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
340 Estimates for "Nike (NKE) https://www.estimize.com/nke Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
341 Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI) https://www.estimize.com/ni Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
342 Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) https://www.estimize.com/nsc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
343 Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS) https://www.estimize.com/ntrs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
344 Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC) https://www.estimize.com/noc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
345 Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK) https://www.estimize.com/nlok Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
346 Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) https://www.estimize.com/nclh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
347 Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV) https://www.estimize.com/nov Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
348 Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG) https://www.estimize.com/nrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
349 Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE) https://www.estimize.com/nue Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
350 Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) https://www.estimize.com/nvda Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
351 Estimates for "NVR (NVR) https://www.estimize.com/nvr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
352 Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) https://www.estimize.com/orly Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
353 Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) https://www.estimize.com/oxy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
354 Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) https://www.estimize.com/odfl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
355 Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC) https://www.estimize.com/omc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
356 Estimates for Oneok (OKE) https://www.estimize.com/oke Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
357 Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) https://www.estimize.com/orcl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
358 Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS) https://www.estimize.com/otis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
359 Estimates for Paccar (PCAR) https://www.estimize.com/pcar Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
360 Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) https://www.estimize.com/pkg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
361 Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH) https://www.estimize.com/ph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
362 Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX) https://www.estimize.com/payx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
363 Estimates for Paycom (PAYC) https://www.estimize.com/payc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
364 Estimates for PayPal (PYPL) https://www.estimize.com/pypl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
365 Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR) https://www.estimize.com/pnr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
366 Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT) https://www.estimize.com/pbct Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
367 Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) https://www.estimize.com/pep Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
368 Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI) https://www.estimize.com/pki Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
369 Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO) https://www.estimize.com/prgo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
370 Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE) https://www.estimize.com/pfe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
371 Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM) https://www.estimize.com/pm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
372 Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX) https://www.estimize.com/psx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
373 Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) https://www.estimize.com/pnw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
374 Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) https://www.estimize.com/pxd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
375 Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC) https://www.estimize.com/pnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
376 Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL) https://www.estimize.com/pool Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
377 Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG) https://www.estimize.com/ppg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
378 Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL) https://www.estimize.com/ppl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
379 Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG) https://www.estimize.com/pfg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
380 Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG) https://www.estimize.com/pg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
381 Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR) https://www.estimize.com/pgr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
382 Estimates for Prologis (PLD) https://www.estimize.com/pld Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
383 Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU) https://www.estimize.com/pru Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
384 Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG) https://www.estimize.com/peg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
385 Estimates for Public Storage (PSA) https://www.estimize.com/psa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
386 Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM) https://www.estimize.com/phm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
387 Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH) https://www.estimize.com/pvh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
388 Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO) https://www.estimize.com/qrvo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
389 Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR) https://www.estimize.com/pwr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
390 Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM) https://www.estimize.com/qcom Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
391 Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX) https://www.estimize.com/dgx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
392 Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) https://www.estimize.com/rl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
393 Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF) https://www.estimize.com/rjf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
394 Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX) https://www.estimize.com/rtx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
395 Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O) https://www.estimize.com/o Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
396 Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG) https://www.estimize.com/reg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
397 Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) https://www.estimize.com/regn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
398 Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF) https://www.estimize.com/rf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
399 Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG) https://www.estimize.com/rsg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
400 Estimates for ResMed (RMD) https://www.estimize.com/rmd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
401 Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI) https://www.estimize.com/rhi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
402 Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) https://www.estimize.com/rok Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
403 Estimates for "Rollins (ROL) https://www.estimize.com/rol Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
404 Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP) https://www.estimize.com/rop Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
405 Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST) https://www.estimize.com/rost Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
406 Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) https://www.estimize.com/rcl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
407 Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) https://www.estimize.com/spgi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
408 Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM) https://www.estimize.com/crm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
409 Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC) https://www.estimize.com/sbac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
410 Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) https://www.estimize.com/slb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
411 Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX) https://www.estimize.com/stx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
412 Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE) https://www.estimize.com/see Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
413 Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE) https://www.estimize.com/sre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
414 Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW) https://www.estimize.com/now Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
415 Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW) https://www.estimize.com/shw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
416 Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) https://www.estimize.com/spg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
417 Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) https://www.estimize.com/swks Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
418 Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG) https://www.estimize.com/slg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
419 Estimates for Snap-on (SNA) https://www.estimize.com/sna Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
420 Estimates for Southern Company (SO) https://www.estimize.com/so Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
421 Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV) https://www.estimize.com/luv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
422 Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) https://www.estimize.com/swk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
423 Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) https://www.estimize.com/sbux Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
424 Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT) https://www.estimize.com/stt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
425 Estimates for Steris (STE) https://www.estimize.com/ste Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
426 Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK) https://www.estimize.com/syk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
427 Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB) https://www.estimize.com/sivb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
428 Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF) https://www.estimize.com/syf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
429 Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) https://www.estimize.com/snps Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
430 Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY) https://www.estimize.com/syy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
431 Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS) https://www.estimize.com/tmus Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
432 Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) https://www.estimize.com/trow Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
433 Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) https://www.estimize.com/ttwo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
434 Estimates for "Tapestry (TPR) https://www.estimize.com/tpr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
435 Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT) https://www.estimize.com/tgt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
436 Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) https://www.estimize.com/tel Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
437 Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY) https://www.estimize.com/tdy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
438 Estimates for Teleflex (TFX) https://www.estimize.com/tfx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
439 Estimates for Teradyne (TER) https://www.estimize.com/ter Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
440 Estimates for "Tesla (TSLA) https://www.estimize.com/tsla Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
441 Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN) https://www.estimize.com/txn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
442 Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT) https://www.estimize.com/txt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
443 Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) https://www.estimize.com/tmo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
444 Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) https://www.estimize.com/tjx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
445 Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) https://www.estimize.com/tsco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
446 Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT) https://www.estimize.com/tt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
447 Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG) https://www.estimize.com/tdg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
448 Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV) https://www.estimize.com/trv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
449 Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB) https://www.estimize.com/trmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
450 Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC) https://www.estimize.com/tfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
451 Estimates for "Twitter (TWTR) https://www.estimize.com/twtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
452 Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL) https://www.estimize.com/tyl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
453 Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN) https://www.estimize.com/tsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
454 Estimates for "UDR (UDR) https://www.estimize.com/udr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
455 Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) https://www.estimize.com/ulta Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
456 Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB) https://www.estimize.com/usb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
457 Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA) https://www.estimize.com/uaa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
458 Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA) https://www.estimize.com/ua Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
459 Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP) https://www.estimize.com/unp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
460 Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL) https://www.estimize.com/ual Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
461 Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) https://www.estimize.com/unh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
462 Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS) https://www.estimize.com/ups Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
463 Estimates for "United Rentals (URI) https://www.estimize.com/uri Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
464 Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS) https://www.estimize.com/uhs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
465 Estimates for Unum Group (UNM) https://www.estimize.com/unm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
466 Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO) https://www.estimize.com/vlo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
467 Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR) https://www.estimize.com/var Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
468 Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR) https://www.estimize.com/vtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
469 Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN) https://www.estimize.com/vrsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
470 Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK) https://www.estimize.com/vrsk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
471 Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ) https://www.estimize.com/vz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
472 Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) https://www.estimize.com/vrtx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
473 Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC) https://www.estimize.com/vfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
474 Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC) https://www.estimize.com/viac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
475 Estimates for Viatris (VTRS) https://www.estimize.com/vtrs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
476 Estimates for Visa Inc. (V) https://www.estimize.com/v Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
477 Estimates for Vontier (VNT) https://www.estimize.com/vnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
478 Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) https://www.estimize.com/vno Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
479 Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC) https://www.estimize.com/vmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
480 Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) https://www.estimize.com/wrb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
481 Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB) https://www.estimize.com/wab Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
482 Estimates for Walmart (WMT) https://www.estimize.com/wmt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
483 Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) https://www.estimize.com/wba Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
484 Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS) https://www.estimize.com/dis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
485 Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM) https://www.estimize.com/wm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
486 Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT) https://www.estimize.com/wat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
487 Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC) https://www.estimize.com/wec Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
488 Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC) https://www.estimize.com/wfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
489 Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL) https://www.estimize.com/well Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
490 Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) https://www.estimize.com/wst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
491 Estimates for Western Digital (WDC) https://www.estimize.com/wdc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
492 Estimates for Western Union Co (WU) https://www.estimize.com/wu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
493 Estimates for WestRock (WRK) https://www.estimize.com/wrk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
494 Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY) https://www.estimize.com/wy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
495 Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) https://www.estimize.com/whr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
496 Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB) https://www.estimize.com/wmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
497 Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW) https://www.estimize.com/wltw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
498 Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) https://www.estimize.com/wynn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
499 Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) https://www.estimize.com/xel Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
500 Estimates for Xerox (XRX) https://www.estimize.com/xrx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
501 Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX) https://www.estimize.com/xlnx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
502 Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL) https://www.estimize.com/xyl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
503 Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) https://www.estimize.com/yum Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
504 Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) https://www.estimize.com/zbra Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
505 Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) https://www.estimize.com/zbh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
506 Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION) https://www.estimize.com/zion Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
507 Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS) https://www.estimize.com/zts Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2

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data/foretold-questions.csv
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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
"% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9","Foretold","","[]",5.5,,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",4,,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Logical Induction"" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems"" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1.5,,2
"By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
"Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7.5,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
"How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
"Will MIRI still exist in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9233333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
"How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131","Foretold","","[]",8,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Embedded Agency"" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
"What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5033333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7866666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14666666666666672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23333333333333328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",6,,2
"At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",8,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
"Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507","Foretold","","[]",27,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463","Foretold","","[]",49.5,,2
"When will the outbreak end?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70","Foretold","","[]",25.5,,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
"How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"Will Labour win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
"Will Conservatives win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
"If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
"If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
"When will the next UK general election be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11.5,,2
"Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67 Foretold [] 2.5 2
3 % global rate of "$1.90 a day" poverty in 2030 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9 Foretold [] 5.5 2
4 A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4 2
5 A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3 2
6 How many papers will cite "Logical Induction" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde Foretold [] 2 2
7 How many papers will cite "Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573 Foretold [] 1 2
8 Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1.5 2
9 By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac Foretold [] 4.5 2
10 Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30500000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
11 5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.245,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.755,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7.5 2
12 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10 Foretold [] 2 2
13 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d Foretold [] 4 2
14 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7 Foretold [] 7 2
15 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd Foretold [] 1 2
16 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620 Foretold [] 1 2
17 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14 Foretold [] 2 2
18 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924 Foretold [] 2 2
19 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6 Foretold [] 15 2
20 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d Foretold [] 3 2
21 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4 Foretold [] 2 2
22 What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df Foretold [] 5 2
23 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889 Foretold [] 6 2
24 How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781 Foretold [] 6.5 2
25 Will MIRI still exist in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9233333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.07666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7 2
26 How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893 Foretold [] 2 2
27 Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
28 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131 Foretold [] 8 2
29 How many papers will cite "Embedded Agency" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de Foretold [] 7 2
30 What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a Foretold [] 3 2
31 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406 Foretold [] 2.5 2
32 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a Foretold [] 4 2
33 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc Foretold [] 5 2
34 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534 Foretold [] 4 2
35 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b Foretold [] 5 2
36 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53 Foretold [] 4 2
37 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
38 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
39 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
40 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5033333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
41 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7866666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21333333333333326,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
42 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14666666666666672,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
43 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23333333333333328,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
44 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16666666666666674,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
45 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee Foretold [] 6 2
46 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353 Foretold [] 4 2
47 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f Foretold [] 5 2
48 At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17500000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
49 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b Foretold [] 5 2
50 At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41000000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 6 2
51 At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42500000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
52 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
53 Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 8 2
54 At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d Foretold [] 15 2
55 Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 9.5 2
56 At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507 Foretold [] 27 2
57 At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463 Foretold [] 49.5 2
58 When will the outbreak end? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70 Foretold [] 25.5 2
59 By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4 Foretold [] 2 2
60 By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930 Foretold [] 2 2
61 By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8 Foretold [] 3.5 2
62 How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8 Foretold [] 3 2
63 By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb Foretold [] 1 2
64 By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7 Foretold [] 1 2
65 By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570 Foretold [] 1 2
66 By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce Foretold [] 1 2
67 By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000 Foretold [] 1 2
68 By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483 Foretold [] 1 2
69 How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d Foretold [] 4.5 2
70 By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea Foretold [] 3.5 2
71 By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b Foretold [] 5 2
72 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826 Foretold [] 6.5 2
73 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1 Foretold [] 3 2
74 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09 Foretold [] 3 2
75 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
76 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
77 How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878 Foretold [] 1 2
78 Will Labour win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7 2
79 Will Conservatives win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 9.5 2
80 If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
81 If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
82 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91 Foretold [] 5 2
83 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
84 Will Brexit be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3.5 2
85 If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3.5 2
86 When will the next UK general election be? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d Foretold [] 4 2
87 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
88 If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6799999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11.5 2
89 Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
90 What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec Foretold [] 3 2
91 If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126 Foretold [] 1 2
92 If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313 Foretold [] 3 2
93 What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8 Foretold [] 3 2

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data/givewellopenphil-questions.csv
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@ -1,164 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Actual estimate was ""small probability, close to 0%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Actual estimate was ""<10%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2016","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives still operates in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"This grant does not lead to any new top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We recommend a second grant to CPSP","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to IGI","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health becomes a top charity.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020 https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023 https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
6 Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation) https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Actual estimate was "small probability, close to 0%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF: https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Actual estimate was "<10%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 New Incentives is a top charity in 2016 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 New Incentives is a top charity in 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 New Incentives is a top charity in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 New Incentives still operates in 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 This grant does not lead to any new top charities. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
93 The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
94 The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
95 The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
96 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
97 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
98 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
99 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
100 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
101 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
102 The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
103 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
104 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
105 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
106 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
107 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
108 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
109 At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
110 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
111 Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
112 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
113 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
114 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
115 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
116 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
117 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
118 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
119 By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
120 By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
121 By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
122 By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
123 By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
124 By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
125 By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
126 By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
127 We recommend a second grant to CPSP https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
128 Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
129 Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
130 Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
131 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
132 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
133 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
134 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
135 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
136 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
137 GiveWell makes another grant to IGI https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
138 IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
139 At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
140 Fortify Health becomes a top charity. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
141 Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
142 Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
143 Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
144 Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
145 Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
146 Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
147 GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
148 Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
149 Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
150 Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
151 GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
152 GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
153 We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
154 Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
155 CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
156 CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
157 We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
158 This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
159 80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
160 80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
161 80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
162 80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
163 80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
164 The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016% https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2

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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href=""https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href=""http://www.ev-volumes.com"" target=""_blank"">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2020 was <a href=""http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/"" target=""_blank"">4.2%</a>.","[{""name"":""Less than 4.0%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles"" target=""_blank"">OPEC</a> <a href=""https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/"" target=""_blank"">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm"" target=""_blank"">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf"" target=""_blank"">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","[{""name"":""Less than 21 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory ""carbon pricing mechanism"" become law before 1 January 2023?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href=""https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/"" target=""_blank"">policy</a> <a href=""https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool"" target=""_blank"">options</a> to impose <a href=""https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf"" target=""_blank"">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a ""carbon <a href=""https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing"" target=""_blank"">pricing</a> mechanism"" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href=""https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en"" target=""_blank"">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href=""https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program"" target=""_blank"">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href=""https://www.rggi.org"" target=""_blank"">Initiative</a>.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""<a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70"" target=""_blank"">next waves</a>"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href=""https://covid19.who.int/"" target=""_blank"">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href=""https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/"" target=""_blank"">here</a> each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The <a href=""https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020"" target=""_blank"">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=""https://tokyo2020.org/en/"" target=""_blank"">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=""https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again"" target=""_blank"">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=""https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html"" target=""_blank"">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic" target="_blank">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com" target="_blank">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2020 was <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/" target="_blank">4.2%</a>. [{"name":"Less than 4.0%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.0%","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
3 What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles" target="_blank">OPEC</a> <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/" target="_blank">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm" target="_blank">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf" target="_blank">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021. [{"name":"Less than 21 million barrels per day","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30 million barrels per day","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
4 Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory "carbon pricing mechanism" become law before 1 January 2023?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/" target="_blank">policy</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool" target="_blank">options</a> to impose <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf" target="_blank">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a "carbon <a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing" target="_blank">pricing</a> mechanism" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en" target="_blank">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program" target="_blank">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href="https://www.rggi.org" target="_blank">Initiative</a>. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
5 When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows" target="_blank">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the "TABLE" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for "World," and see the relevant number in the column titled "End." The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
6 How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083" target="_blank">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438. [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
7 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
8 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
9 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
10 As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as "<a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70" target="_blank">next waves</a>" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/" target="_blank">here</a> each day. [{"name":"Less than 275,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 300,000 but less than 350,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
11 When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
12 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
13 What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
14 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
15 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
16 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021. [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
17 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
18 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4

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@ -1,478 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971-will-restaurants-in-new-york-city-nyc-be-permitted-to-offer-indoor-dining-at-85-capacity-or-more-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic ([Spectrum News](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline), [WABC](https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/)). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity ([nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page), [nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide](https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide)). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","0","0",3
"Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., ""tear gas""), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3
"Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election","Good Judgment Open","Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","60",3
"What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $100 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""$180 billion or more"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","28","24",3
"At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","55","50",3
"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO.
","[{""name"":""Less than 100.0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110.0 but less than 120.0"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130.0"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","33",3
"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for ""All items"" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","67",3
"Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year","Good Judgment Open","The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79","57",3
"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","52","37",3
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","103","70",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","181","111",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","72",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","95","70",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64","41",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","164","96",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","59","37",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","173","62",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","153","47",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","462","105",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. 
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","588","154",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","100",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141","81",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","41",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","512","369",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","399","264",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","416","339",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","189",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298","197",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79","26",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","180","92",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","154","53",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","137","57",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","539","347",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","80","48",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","184","80",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","75",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","53",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","117",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","140",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","183","123",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","87",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148","53",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","157","86",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","75",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","296","110",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","253","142",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","157","75",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","100","57",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","64",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","222","86",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","158","98",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","281","154",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","405","197",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","412","72",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","609","120",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","117",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","296","147",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","88","50",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","91",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78","36",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","83",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","110","44",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","245","68",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170","65",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","69",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","279","139",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","262","92",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","37",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","195","68",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","107",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","286","74",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","225","86",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","111","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","172","81",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","224","64",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","490","197",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","452","216",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","147",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","375","228",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","297","103",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","349","104",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","254","126",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273","99",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","44",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","414","209",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","61",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","89","32",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","274","43",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","30",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","475","208",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","221","82",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","612","202",3
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","566","252",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1852","602",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","519","217",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","343","207",3
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","574","253",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","235","126",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","339","187",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","167",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","319","88",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","60",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","173",3
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273","107",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1480","211",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","301","64",3
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","63",3
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","158","44",3
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","136","54",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","574","157",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","772","156",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","518","228",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","510","94",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","490","75",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","65",3
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","424","161",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","387","115",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","707","204",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1181","455",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","391","161",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","344","154",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","741","167",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","882","167",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","79",3
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","328","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","660","186",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","476","96",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","73",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","376","121",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","312","109",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","80",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","894","307",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298","138",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","673","143",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","95",3
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","263","57",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","240","46",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1210","188",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2214","886",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","245","110",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1111","473",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298","82",3
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","75",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","398","219",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","192","88",3
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","287","97",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","439","149",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","269","98",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","307","135",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971-will-restaurants-in-new-york-city-nyc-be-permitted-to-offer-indoor-dining-at-85-capacity-or-more-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic ([Spectrum News](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline), [WABC](https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/)). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity ([nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page), [nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide](https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide)). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 0 0 3
3 Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021 Good Judgment Open As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., "tear gas"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 1 3
4 Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election Good Judgment Open Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 92 60 3
5 What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021 Good Judgment Open SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $100 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"$180 billion or more","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 24 3
6 At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 55 50 3
7 What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO. [{"name":"Less than 100.0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110.0 but less than 120.0","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130.0","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 46 33 3
8 What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower than 1.7%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 3.1%","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 96 67 3
9 Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year Good Judgment Open The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"The Father","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Judas and the Black Messiah","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sound of Metal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Trial of the Chicago 7","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 57 3
10 Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing Good Judgment Open The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank (David Fincher)","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 52 37 3
11 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 103 70 3
12 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021 Good Judgment Open As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 181 111 3
13 What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 93 72 3
14 Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 95 70 3
15 What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 64 41 3
16 Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km Good Judgment Open Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only launch an ICBM","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 164 96 3
17 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 Good Judgment Open A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 59 37 3
18 How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 Good Judgment Open On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 173 62 3
19 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options). [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 153 47 3
20 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 462 105 3
21 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 588 154 3
22 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 425 100 3
23 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 141 81 3
24 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts Good Judgment Open China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 76 41 3
25 Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations Good Judgment Open Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 512 369 3
26 For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 399 264 3
27 Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 416 339 3
28 In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law Good Judgment Open The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 189 3
29 How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 Good Judgment Open With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 298 197 3
30 What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 26 3
31 What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 180 92 3
32 What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 Good Judgment Open With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 154 53 3
33 Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 137 57 3
34 Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 539 347 3
35 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 48 3
36 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp Good Judgment Open Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 184 80 3
37 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa Good Judgment Open Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 211 75 3
38 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 Good Judgment Open On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 93 53 3
39 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 258 117 3
40 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 189 140 3
41 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 183 123 3
42 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 168 87 3
43 Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship Good Judgment Open The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 148 53 3
44 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities Good Judgment Open Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 157 86 3
45 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 117 75 3
46 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 296 110 3
47 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 253 142 3
48 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 157 75 3
49 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 100 57 3
50 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 94 64 3
51 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 222 86 3
52 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 98 3
53 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 281 154 3
54 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7a19161b08131c13191b0e131514093a1d15151e100f1e1d171f140e5419151745090f18101f190e472b0f1f090e1315145f484a39161b08131c13191b0e131514). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 405 197 3
55 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 412 72 3
56 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 609 120 3
57 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 167 117 3
58 Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 296 147 3
59 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 88 50 3
60 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 185 91 3
61 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 36 3
62 When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 216 83 3
63 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 110 44 3
64 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 245 68 3
65 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 170 65 3
66 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 126 69 3
67 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 279 139 3
68 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 262 92 3
69 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 37 3
70 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 195 68 3
71 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 211 107 3
72 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 286 74 3
73 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 225 86 3
74 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 111 76 3
75 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 172 81 3
76 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 224 64 3
77 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 490 197 3
78 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 452 216 3
79 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 282 147 3
80 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 375 228 3
81 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 297 103 3
82 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 349 104 3
83 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 254 126 3
84 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 273 99 3
85 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 44 3
86 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 414 209 3
87 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 115 61 3
88 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 89 32 3
89 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 274 43 3
90 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 144 30 3
91 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 475 208 3
92 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 221 82 3
93 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 612 202 3
94 What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 566 252 3
95 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1852 602 3
96 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 519 217 3
97 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 343 207 3
98 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 574 253 3
99 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 235 126 3
100 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 339 187 3
101 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 332 167 3
102 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 319 88 3
103 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 241 60 3
104 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 332 173 3
105 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 273 107 3
106 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1480 211 3
107 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 301 64 3
108 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 207 63 3
109 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 44 3
110 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 136 54 3
111 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 574 157 3
112 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 772 156 3
113 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 518 228 3
114 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 510 94 3
115 When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 490 75 3
116 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 216 65 3
117 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 424 161 3
118 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"England","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 387 115 3
119 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 707 204 3
120 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1181 455 3
121 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 391 161 3
122 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 344 154 3
123 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 741 167 3
124 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 882 167 3
125 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 210 79 3
126 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 328 76 3
127 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 660 186 3
128 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 476 96 3
129 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 329 73 3
130 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 376 121 3
131 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 312 109 3
132 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). [{"name":"0","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 284 80 3
133 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 894 307 3
134 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 298 138 3
135 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 673 143 3
136 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 249 95 3
137 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 263 57 3
138 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 240 46 3
139 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1210 188 3
140 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count. [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2214 886 3
141 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 245 110 3
142 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1111 473 3
143 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 298 82 3
144 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 285 75 3
145 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 398 219 3
146 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 192 88 3
147 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 287 97 3
148 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 439 149 3
149 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 269 98 3
150 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 307 135 3

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data/hypermind-questions.csv
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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.23958333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7604166666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5686274509803921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6734693877551021,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11224489795918367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.17346938775510204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04081632653061225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.8350515463917525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.12371134020618556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.04123711340206185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.17475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.3203883495145631,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.46601941747572817,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)","[{""name"":""In May or earlier"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in June (government goal)"",""probability"":0.3725490196078431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in July"",""probability"":0.4411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in August"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44029850746268656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5597014925373135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.020408163265306124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.28571428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.3673469387755102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.17346938775510204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.15306122448979592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.8285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.12658227848101267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.17721518987341775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.21518987341772153,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.24050632911392406,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.24050632911392406,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.05102040816326531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.5816326530612245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.29591836734693877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.07142857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8854166666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.05208333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.020833333333333336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.04166666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.888888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
","[]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
","[]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
","[]",,,3
"As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
","[]",,,3
"As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
","[]",,,3
"As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
","[]",,,3
"When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's ""primary"" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).*
The relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (""no measures"") rises at 45 or more in the ""7 days average"" version of the graph.
If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of ""no measures for workplace closures."" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.
*For this question, ""no measures for workplace closures"" will correspond to a 0 for the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..
","[]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. [{"name":"Yes, more than 121","probability":0.23958333333333337,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, not more than 121","probability":0.7604166666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.12745098039215685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5686274509803921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6734693877551021,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.11224489795918367,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.17346938775510204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.04081632653061225,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.8350515463917525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.12371134020618556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.04123711340206185,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H [{"name":"France","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Japan","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same medals count","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.02912621359223301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.17475728155339806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.3203883495145631,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.46601941747572817,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/) [{"name":"In May or earlier","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in June (government goal)","probability":0.3725490196078431,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in July","probability":0.4411764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in August","probability":0.08823529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.0784313725490196,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind To be considered "deadly", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". [{"name":"Saad-Eddine El Othmani","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelilah Benkirane","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else from PJD","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else not from PJD","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats. [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.030303030303030304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696969696969697,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44029850746268656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5597014925373135,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Denis Sassou Nguesso","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mathias Dzon","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Idriss Déby Itno","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Saleh Kezabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Succès Masra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... [{"name":"Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed","probability":0.9313725490196079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abshir Aden Ferro","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharif Sheikh Ahmed","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.020408163265306124,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.28571428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.3673469387755102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.17346938775510204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.15306122448979592,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.8285714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.15238095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.26732673267326734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.5346534653465347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.039603960396039604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.09900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.12658227848101267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.17721518987341775,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.21518987341772153,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.24050632911392406,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.24050632911392406,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.05102040816326531,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.5816326530612245,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.29591836734693877,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.07142857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8854166666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.05208333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.020833333333333336,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.04166666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.888888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11111111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate. [] 3
33 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate. [] 3
34 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate. [] 3
35 As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications. [] 3
36 As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications. [] 3
37 As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications. [] 3
38 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
39 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
40 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
41 When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's "primary" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* The relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line ("no measures") rises at 45 or more in the "7 days average" version of the graph. If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of "no measures for workplace closures." If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved. *For this question, "no measures for workplace closures" will correspond to a 0 for the "C2_Workplace closing" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the "C2_Workplace closing" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C.. [] 3

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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c","Omen","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32447474726652153,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6755252527334784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,1
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5509755750419132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44902442495808675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,1
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32447474726652153,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6755252527334784,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
3 Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5509755750419132,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44902442495808675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1

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@ -1,56 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5871432055669133105154549423449486"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4128567944330866894845450576550514"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317",,4
"Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4391425697965956603305816025607775"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5608574302034043396694183974392225"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148",,4
"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET.
At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Less than 70"",""probability"":""0.1672746246072319080776838488635544"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70-80"",""probability"":""0.2476901256544144696879613915347041"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81-90"",""probability"":""0.1952432196242796903539219437959104"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""91-100"",""probability"":""0.1164785241546611526816670444449205"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""101-110"",""probability"":""0.1216864057709885832664494211185656"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110"",""probability"":""0.1516271001884241959323163502423449"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","299",,4
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9020409953503909000562711280753918"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.09795900464960909994372887192460815"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","791",,3
"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021","PolyMarket"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2633073732555388130695659666251378"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7366926267444611869304340333748622"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","421",,4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.1883710726564277022850745484333587"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.7262394404243919097345492332829238"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.08538948691918038798037621828371755"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","233",,4
"Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and ""No"" otherwise.
This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4530636632783070484902652045781653"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5469363367216929515097347954218347"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","80",,4
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3751565387443145112653164613151741"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6248434612556854887346835386848259"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24",,3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5063624076489165994445641010569313"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4936375923510834005554358989430687"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.001003847031198783653878237328185352"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9989961529688012163461217626718146"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4270",,3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2401966918615018843983652361027869"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7598033081384981156016347638972131"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","7240",,4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07809788734415578259133846771486672"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9219021126558442174086615322851333"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","390",,3
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05203301629799111589572981466929816"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9479669837020088841042701853307018"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83",,3
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.02583516387131374839338592849894705"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.974164836128686251606614071501053"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","712",,3
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1239743371249700020666953031210272"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8760256628750299979333046968789728"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70",,4
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4464472380436790440847039771157174"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5535527619563209559152960228842826"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2303",,4
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05082943790130478653184589035805252"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9491705620986952134681541096419475"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","71",,2
"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1961684427606103841153688323774687"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8038315572393896158846311676225313"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05860162608821927934180182205734666"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9413983739117807206581981779426533"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93",,3
"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.696874352742622330981106127626817"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.303125647257377669018893872373183"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","51",,4
"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5084922355951987486962057308046653"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4915077644048012513037942691953347"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","49",,4
"Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7517224139225624292201826311776367"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2482775860774375707798173688223633"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","48",,4
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5871432055669133105154549423449486","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4128567944330866894845450576550514","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 317 4
3 Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March? https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march PolyMarket This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4391425697965956603305816025607775","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5608574302034043396694183974392225","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 148 4
4 How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Less than 70","probability":"0.1672746246072319080776838488635544","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70-80","probability":"0.2476901256544144696879613915347041","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81-90","probability":"0.1952432196242796903539219437959104","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"91-100","probability":"0.1164785241546611526816670444449205","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"101-110","probability":"0.1216864057709885832664494211185656","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110","probability":"0.1516271001884241959323163502423449","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 299 4
5 Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9020409953503909000562711280753918","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.09795900464960909994372887192460815","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 791 3
6 Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2633073732555388130695659666251378","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7366926267444611869304340333748622","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 421 4
7 Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.1883710726564277022850745484333587","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.7262394404243919097345492332829238","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.08538948691918038798037621828371755","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 233 4
8 Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4530636632783070484902652045781653","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5469363367216929515097347954218347","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 4
9 Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3751565387443145112653164613151741","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6248434612556854887346835386848259","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 3
10 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. []
11 Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3? https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. . [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5063624076489165994445641010569313","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4936375923510834005554358989430687","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 4
12 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.001003847031198783653878237328185352","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9989961529688012163461217626718146","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4270 3
13 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2401966918615018843983652361027869","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7598033081384981156016347638972131","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7240 4
14 Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed PolyMarket This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.07809788734415578259133846771486672","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9219021126558442174086615322851333","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 390 3
15 Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05203301629799111589572981466929816","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9479669837020088841042701853307018","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 3
16 Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to "Yes". [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.02583516387131374839338592849894705","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.974164836128686251606614071501053","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 712 3
17 Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1239743371249700020666953031210272","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8760256628750299979333046968789728","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 70 4
18 Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4464472380436790440847039771157174","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5535527619563209559152960228842826","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2303 4
19 Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30? https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30 PolyMarket This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05082943790130478653184589035805252","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9491705620986952134681541096419475","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 71 2
20 Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the American "observed mask usage" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1961684427606103841153688323774687","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8038315572393896158846311676225313","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 70 4
21 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05860162608821927934180182205734666","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9413983739117807206581981779426533","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 93 3
22 Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.696874352742622330981106127626817","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.303125647257377669018893872373183","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 51 4
23 Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5084922355951987486962057308046653","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4915077644048012513037942691953347","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 49 4
24 Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10? https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10 PolyMarket This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7517224139225624292201826311776367","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2482775860774375707798173688223633","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 48 4

591
data/predictit-questions.csv
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@ -1,591 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5445544554455446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45544554455445546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.8878504672897195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8712871287128713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4956521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21739130434782605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05217391304347825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6237623762376238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.37623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8640776699029126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.10679611650485436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.020000000000000018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.3739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.31304347826086953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.07826086956521738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.06956521739130433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.03478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.03478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.4909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.13636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/26/2021.
This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/26/2021 10:15 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The term ""as of"" refers to the time and date at which the market ends. The Rules for this market mean that it will resolve as Yes if Ms. Murkowski publicly identifies as Republican, as measured at the End Date of the market.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23364485981308405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.1775700934579439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09345794392523363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09345794392523363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.2079207920792079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3211009174311926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.30275229357798167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.2110091743119266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.6017699115044247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.2831858407079646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8971962616822429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.45614035087719296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.3596491228070175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.08771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03508771929824561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.35514018691588783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.32710280373831774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.5865384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.2788461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Einer Elhauge"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Douglas Melamed"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8613861386138614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4038461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6635514018691588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.2803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.35185185185185186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.35185185185185186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.07407407407407407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Lee"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.
Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.9252336448598131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anna Caballero"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.6018518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.11111111111111108,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.04629629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.04629629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5585585585585585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.24324324324324323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.09009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.7129629629629629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vernon Jones"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.
Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.
Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.4311926605504587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.3211009174311926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.10091743119266054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.07339449541284403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vicky Hartzler"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Brunner"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.4326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.28846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.17307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., ""delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.
Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.3551401869158879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.2990654205607477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.23364485981308414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.11214953271028039,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kirsten Gillibrand"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Beasley"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent.""
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0.6972477064220183,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shontel Brown"",""probability"":0.2477064220183486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barnes Jr."",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bryan Flannery"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Johnson"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tariq Shabazz"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley Smith"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dennis Kucinich"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Lasry"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Godlewski"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Nelson"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Mo Brooks"",""probability"":0.6422018348623852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katie Britt"",""probability"":0.2201834862385321,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lynda Blanchard"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Merrill"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Shelby"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Moore"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Sessions"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Bill Peduto"",""probability"":0.9705882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Gainey"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election","PredictIt","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract ""Under 2%"" shall resolve to Yes.
Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Under 2%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2% to 4%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4% to 6%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6% to 8%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8% to 10%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10% to 12%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12% to 14%"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14% to 16%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16% to 18%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18% or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1.6M"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.6M to 1.625M"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.625M to 1.65M"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.65M to 1.675M"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.675M to 1.7M"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.7M to 1.725M"",""probability"":0.28846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.725M to 1.75M"",""probability"":0.22115384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.75M to 1.775M"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.775M to 1.8M"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.8M or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Chuck Grassley"",""probability"":0.38095238095238093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat Grassley"",""probability"":0.2571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Carlin"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Whitaker"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ashley Hinson"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).
For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""3 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5"",""probability"":0.3333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7"",""probability"":0.5855855855855856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Ron Johnson"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kevin Nicholson"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Gallagher"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Walker"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Steil"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""59 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""84 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""59 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5315315315315313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.054054054054054036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.045045045045045036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.045045045045045036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.045045045045045036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.054054054054054036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 to 83"",""probability"":0.045045045045045036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""84 or more"",""probability"":0.054054054054054036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Melanie Stansbury"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Antoinette Lopez"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Georgene Louis"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Victor Reyes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Randi McGinn"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Patricia Caballero"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Selinda Guerrero"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Fernández"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vernon Jones"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7199/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-LA-02-House-special-election-runoff","PredictIt","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District.
Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Under 2%"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2% to 4%"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4% to 6%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6% to 8%"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8% to 10%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10% to 12%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12% to 14%"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14% to 16%"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16% to 18%"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18% or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Wendy Sherman as Deputy Sec. of State by 5/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7201/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wendy-Sherman-as-Deputy-Sec-of-State-by-5-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wendy Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Sherman be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of State in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Vanita Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen. by 5/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7202/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vanita-Gupta-as-Assoc-Attorney-Gen-by-5-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vanita Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Gupta be confirmed to position of Associate Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""58 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Colin Kahl as UnderSecDef for Policy by 5/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7203/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Colin-Kahl-as-UnderSecDef-for-Policy-by-5-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""58 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5238095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4380952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5445544554455446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.45544554455445546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5841584158415841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4158415841584158,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.04672897196261682,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.8878504672897195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5700000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8910891089108911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8712871287128713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.4956521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.21739130434782605,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.0608695652173913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.05217391304347825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.043478260869565216,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paperboy Prince","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Fernando Mateo","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6078431372549019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.39215686274509803,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6237623762376238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.37623762376237624,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5800000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.8640776699029126,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer Carroll Foy","probability":0.10679611650485436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer McClellan","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Fairfax","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.020000000000000018,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.3739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.31304347826086953,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.07826086956521738,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.06956521739130433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.03478260869565217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.03478260869565217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.4909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.24545454545454545,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.13636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.09999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/26/2021. This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/26/2021 10:15 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The term "as of" refers to the time and date at which the market ends. The Rules for this market mean that it will resolve as Yes if Ms. Murkowski publicly identifies as Republican, as measured at the End Date of the market. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.23364485981308405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.1775700934579439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.09345794392523363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.09345794392523363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.05607476635514017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.05607476635514017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.018691588785046724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.018691588785046724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.018691588785046724,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
33 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
34 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"33 or fewer","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or 41","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42 or 43","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
35 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.5046728971962617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.24299065420560748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.07476635514018691,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.07476635514018691,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.06542056074766356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.02803738317757009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
36 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
37 Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
38 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
39 Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
40 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16000000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
41 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
42 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.7920792079207921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.2079207920792079,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
43 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.3211009174311926,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.30275229357798167,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.2110091743119266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.045871559633027525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.027522935779816512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.027522935779816512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
44 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
45 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
46 Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
47 Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
48 Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Troy Carter","probability":0.6017699115044247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Karen Peterson","probability":0.2831858407079646,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chelsea Ardoin","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Belden Batiste","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Claston Bernard","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gary Chambers","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Harold John","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christopher Johnson","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brandon Jolicoeur","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lloyd Kelly","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greg Lirette","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mindy McConnell","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Desiree Ontiveros","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenette Porter","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sheldon Vincent Sr.","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
49 Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Lenín Moreno","probability":0.8971962616822429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Ortega","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolás Maduro","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Francisco Sagasti","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sebastián Piñera","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iván Duque","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. M. López Obrador","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Fernández","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luis Arce","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
50 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5346534653465347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4653465346534653,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
51 Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are "Xi", "Suga", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. [{"name":"Hassan Rouhani","probability":0.45614035087719296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.3596491228070175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Morrison","probability":0.08771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.03508771929824561,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Jong-un","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Moon Jae-in","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Narendra Modi","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joko Widodo","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
52 Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
53 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
54 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Alvin Bragg","probability":0.35514018691588783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tali Weinstein","probability":0.32710280373831774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tahanie Aboushi","probability":0.14018691588785046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eliza Orlins","probability":0.09345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Quart","probability":0.037383177570093455,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lucy Lang","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyrus Vance","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Florence","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Crotty","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
55 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
56 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
57 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.04807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.5865384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.2788461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
58 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Juan Arteaga","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Einer Elhauge","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gigi Sohn","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edward Smith","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Douglas Melamed","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
59 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.8613861386138614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
60 How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
61 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.4038461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.09615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.09615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.08653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.06730769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.04807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.04807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
62 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tim Ryan","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Acton","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emilia Sykes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joyce Beatty","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nan Whaley","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
63 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.6635514018691588,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.14018691588785046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.11214953271028036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.06542056074766356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
64 How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.2803738317757009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.24299065420560748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.21495327102803738,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.18691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.02803738317757009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
65 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Guy Reschenthaler","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ryan Costello","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Everett Stern","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlie Dent","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
66 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
67 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
68 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4752475247524752,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
69 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.35185185185185186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.35185185185185186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.07407407407407407,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thea Lee","probability":0.06481481481481481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.037037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
70 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
71 Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.9252336448598131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anna Caballero","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
72 Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
73 Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
74 Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.6018518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrej Babiš","probability":0.11111111111111108,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mario Draghi","probability":0.0648148148148148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Lukashenko","probability":0.04629629629629629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Rutte","probability":0.04629629629629629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pedro Sánchez","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Viktor Orbán","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.018518518518518514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
75 Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yonhy Lescano","probability":0.5585585585585585,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rafael López Aliaga","probability":0.24324324324324323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Forsyth","probability":0.09009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Verónika Mendoza","probability":0.027027027027027025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keiko Fujimori","probability":0.018018018018018018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hernando de Soto","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Urresti","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"César Acuña","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Beingolea","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julio Guzmán","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ollanta Humala","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Salaverry","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
76 Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Susan Wright","probability":0.7129629629629629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jana Sanchez","probability":0.1574074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jake Ellzey","probability":0.037037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Harrison","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Rodimer","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katrina Pierson","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sery Kim","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lydia Bean","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shawn Lassiter","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
77 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Lorena González","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colleen Echohawk","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bruce Harrell","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Grant Houston","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lance Randall","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenny Durkan","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
78 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Nicholas Burns","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Kritenbrink","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Shambaugh","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rahm Emanuel","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Claire McCaskill","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlene Barshefsky","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
79 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Doug Collins","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Herschel Walker","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vernon Jones","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Carr","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kelly Loeffler","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Perdue","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoff Duncan","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Kemp","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
80 Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically. Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market: * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded [{"name":"New Hampshire","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nevada","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iowa","probability":0.0857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"South Carolina","probability":0.05714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
81 Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
82 Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06999999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
83 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Eric Schmitt","probability":0.4311926605504587,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Greitens","probability":0.3211009174311926,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jason Smith","probability":0.10091743119266054,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann Wagner","probability":0.07339449541284403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vicky Hartzler","probability":0.018348623853211007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Blunt","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Kehoe","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Ashcroft","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Billy Long","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carl Edwards","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Brunner","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
84 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Mark Walker","probability":0.4326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lara Trump","probability":0.28846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat McCrory","probability":0.17307692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Budd","probability":0.06730769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Forest","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burr","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Meadows","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
85 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
86 Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43999999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
87 How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"38 or fewer","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"39","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"41","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"43","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
88 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
89 Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
90 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
91 Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
92 What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election. The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market. Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President. Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Dem. House & Senate","probability":0.3551401869158879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rep. House & Senate","probability":0.2990654205607477,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House, D Senate","probability":0.23364485981308414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House, R Senate","probability":0.11214953271028039,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
93 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kirsten Gillibrand","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
94 Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
95 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Jeff Jackson","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cheri Beasley","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Erica Smith","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Lee Watkins","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heath Shuler","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
96 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election. Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be "Independent." PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.8461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Independent","probability":0.11538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
97 Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0.6972477064220183,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shontel Brown","probability":0.2477064220183486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barnes Jr.","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bryan Flannery","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Johnson","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tariq Shabazz","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley Smith","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dennis Kucinich","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
98 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ron Kind","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Lasry","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Godlewski","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Nelson","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
99 Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
100 Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Mo Brooks","probability":0.6422018348623852,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katie Britt","probability":0.2201834862385321,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lynda Blanchard","probability":0.06422018348623854,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Merrill","probability":0.045871559633027525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Shelby","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Moore","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Sessions","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
101 Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Bill Peduto","probability":0.9705882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Gainey","probability":0.029411764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
102 What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election PredictIt The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract "Under 2%" shall resolve to Yes. Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Under 2%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2% to 4%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4% to 6%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6% to 8%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8% to 10%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10% to 12%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12% to 14%","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14% to 16%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16% to 18%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18% or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
103 How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Fewer than 1.6M","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.6M to 1.625M","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.625M to 1.65M","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.65M to 1.675M","probability":0.08653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.675M to 1.7M","probability":0.18269230769230768,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.7M to 1.725M","probability":0.28846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.725M to 1.75M","probability":0.22115384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.75M to 1.775M","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.775M to 1.8M","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.8M or more","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
104 Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
105 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Chuck Grassley","probability":0.38095238095238093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat Grassley","probability":0.2571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Carlin","probability":0.13333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Whitaker","probability":0.13333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ashley Hinson","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
106 How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources). For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"3 or fewer","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5","probability":0.3333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7","probability":0.5855855855855856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9","probability":0.04504504504504504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or more","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
107 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ron Johnson","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kevin Nicholson","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Gallagher","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Walker","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Steil","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
108 How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "59 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "84 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"59 or fewer","probability":0.5315315315315313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 to 62","probability":0.054054054054054036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 to 65","probability":0.045045045045045036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 68","probability":0.045045045045045036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 to 71","probability":0.045045045045045036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"72 to 74","probability":0.054054054054054036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 to 77","probability":0.06306306306306306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 to 80","probability":0.06306306306306306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81 to 83","probability":0.045045045045045036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"84 or more","probability":0.054054054054054036,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
109 Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Melanie Stansbury","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Antoinette Lopez","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Georgene Louis","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Victor Reyes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Randi McGinn","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Patricia Caballero","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Selinda Guerrero","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Francisco Fernández","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
110 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
111 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Brian Kemp","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vernon Jones","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Doug Collins","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Herschel Walker","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
112 What will be the margin in the LA-02 House special election runoff? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7199/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-LA-02-House-special-election-runoff PredictIt The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for both candidates officially reported, in the runoff of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Under 2%","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2% to 4%","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4% to 6%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6% to 8%","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8% to 10%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10% to 12%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12% to 14%","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14% to 16%","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16% to 18%","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18% or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
113 Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
114 How many Senators vote to confirm Wendy Sherman as Deputy Sec. of State by 5/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7201/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wendy-Sherman-as-Deputy-Sec-of-State-by-5-15 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wendy Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Sherman be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of State in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Sherman to the position of Deputy Secretary of State be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
115 How many Senators vote to confirm Vanita Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen. by 5/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7202/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Vanita-Gupta-as-Assoc-Attorney-Gen-by-5-15 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Vanita Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Gupta be confirmed to position of Associate Attorney General in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "58 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Gupta to the position of Associate Attorney General be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"52","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"58 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
116 How many Senators vote to confirm Colin Kahl as UnderSecDef for Policy by 5/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7203/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Colin-Kahl-as-UnderSecDef-for-Policy-by-5-15 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "58 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"52","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"58 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3

149
data/smarkets-questions.csv
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@ -1,149 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005523040145082845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.017888055395268318,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05316956557579754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.34638529387519573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07171708845107574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.0329733740004946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.025719231720385784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.35842057538537625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05498310114582474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0027203033550408044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.030500370950457503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.009484966328369536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009484966328369536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.1281418950962724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8622782889120744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.011361959569130883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007746790615316511,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08779696030692045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.1570016231370813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010550391028478675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024568393094289504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041021100782056945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024568393094289504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.01601003393832079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.02169101372288623,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041021100782056945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020510550391028472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.01601003393832079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028404898922827205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06706507304116864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03688947912055481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03511878412276818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03511878412276818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.04471004869411243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007377895824110962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.054670208056662235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2107864836948502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04483098717833767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06401864969066619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.06895005828028333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.19080068143100512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6313996234197077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.05174376487633241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.07389009624340268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0985201283245369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.08279002380213185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.12315016040567113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.11249094484114663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Truss"",""probability"":0.055986753596191666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thérèse Coffey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.15223015626616995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Eustice"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alister Jack"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Hart"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Baroness Evans of Bowes Park"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oliver Dowden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Milling"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2967147740220281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7032852259779718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8215239268843705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.1283631135756829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03542821934688847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.014684740193058122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.23187626092804303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.0996637525218561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10342972427706794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.06899798251513115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.0672494956287828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14942837928715536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.05850706119704102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.0707464694014795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.030531271015467387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04478816408876934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.4574565416285453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.23760292772186642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.30494053064958826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9490945674044262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.02394366197183098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.025150905432595565,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.00010060362173038226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44574557708508844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5542544229149116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.7013516015552675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.2986483984447324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.92151517999812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.014475044647053292,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01174922455117962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05226055080364695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4935064935064935,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3537051184110008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08488243782361429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06790595025889143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.6636937568894679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33630624311053214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6111636707663197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.09145380006307156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.1142646904236308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.0875643855776306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0.0955534531693472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish First Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister","Smarkets","Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Kate Forbes"",""probability"":0.32232651692926584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":0.32232651692926584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.14582634931277239,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Leonard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0.20952061682869597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"French Presidential election to happen before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1252665739452944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8747334260547056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?","https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge","Smarkets","Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17219113215669393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8278088678433061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0832417307884481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9167582692115519,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12472560367192177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8752743963280782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.40963460593150913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.33442569228248403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2559397017860069,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5200299513290902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47997004867090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.4154490460679386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.3447184737087017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.23564448580735226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.004187994416007445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5027755027755028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49722449722449724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.36488833746898264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.36488833746898264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05173697270471464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08858560794044665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04590570719602978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.062034739454094295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020719602977667496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.001240694789081886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.3082258288250797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02316548758496324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03301428769593563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05548619780829518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.03856290747676515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.03856290747676515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16507143847967817,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.02774309890414759,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03648217505895408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08669718407546123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.03856290747676515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013871549452073795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013871549452073795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.12068248023304201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.1802162162162162,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.21199999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.1257297297297297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.024540540540540536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.01081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.03729729729729729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06356756756756755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.019675675675675672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.0721081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.06972972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05405405405405404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02702702702702702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05405405405405404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.04918918918918918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.9351704996034894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.02914353687549564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.006641554321966694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.02478191911181602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.000991276764472641,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0032712133227597146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13724069209167497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.862759307908325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.1290172766115549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.31813115363180383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5528515697566413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.482994803967879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.29822075263737996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1312391749330814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.043772634230829784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.043772634230829784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12727939155136078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8727206084486392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.8716389548693586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.12836104513064134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.6515410958904109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.1829337899543379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0380517503805175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.11605783866057838,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.0019025875190258753,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.009512937595129375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.030273780273780273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.09749034749034748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.6052123552123552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.19498069498069495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.05852930852930852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.013513513513513513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin"",""probability"":0.8051441932969603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Party candidate"",""probability"":0.19485580670303976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.6037286115603984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.3669021877926279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.029369200646973695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6864825123411405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31351748765885934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9107025607353907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08929743926460933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5962437395659432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.14148580968280466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07587646076794657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.03797996661101836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09933222036727879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.04908180300500834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8558522783679142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.055197061451404746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.0708825573314802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.018068102849200837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4744868035190616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5255131964809384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.44550898203592815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5544910179640719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5351127473538886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4648872526461113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":0.47237606375793595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0.527623936242064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18237860394537178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8176213960546281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.04994645117320612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.12170187907701295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.3091227728556129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.32450589037094735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.19472300652322072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5199615619813052,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.4800384380186949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.5528596187175043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.4471403812824957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumfriesshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5926263916773133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.40737360832268665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"East Lothian","https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6236568930977964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3034966308504826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.072846476051721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Eastwood","https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1221629442083371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6560448967944449,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.22124988109959098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.061352611052982016,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.061352611052982016,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Southern","https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5199015903699148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3755381776645286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.10456023196555662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Western","https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4800384380186949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.5199615619813052,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31186058609328937,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6881394139067106,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.2641392809312867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.7358607190687133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6441620333598093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.35583796664019063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.683055775839281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.316944224160719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6907772570519056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.30922274294809443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6635258645057949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33647413549420524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.5093688822597184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.4906311177402815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brecon and Radnorshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire","Smarkets","Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Caerphilly","https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly","Smarkets","Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4452631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.417719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.13701754385964912,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff North","https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff West","https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.5714574694042682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.4285425305957317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ceredigion","https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion","Smarkets","Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Clwyd South","https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south","Smarkets","Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gower","https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower","Smarkets","Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Llanelli","https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli","Smarkets","Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4931657646087515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.5068342353912485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Preseli Pembrokeshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire","Smarkets","Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8103726178060112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1896273821939888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Vale of Clwyd","https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd","Smarkets","Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.6174792531120332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3825207468879668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alyn and Deeside","https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside","Smarkets","Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Delyn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn","Smarkets","Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.6619637750238322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33803622497616775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.8871336313959265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.11286636860407351,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.5097352024922117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4549260124610591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.013921339563862926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0019470404984423674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.019470404984423675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""60 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13477606951871657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""61–64"",""probability"":0.22894385026737968,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–68"",""probability"":0.28810160427807485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69–72"",""probability"":0.23211898395721928,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or more"",""probability"":0.11605949197860964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Bexley & Bromley","https://smarkets.com/event/42128456/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-bexley-bromley","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.862759307908325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.13724069209167497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Croydon & Sutton","https://smarkets.com/event/42128462/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-croydon-sutton","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Croydon & Sutton at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.2747053490480508,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.7252946509519492,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Havering & Redbridge","https://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridge","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: South West","https://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-west","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5733333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33777777777777773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08888888888888888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: West Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election third place","https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.5926351112681032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.3199399505475097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.022077004592016957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.045302013422818796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.020045920169551396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Israeli legislative election","https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election","Smarkets","When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.40705734089476997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.25183784919134633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.13211510186935518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.20898970804452846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Liverpool City Council control","https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control","Smarkets","Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall control"",""probability"":0.1719026362334709,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.7138044302198264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.05811505095595048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.056177882590752126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Airdrie and Shotts by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8279869381482905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.11717249327698809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.05484056857472148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conservative national equivalent vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share","Smarkets","What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""34% or under"",""probability"":0.23142013251377028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35%"",""probability"":0.17354514249221684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36%"",""probability"":0.19006944998802588,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""37%"",""probability"":0.17354514249221684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38% or over"",""probability"":0.23142013251377028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Labour national equivalent vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share","Smarkets","What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""30% or under"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31%"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32%"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33%"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34% or over"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat","https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/scotland/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat","Smarkets","Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03746229444390386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009730466089325679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025591125814926532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.027050695728325382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10810547825240828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.06490220881580228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06276150627615062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.00544906101002238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0810547825240829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07482728422691447,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03892186435730271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.013914566507735718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030359054198696115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.023158509292595112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009730466089325677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2904544127663715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Gender of next Conservative leader https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson? [{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019 Smarkets [{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005523040145082845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.017888055395268318,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05316956557579754,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.34638529387519573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.07171708845107574,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.0329733740004946,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.025719231720385784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.35842057538537625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05498310114582474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.0027203033550408044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.030500370950457503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader Smarkets [{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}] 2
6 Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets [{"probability":0.009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.1281418950962724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8622782889120744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05664798777381558,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9433520122261844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Jeremy Corbyn","probability":0.011361959569130883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nigel Farage","probability":0.007746790615316511,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jo Swinson","probability":0.08779696030692045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keir Starmer","probability":0.1570016231370813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.010550391028478675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.024568393094289504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.041021100782056945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.024568393094289504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.01601003393832079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.02169101372288623,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Grieve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.041021100782056945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.020510550391028472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Watson","probability":0.01601003393832079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.028404898922827205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.06706507304116864,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.03688947912055481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.03511878412276818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.03511878412276818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ken Clarke","probability":0.04471004869411243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Harriet Harman","probability":0.007377895824110962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Beckett","probability":0.054670208056662235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2107864836948502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 NY-22 Congressional District Winner https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race Smarkets Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6297324817180413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.3702675182819587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Year of next General Election https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020 Smarkets [{"name":"2020","probability":0.04483098717833767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.06401864969066619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.06895005828028333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.19080068143100512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.6313996234197077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Year of next Scottish referendum https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum Smarkets [{"probability":0.07764344119085889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.04822139911943532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17471521420085262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.09986721643720735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2729750506674121,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3265776783842337,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 Next Cabinet Member to leave https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave Smarkets [{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.05174376487633241,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.07389009624340268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0985201283245369,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Buckland","probability":0.08279002380213185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ben Wallace","probability":0.12315016040567113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.11249094484114663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alok Sharma","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Truss","probability":0.055986753596191666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thérèse Coffey","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.15223015626616995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Eustice","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Jenrick","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Grant Shapps","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brandon Lewis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alister Jack","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Hart","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Baroness Evans of Bowes Park","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Oliver Dowden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Milling","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Party to get the most seats https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4026069395997797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.5463557921791813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0510372682210391,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2967147740220281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7032852259779718,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Year of next General Election in Hungary https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election Smarkets The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it? [{"name":"2022 or earlier","probability":0.3964413291096583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021 Smarkets [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.8215239268843705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.1283631135756829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03542821934688847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.014684740193058122,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 Winner of the 2022 French presidential election https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"François Baroin","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olivier Faure","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Marie Bigard","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean Lassalle","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joachim Son-Forget","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernard Cazeneuve","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arnaud Montebourg","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ségolène Royal","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florian Philippot","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","probability":null}] 2
18 Macron first round vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request. [{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.23187626092804303,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.0996637525218561,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10342972427706794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.06899798251513115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.0672494956287828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14942837928715536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.05850706119704102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.0707464694014795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0.030531271015467387,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04478816408876934,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 Gender of the next Labour leader https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first? [{"name":"Female","probability":0.5508474576271186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Male","probability":0.4491525423728813,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 First Minister to leave the Cabinet? https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go Smarkets With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? [{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.4085036637099884,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.5914963362900116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 Keir Starmer exit date https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date Smarkets When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party? [{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.4574565416285453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.23760292772186642,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.30494053064958826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 2021 London mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9490945674044262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.02394366197183098,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.025150905432595565,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Kurten","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Piers Corbyn","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Farah London","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0.00010060362173038226,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences Smarkets Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44574557708508844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5542544229149116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.7013516015552675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.2986483984447324,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7560150032019028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24398499679809715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021 Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.92151517999812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.014475044647053292,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01174922455117962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05226055080364695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp Smarkets Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4935064935064935,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3537051184110008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08488243782361429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06790595025889143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Local elections highest vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share Smarkets Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.6636937568894679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33630624311053214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Simon Coveney","probability":0.6111636707663197,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paschal Donohoe","probability":0.09145380006307156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Helen McEntee","probability":0.1142646904236308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josepha Madigan","probability":0.0875643855776306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Harris","probability":0.0955534531693472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Humphreys","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eoghan Murphy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charles Flanagan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Kyne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Bruton","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kehoe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heydon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe McHugh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Ring","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Creed","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colm Brophy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Irish reunification referendum before 2023 https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023 Smarkets Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17627357659086904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8237264234091309,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 Next Scottish First Minister https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister Smarkets Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request. [{"name":"Kate Forbes","probability":0.32232651692926584,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":0.32232651692926584,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley-Anne Somerville","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Russell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.14582634931277239,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Leonard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":0.20952061682869597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jackson Carlaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 French Presidential election to happen before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1252665739452944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8747334260547056,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge? https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge Smarkets Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17219113215669393,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8278088678433061,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken Smarkets Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0832417307884481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9167582692115519,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021 Smarkets Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12472560367192177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8752743963280782,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022 Smarkets Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16540927951716333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8345907204828368,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 Next Fianna Fáil leader https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin Smarkets Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Jim O'Callaghan","probability":0.40963460593150913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael McGrath","probability":0.33442569228248403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dara Calleary","probability":0.2559397017860069,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas Byrne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Niall Collins","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Lawless","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul McAuliffe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darragh O'Brien","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norma Foley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Troy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McGuinness","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jack Chambers","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Browne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Rabbitte","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seán Ó Fearghail","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eamon O'Cuiv","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref Smarkets [{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election? https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5200299513290902,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47997004867090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 Next general election overall majority https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority Smarkets Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.4154490460679386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.3447184737087017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.23564448580735226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.004187994416007445,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Date of next Japanese general election https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election Smarkets When will the next Japanese general election take place? [{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Belarus to have a General Election in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Joe Biden to serve full term https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term Smarkets Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5027755027755028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.49722449722449724,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 2024 Democratic presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.36488833746898264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.36488833746898264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05173697270471464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08858560794044665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04590570719602978,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.062034739454094295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020719602977667496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.001240694789081886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 2024 Republican presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.3082258288250797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.02316548758496324,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03301428769593563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.05548619780829518,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.03856290747676515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.03856290747676515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.16507143847967817,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.02774309890414759,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.03648217505895408,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.08669718407546123,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.03856290747676515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013871549452073795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013871549452073795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.12068248023304201,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 2024 US presidential winner https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner Smarkets Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.1802162162162162,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.21199999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.1257297297297297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.024540540540540536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.01081081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.03729729729729729,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06356756756756755,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.019675675675675672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.0721081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.06972972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02702702702702702,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.04918918918918918,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 2021 London mayoral election second place https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place Smarkets Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.9351704996034894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.02914353687549564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.006641554321966694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.02478191911181602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.000991276764472641,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0032712133227597146,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat Smarkets Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13724069209167497,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.862759307908325,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election Smarkets Contracts available on request. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 London Assembly: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority Smarkets Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021 Smarkets How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon? [{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.1290172766115549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.31813115363180383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5528515697566413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 2021 Norwegian election: Most votes https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets) [{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.482994803967879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.29822075263737996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1312391749330814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request. [{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 Brexit Party to control any council https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12727939155136078,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8727206084486392,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"0–2","probability":0.8716389548693586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.12836104513064134,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 Joe Biden's first international visit https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit Smarkets Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States? [{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.6515410958904109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.1829337899543379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0380517503805175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.11605783866057838,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.0019025875190258753,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.009512937595129375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 Biden approval on day 100 https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100 Smarkets What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.030273780273780273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.09749034749034748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.6052123552123552,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.19498069498069495,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.05852930852930852,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.013513513513513513,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post Smarkets Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary Smarkets Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3994252873563218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6005747126436781,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021 Smarkets [{"name":"GERB","probability":0.6037286115603984,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"BSP","probability":0.3669021877926279,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"ITN","probability":0.029369200646973695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share Smarkets What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.32353451266042316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45.0–49.9%","probability":0.4250780437044745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50% or over","probability":0.2513874436351023,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July? https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july Smarkets Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6864825123411405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31351748765885934,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 London elections: In-person voting https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting Smarkets Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only? [{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9107025607353907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08929743926460933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 $2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days Smarkets Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021 Smarkets Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5962437395659432,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.14148580968280466,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.07587646076794657,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.03797996661101836,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.09933222036727879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.04908180300500834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 Trump to create new political party https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party Smarkets Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election Smarkets [{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8558522783679142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.055197061451404746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.0708825573314802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.018068102849200837,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 2022 House of Representatives control https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections? [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3759190298863745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6240809701136256,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4744868035190616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5255131964809384,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 2022 Senate control https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control Smarkets Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.44550898203592815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5544910179640719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6005369127516779,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39946308724832214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 2022 House and Senate control https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control Smarkets Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? [{"name":"D House / D Senate","probability":0.2841289413422582,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House / R Senate","probability":0.12585872820151486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / D Senate","probability":0.2230051083318654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / R Senate","probability":0.36700722212436143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5351127473538886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4648872526461113,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure) https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout Smarkets [{"name":"50% and below","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51-53%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54-56%","probability":0.47237606375793595,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57%+","probability":0.527623936242064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress Smarkets Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18237860394537178,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8176213960546281,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 2021 Israeli election: Likud seats https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats Smarkets How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election? [{"name":"26 or fewer","probability":0.04994645117320612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27–28","probability":0.12170187907701295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29–30","probability":0.3091227728556129,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31–32","probability":0.32450589037094735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33 or more","probability":0.19472300652322072,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election? [{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.5199615619813052,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.4800384380186949,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 Next G20 leader to leave https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave Smarkets Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position? [{"name":"Yoshihide Suga (Japan)","probability":0.5845854201446856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron (France)","probability":0.2107679465776294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden (United States)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)","probability":0.20464663327768506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau (Canada)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin (Russia)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping (China)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 Year of next Canadian federal election https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election Smarkets When will the next Canadian federal election take place? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.4012149786925378,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17109438752380088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023 or later","probability":0.42769063378366123,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament Smarkets Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11546469808820746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8845353019117925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 Brian Rose vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share Smarkets What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.5528596187175043,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.4471403812824957,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 Aberdeenshire West https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5665742024965326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.43342579750346744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 Ayr https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Dumbarton https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6490849447513812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.35091505524861877,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 Dumfriesshire https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5926263916773133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.40737360832268665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
93 East Lothian https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6236568930977964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3034966308504826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.072846476051721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
94 Eastwood https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1221629442083371,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
95 Edinburgh Central https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6560448967944449,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.22124988109959098,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.061352611052982016,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.061352611052982016,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
96 Edinburgh Southern https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5199015903699148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3755381776645286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.10456023196555662,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
97 Edinburgh Western https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4800384380186949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.5199615619813052,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
98 Galloway and West Dumfries https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
99 Glasgow Kelvin https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7601773113804958,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.07535733671069297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.16446535190881129,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
100 North East Fife https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.32412084246640616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.6758791575335938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
101 2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour) https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour Smarkets Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
102 2021 Senedd election: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority Smarkets Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31186058609328937,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6881394139067106,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
103 Nicola Sturgeon exit date https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date Smarkets When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.2641392809312867,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.7358607190687133,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
104 Aberdeen South and North Kincardine https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6441620333598093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.35583796664019063,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
105 Aberdeenshire East https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.23809523809523808,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
106 Angus North and Mearns https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns Smarkets Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.683055775839281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.316944224160719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
107 Banffshire and Buchan Coast https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast Smarkets Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
108 Edinburgh Pentlands https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands Smarkets Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
109 Moray https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray Smarkets Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6165456089048204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3834543910951797,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
110 Perthshire North https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6907772570519056,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.30922274294809443,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
111 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6635258645057949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33647413549420524,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
112 Referendum on monarchy by 2024 https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024 Smarkets Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1803263907672888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8196736092327112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
113 Aberconwy https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy Smarkets Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
114 Blaenau Gwent https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent Smarkets Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5093688822597184,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.4906311177402815,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
115 Brecon and Radnorshire https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire Smarkets Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
116 Caerphilly https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly Smarkets Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4452631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.417719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.13701754385964912,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
117 Cardiff Central https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
118 Cardiff North https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
119 Cardiff West https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5714574694042682,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.4285425305957317,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
120 Ceredigion https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion Smarkets Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
121 Clwyd South https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south Smarkets Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
122 Gower https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower Smarkets Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
123 Llanelli https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli Smarkets Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4931657646087515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.5068342353912485,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
124 Preseli Pembrokeshire https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire Smarkets Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8103726178060112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1896273821939888,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
125 Vale of Clwyd https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd Smarkets Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
126 Vale of Glamorgan https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan Smarkets Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
127 Wrexham https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham Smarkets Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.6174792531120332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3825207468879668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
128 Alyn and Deeside https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside Smarkets Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
129 Delyn https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn Smarkets Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
130 Newport East https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east Smarkets Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
131 Newport West https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west Smarkets Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.6619637750238322,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33803622497616775,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
132 Ynys Môn https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon Smarkets Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.8871336313959265,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.11286636860407351,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
133 Hartlepool by-election https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request. [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5097352024922117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4549260124610591,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Reform UK","probability":0.013921339563862926,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0019470404984423674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.019470404984423675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
134 Joe Biden exit date https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date Smarkets When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States? [{"name":"2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
135 2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats Smarkets How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"60 or fewer","probability":0.13477606951871657,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"61–64","probability":0.22894385026737968,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–68","probability":0.28810160427807485,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69–72","probability":0.23211898395721928,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or more","probability":0.11605949197860964,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
136 London Assembly: Bexley & Bromley https://smarkets.com/event/42128456/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-bexley-bromley Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.862759307908325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.13724069209167497,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
137 London Assembly: Croydon & Sutton https://smarkets.com/event/42128462/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-croydon-sutton Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Croydon & Sutton at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.2747053490480508,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.7252946509519492,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
138 London Assembly: Havering & Redbridge https://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridge Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
139 London Assembly: South West https://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-west Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5733333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33777777777777773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08888888888888888,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
140 London Assembly: West Central https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
141 2021 London mayoral election third place https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place Smarkets Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.5926351112681032,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.3199399505475097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.022077004592016957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.045302013422818796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.020045920169551396,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
142 Year of next Israeli legislative election https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election Smarkets When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.40705734089476997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.25183784919134633,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.13211510186935518,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.20898970804452846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
143 Liverpool City Council control https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control Smarkets Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request. [{"name":"No overall control","probability":0.1719026362334709,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.7138044302198264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.05811505095595048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.056177882590752126,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
144 Airdrie and Shotts by-election https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8279869381482905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.11717249327698809,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.05484056857472148,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
145 Conservative national equivalent vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share Smarkets What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"34% or under","probability":0.23142013251377028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"35%","probability":0.17354514249221684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36%","probability":0.19006944998802588,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"37%","probability":0.17354514249221684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38% or over","probability":0.23142013251377028,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
146 Labour national equivalent vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share Smarkets What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"30% or under","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31%","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32%","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33%","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34% or over","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
147 Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/scotland/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat Smarkets Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2

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data/template-questions.csv
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@ -1,2 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform","[{""name"":""Option 1"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 2"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Option 3"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some long description which may contain html",15,2
1 title url platform options description numforecasts stars
2 Some title someurl.com some platform [{"name":"Option 1","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 2","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Option 3","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] Some long description which may contain html 15 2

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data/williamhill-questions.csv
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209
data/xrisk-questions.csv
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@ -1,209 +0,0 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Total existential risk by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)
Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk in the 21st century","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extinction risk in the next century","https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Risk of extinction over the next five centuries","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: At or above 30%
The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.
While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.
In 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..
Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.
For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).
N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential disaster will do us in","https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Global catastrophic risk per year.","https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.2%
Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: >20%
I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence","https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807","X-risk estimates","The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0-10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%
Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~5%
This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI-induced existential catastrophe","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.05%
This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk from AI","https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5-30%
I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance of humanity not surviving AI","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%
Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)","https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 33-50%
This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.585,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.05%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic","https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)
The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.00004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism","https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0000019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0001%
The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0001%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0002%
This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0100%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)
See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~33% (""about one in three"")
Ord: ""one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.""""","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904","X-risk estimates","This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~20%
This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~2%
I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper","http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)
I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30-40%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904","X-risk estimates","Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905","X-risk estimates","Increased from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.1%
Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907","X-risk estimates","Increased from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests","https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless","https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~20-30%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~30%
There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~30%
I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~50%
Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Soft AGI takeoff","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.5%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~5%
I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Per year chance of nuclear war","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 1.10%
In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.011,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.38%
In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.020000000000000018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Total existential risk by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6) Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability." This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his "business as usual" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Existential risk in the 21st century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Extinction risk in the next century https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
6 Risk of extinction over the next five centuries https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: At or above 30% The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent” [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ≤50% ("no better than fifty-fifty") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%. While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event. In 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.. Therefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?. For these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.). N.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 Existential disaster will do us in https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9965,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 Global catastrophic risk per year. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.2% Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about "global catastrophic risk". [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg X-risk estimates Actual estimate: >20% I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 X-risk estimates The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0-10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~0.1-1% Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied "I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.945,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~5% This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 AI-induced existential catastrophe https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.05% This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 Existential risk from AI https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5-30% I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased." I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 Chance of humanity not surviving AI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40) X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33% Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted "This number fluctuates a lot". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an "actually superintelligent" AI, whereas for "AI in general" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more "optimism" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?) https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 33-50% This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said "two obvious Schelling points" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.585,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.05% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8) The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include "accidental" release of a bioengineered pathogen. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.00004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0000019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999981,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0001% The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for "synthetic biology" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0001% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0002% This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.5% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0100% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50) See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do) https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~33% ("about one in three") Ord: "one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen? My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together."" Arden Koehler replies ""Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?"" Ord replies: ""That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."" [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 X-risk estimates This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was "4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~20% This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time. "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. [For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~2% I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”) I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999945,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30-40% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.030000000000000027,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 X-risk estimates Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905 X-risk estimates Increased from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.1% Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907 X-risk estimates Increased from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~20-30% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~30% There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~30% I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~50% Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Soft AGI takeoff https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.5% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~5% I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 Per year chance of nuclear war https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 1.10% In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.011,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.989,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.38% In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0038,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9962,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.020000000000000018,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2

2
src/index.js
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@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = () => {
"optionsstringforsearch": element.optionsstringforsearch
})
} )
console.log(preparedforcsv)
//console.log(preparedforcsv)
let mergedcsv = csvfromjson(preparedforcsv)
writefile(mergedcsv, "metaforecasts", "")